Open Forum
New
Delhi, 25 January 2019
Kolkata Gathbandhan
A NEW ‘UNITED’ ARRIVAL
By Dr S.Saraswathi
(Former Director,
ICSSR, New Delhi)
2019 General Election is undoubtedly heyday
for “Gathbandhans” -- a term that
deserves to be entered in English dictionaries by virtue of its wide usage and
meaningful sound. Several combinations of political parties are appearing on
daily basis in this election season making people wonder which ones will
ultimately survive as serious contenders for people’s choice. The latest show was witnessed in Kolkata on
19th January under the active sponsorship of Mamata Banerjee, Chief Minister
of West Bengal and TMC President.
A total of 23 parties attended the rally
convened by the TMC which was claimed to be an anti-BJP “United India” rally.
The Congress sent two representatives, but the two top leaders -- present and
previous party presidents -- stayed away perhaps to keep its full entry into
the alliance in suspense. Hence, it was neither a reincarnation of UPA as UPA
III nor the Third Front, whose main character is to remain anti-BJP and
anti-Congress. Most of the non-Congress parties were represented by their
presidents.
It was an occasion that confirmed togetherness
recently built between some bitter rivals like the SP and the BSP, Congress and
the JD(S), and Congress and the TDP. It is an admission of the popularity of
the BJP that requires pooling the strength of two dozen parties for electoral
fight. It reminds us of the vow of the “Three
Musketeers” of Dumas with a small correction, “All for one, and All against
one” meaning one candidate for all parties in every constituency, and all
parties against one party/one leader.
Notable was the presence of a BJP MP Shatrughan
Sinha and two rebel BJP members -- Yashwant Sinha and Arun Shourie, and absence of a few
non-NDA parties -- TRS from Telangana, BJD of Odisha, YSR Congress of Andhra
Pradesh, and PDP of Jammu and Kashmir. Communist parties also did not
participate in the rally organised by their arch rival.
Mamata Banerjee, from her statements, appears
to have changed her earlier stance of anti-Congress and anti-BJP Third Front
for which she made some efforts with Chandrasekhar Rao of TRS. Whatever may be her political
calculations in changing the target(s) of the gathbandhan she is promoting, constituent units of this “unity”
seem to be unaware and unconcerned, each concentrating on its own aim. Their common
object is to displace the BJP, which is considered as a stumbling block to
their sub-national aspirations even if it brings a vacuum in governance. The convener and many other parties, in the gathbandhan are also not happy with the
“big brother” attitude of the Congress.
The Front, therefore, defies numbering at the
present stage and can be identified by the place of the first rally. The second
and third meetings are likely to take place in Amaravati and Delhi. The
Kolkata Gathbandhan
comprises certain state-level pre-poll or post-poll alliances formed against
the BJP and also tested recently. Among them, the BSP and SP alliance has
already arrived at a seat-sharing formula in Uttar Pradesh for the coming Lok
Sabha poll leaving out all including the Congress except perhaps the RLD.
Though this alliance was forged mainly to
keep the BJP out of power, the two parties mentioned that they could not also forget
their bitter experiences in their alliance with the Congress in the past -- SP
in 2017 and the BSP in 1996. The JD(S) and Congress in power in Karnataka is
undergoing perennial conflict keeping suspense over the survival of the
government at the end of every day. The Congress and TDP alliance has just now
experienced utter defeat in Telangana Assembly election.
The new found friendship between the BSP and
the SP setting aside all past tirades exchanged between them takes us back to
1990s when Kanshiram of the BSP and Mulayam Singh of SP came together to form a government in UP. It may
affect the prospects of both the Congress and the BJP and hence a crucial
factor in Kolkata Gathbandhan
provided it is carried on faithfully. Under
the circumstances, the Congress is under compulsion to express its readiness to
contest all seats in UP without any ally as a matter of self-respect and
frantically seek smaller allies as a political necessity.
In 2014, the combined vote share of the BSP
and SP was 42.1 per cent in UP and if that of the RLD is added, it comes to 43 per cent,
which is slightly above the vote percentage of the BJP. Neither the SP nor the BSP was with the BJP in
2014 to upset the saffron party’s performance. It is also difficult to believe
that the alliance made will be able to obtain the sum total of their individual
votes as elections do not work like simple arithmetic. Expectations, if any, that
all anti-BJP votes would go to this alliance overlooking the implications of
the “Gathbhandan” phenomenon are also
questionable in the Lok Sabha election as people seem to be aware of the
weaknesses of a coalition of multiple parties with individual ambitions.
Pre-poll alliances have to undergo two steps --
one to arrive at some common policies and programmes, and the other an
acceptable seat-sharing arrangement. No common formula for seat sharing -- not
even a commonsense approach of selecting the most popular local candidate -- will
be acceptable for all parties or in all places. Selection of candidates even
within a party is not simple. Sometimes, even a very small party with very few
seats can upset a coalition government in a political situation, where
coalitions are not based on ideologies and are opportunistic to get power and
positions.
Former PM and JD(S) leader H.D Deve Gowda
wants a common election manifesto. His suggestion touches a very important area,
but not without its own hitches. Whether special status for Andhra Pradesh -- a
demand that led to TDP’s withdrawal from NDA -- can be achieved in a federal
front government for example, is not a minor point, but not mentioned by any
party. Outwardly, it seems more difficult in a federal front with States making
similar claims. Formulating a policy for sharing river water
and linking rivers to be chalked out by consensus in the federal front is
nothing short of a miracle.
The Mamata-led gathbandhan cannot ignore the moves of some prominent non-Congress
and non-BJP parties to come together to assert their importance. These will be
needed whichever alliance gets nearest to the seat of government. The TRS, YSR
Congress, and BJD, which are planning to work out a common strategy, need to be
watched.
A group of regional parties will not be able
to satisfy all regional ambitions of its members -- be it development, or
language. Unity of regional parties can survive only if common national
thinking overrides all local aspirations. Governance of the country is far
different from that of a State. Few regional parties have sound views on
foreign matters, national finance, and national development. An amalgamation of
State parties or State governments is necessary for national planning and
administration, but not adequate to form the national government. Such
coalitions have to convert themselves as a national union for the good of the
entire nation. --- INFA
(Copyright, India
News & Feature Alliance)
New Delhi
23 January 2019
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