Economic
Highlights
New Delhi, 14 January 2019
Please-All Bill
WILL CREATE DEEP FISSURES
By Shivaji Sarkar
Election season ushers in good times. Desires see
a dream. Rues of bonanza create a perception of benefit. The political game may
benefit a few but no one has the courage to debate the Indian economy
rationally.
The latest Constitution (124th Amendment) Bill
2019, on economic criterion for higher caste reservation sounds good though it has
many fallacies and may ultimately create more dissatisfaction as the 10 per cent
includes virtually all those who are out of the quota – upper castes, farming
castes like Maratha, Patidar, Jats, religious groups Muslim, Christians, Sikhs
and who not.
Good! It looks equitable to many. In reality, it
is not. The kitty of 10 per cent for the majority of Indians, approximately over
100 crore, is too small and impractical.
The eligibility criteria for economic weakness appear
to cover almost all. The annual family income should not exceed Rs 8 lakh. The
maximum area of agricultural landownership is not to be above five acres. The
area of house should not be larger than 1,000 sq ft. Some of these criteria are
sufficiently liberal to accommodate most households. Together it is
complex and depends on bureaucratic discretion.
The rationale of deciding backwardness up to Rs 8
lakh of family income is again a contradiction. One pays income tax at Rs 2.5
lakh, meaning he is well-off. By the new criteria since he is not, he can have
the benefit of reservation. It may also mean more benefits are coming through
the “interim” Budget. It may be a hint that long-ignored Income Tax limit is
likely to be raised. It should be raised to at least Rs 10 lakh and if that is
done in the Budget, the contradiction can be taken care of.
There are doubts over rationalisation of losing
revenue. Over the past three years, direct tax collection, mostly from the
lower segment of taxpayers, has increased. How much of that the bureaucracy
would allow to lose? So actual limit may not be that high.
The recent Assembly elections revealed that the
traders, industry, entrepreneurs and farmers are shifting their political
support to the Opposition. The farmers post-poll got loan waivers, even if it does
not benefit them. It only reveals the distress is deeper.
All other segments may also be given some crumbs
through further raising the limit for GST registration and cuts or package for
some like the sugar industry. The backlog of payment to sugarcane farmers are increasing
and discontent is growing. Despite some piecemeal support in Uttar Pradesh, the
arrears are mounting. Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis has sought
Rs 500-crore package.
The crisis is snowballing. According to Centre
for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), India has lost over one core jobs in
2018. In 2017, 40.79 crore people were employed. It reduced to 39.07 crore. The
job losses were in all sectors, including the IT.
From 2006-07 to 2017, five lakh Central PSU jobs
were lost. About 1.78 lakh new jobs were given at the Centre since 2014. So
even if the new Bill announces reservation in private educational institutions,
if jobs are contracting, the benefit of reservation would be extremely limited.
More so as recruitment by the government, except in police forces, and PSUs have
declined.
The foreign portfolio investors (FPI) withdrew
over Rs 1 lakh crore during 2018. It may be argued that this money is floating
but it creates employment, else why a nation would allow it. The nation
remembers the BJP 2014 promise of creating one crore jobs every year!
Poll promises may not always come true. The
political system and parties need to discuss this in holistic manner. One
wonders what the new incarnation of Planning Commission, the NITI Ayog, has
been doing.
It has to be a thinking nation. Political
decisions should follow a process of discussion, debate and rationale. Even the
insertion of reservation for SC and ST in the Constitution was the result of an
intense debate and against the wishes of Dr BR Ambedkar.
Nations can always take vital decisions at
political level. But the process must follow a system so as not to have new
complexities. The irrational was the decision of former Prime Minister VP Singh
in unilaterally implementing the Mandal Commission report. Ironically, the BJP
severed relations with him on this issue. Politically, it was devastating for
VP Singh himself. It did not pay him the dividend though it caused severe
social commotion.
The OBCs have made marginal gains. But the
competition within the quota is more severe. It is well-known that the better
off among the OBCs are beneficiaries. In the present scenario, it is not
difficult to understand that all political parties, despite their known
opposition, shied off for losing brownie points. Such brownies even late Prime Minister
PV Narasimha Rao through an executive fiat of reservation for upper castes had
tried to take. The court struck it down.
The legal standing of the move is yet a grey
area. There is a long-standing Supreme
Court verdict that the basic structure of the Constitution does not permit more
than 50 per cent reservation and tinkering with the constitutional fundamentals.
Finance Minister Arun Jaitley says the present Bill has amended the
Constitution itself to take care of it. There are instances when such
amendments were also struck down.
The Bill itself may cause more poll noises by the
parties with OBC or dalit base for higher benefits. The much-touted social
justice that the Bill is stated to address is also doubtful. Each such move of
reserving the job pie has led to segmentation of the society and conflicts. It
also means higher expenses on law and order.
This apart, the conflict seems to be spreading.
The National Registration of Citizen (NRC) Bill passage has put North-East, be
it Assam or Tripura, on fire. Parliamentarians did not discuss the impact of Supreme
Court decision on allowing patent to Monsanto on GM seed import or reinstating the
CBI director.
Political parties, in or outside government, need
to rethink whether for the sake of poll benefits they would like to create deep
social fissures? Economy thrives in an atmosphere of cohesion. Politics of
hurry must not overtake the fundamentals of civilization and erode the gains
made during the millennia.
In the run up to the 2019 General Election, more
promises are only natural. It should be for more social liberalisation and not
for ghettoeing it or over-governance. It must not be instant benefits. That is
the social junk food. And the nation should have no appetite for it. ---INFA
(Copyright,
India News & Feature Alliance)
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