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Round The World
New
Delhi, 2 November 2018
Lanka Turmoil
INDIA WATCHES, MUSTN’T MEDDLE
By Dr S. Saraswathi
(Former Director, ICSSR, New Delhi)
A serious constitutional crisis unleashed in
Sri Lanka, like any other neighbourhood problem involving constitutional crisis
and political instability, will not leave India in peace. Already its
repercussions are felt in our country and some political parties are loudly
expressing their views. The course of events read like a drama with
each scene opening a new development.
Sri Lankan President Maithripala Sirisena, who
in collaboration with Ranil Wickremesinghe, leader of the United National Party
(UNP) ousted Mahinda Rajapaksa in 2015, has played the same game again. He now
abruptly pulled out of Sri Lanka’s National Unity coalition government, sacked Prime
Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe on 26th October and replaced him with
former President Mahinda Rajapaksha. There was no majority test and no open
split of parties reducing the strength of the ruling party.
Next day, he also suspended Parliament till
November 16 which prevents it to react and got 14 ministers sworn in. Rapid
action by the authors and supporters of this coup, such as updating the official
portal of the government as reported in some press, suggests political action
forecasting instability.
All these events happening in quick
succession have undermined established parliamentary procedure and need equally
fast action to convene Parliament and test the majority for installation of a
valid government, if democratic principles, as we know, have to be
restored. Suspension of Parliament for over a fortnight
in the situation obtaining in Sri Lanka is unbecoming of a democracy and is
open to criticism as officially granted time for switching sides and
horse-trading, which has become common political practice everywhere.
At the time, Wickremesinghe-led United National
Front (UNF) was the largest party with 106 members in the House of 225 members.
The number gives him strength to challenge the President’s action and demand a
floor test to ascertain parliamentary support of the two sides. The United
People’s Freedom Alliance including supporters of Rajapaksa has 99 members.
Declaring that his UNF has the support of
majority in Parliament, the sacked PM wants reconvening of Parliament to prove
his majority. He seems to be confident of his strength to re-enact his victory
through the No-Confidence Motion against his ministry, hardly six months ago.
The constitutional validity of the change is certainly debatable, but fortunes
change with changes in coalition partners.
Outbreak of street level politics in the
island nation over these developments is inevitable. Loyalists of the two sides openly clashed,
which ended in the death of one person. The Speaker of Parliament questioned
the President’s decisions and for his part recognised the ousted Prime Minister
as the leader of the government, who was the legally elected Prime Minister and
had the mandate to form the government. He wants immediate resolution of the
political conflict so as to avoid “bloodbath” on the streets. The strong words
used by him have to be taken seriously by democratic societies, particularly
nearby India, closest to Sri Lanka in many respects.
The Sri Lankan Constitution as amended in
2015 ruled out the possibility of the President removing the Prime Minister who
can be removed only by Parliament. The US, UK, and the EU and most of the
European countries individually are in favour of upholding the Constitution and
the democratic process. On the other hand, China welcomes the change and has
promptly conveyed its good wishes to the new PM Rajapaksa, thus reflecting a
visible division in world opinion.
India preferred to wait before giving its
views. It has to weigh the options and consider its long-term interests keeping
in mind its relationship with other neighbours. Rajapaksa is known to be
leaning towards China, which is assigned several big infrastructure projects in
Sri Lanka. He has also given strategic entry to China into the island by
leasing out Hambabdota Port to them, assigning the major project of building
the Colombo port, and allowed them to dock its submarines in Sri Lanka -- all
of which directly reduce the sphere of Indian influence in the region to the
extent it increases that of China.
While the Indian government prefers to wait
and watch the situation as it unfolds, political parties in Tamil Nadu -- the
DMK, AIADMK, MDMK, PMK, VCK, and also the CPI and CPM are all voicing concern
over the recent developments, anticipating further troubles to Tamils under
this change. Their stand has been part of local Tamil politics and not
necessarily in alignment with that of the national policy of the Centre.
Their grievances with the regime of Rajapaksa
unite them to cry about the safety of Tamils there and of Indian fishermen
fishing in the Indian Ocean. The coming together of Sirisena and Rajapaksa is
viewed with apprehension by these parties, though for the common people of the
State, Sri Lankan politics is not a crucial problem and cannot be made an
electoral issue.
Sirisena’s realignment with Rajapaksa after
parting in 2014 to become President is a bit of a surprise. The constitutional
validity of the move to bring in Rajapaksa in place of Wickremesinghe is questioned
by democratic nations. The relative popularity of the two contending PMs within
their country and outside is not relevant when the nation has a written
Constitution to follow.
Barely a week back, Ranil Wickremesinghe was
in Delhi and discussed the progress of a number of pending development projects
with his counterpart Modi, who expressed concern over the delay. The two Prime Ministers went through the
whole gamut of bilateral relations between the two countries and explored the
possibilities of furthering the relations. Progress on several decisions
reached between the two neighbours in recent past and delay in carrying out the
projects, particularly those agreed to in 2017 were reviewed. Differences
between President Sirisena and Prime Minister Wickremesinghe, who were
affiliated to different alliances when they joined in 2015, seemed to have
hindered progress.
While India and particularly Tamil Nadu has
some reasons to worry about Rajapaksa’s return to power, efforts are going on
from the side of Sri Lanka to improve ties between the two countries through
development projects.
New Delhi cannot be interfering with the
internal politics of Sri Lanka and has to safeguard its long-term interests
through bilateral relations. Its interests are larger than that of local
political parties of Tamil Nadu and it has to maintain its principles and
policies while safeguarding special interests of Tamils arising from close
proximity and centuries of interrelationship.
Bilateral connectivity, regional interests, and neighbourly good
relations have to be at the centre and cannot be allowed to decline for any
reason. Also, the question of devolution of powers to the Tamils, although an
internal matter of Sri Lanka, has extended effect on India.
Thus, India has logically no reason to
rejoice over the sudden political transition in Sri Lanka. But, international
relations are based on logic plus factors. Plus factors oblige the country to
learn to live with given situations where it has no say.---INFA
(Copyright, India
News & Feature Alliance)
New Delhi
31October
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