Economic Highlights
New Delhi, 17 December 2018
Loan-Waivers Not
Solution
DELETE IT, TOLL, BANK
CHARGES
By Shivaji Sarkar
India’s economy is in a cyclical phase of loan waivers as the Congress
comes back to power in three large States.
Banks with people’s deposits, not Governments’, seem to be an
easy prey. Nobody is addressing the distress of the farmers. Four years back,
in 2014 there were loan-waivers and now again it is happening.
There is a problem of perception too. The new RBI Governor
Shaktikant Das says that the Government is not just a stakeholder, it runs the
economy and manages financial institutions.
Das is correct to the extent that it manages the institutions.
That is the task the Government has been given by the people. It has to be as
per people’s wishes and not as anyone in Government decides. Alas! People are
rarely even consulted.
The economy is run and managed by the people --- entrepreneurs
and financial institutions. The Government is an institution that was formed by
the people to take of care of issues of daily management as a custodian and not
owner. The Governments’ that adhere to it, as possibly the Atal Behari Vajpayee
did and to some extent the United Front functioned, made the people happy.
So the Governments’ of any colour have to adhere to the basics
and should not have euphoria of numbers. People want that as custodians of
people’s money and the manager of institutions, the Governments’ protect their
wealth and help increase it.
Since 2014
seven States have unveiled loan waivers totalling nearly Rs 182,802 crore.
Agriculture economist Ashok Gulati reckons that the total farm loan-waiver may touch Rs 4 lakh crores in the run-up
to the general elections in 2019 as other States join the fray.
Let the nation
not feel that sudden changes in the RBI have made the stock market buoyant. In
March, 1992, also this had happened. It later opened up a can of worms --- the
Harshad Mehta stock scam. The present one may be a real boost but the stock
market is not an indicator of the economy. Presently, it is definitely not. The
reasons for its boost often are behind the scenes operation.
The situation
is difficult. The rupee, despite occasional gains, remains volatile, economy
unstable, job markets uncertain, investors wary, thus unreal stock movement
needs to be seen with a pinch of salt.
For much of
this year, the Urjit Patel-led RBI was seen resisting pressure as well as
entreaties from the Government, industry and financial firms to ease lending
and capital norms for stressed PSBs, particularly those under the prompt
corrective action (PCA) framework, open a special liquidity window for
non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) with a precarious asset-liability position
and push the flow of credit to small enterprises.
Das has not
dwelt on any of these specific issues that caused the strain in the
relationship between the Government and the RBI.
The political
Parties manifestos of the five States were also silent on these issues. Of
course, voters do not understand intricate issues. So populism marked it.
Finance Minister Arun Jaitley is right in saying that populism does not help in
the long run.
Parties
practise it to get numbers to form the Government. Ignoring the numbers of
finances however causes problem. The
industry, the biggest defaulter in loan repayment, is also known to have
withdrawn the largest cash along with many other players before the elections.
Why? Everyone knows.
So except
for cosmetic treatment not much could still be realized and the public sector
banks (PSB) having capital of people’s deposits today are in a severe crisis
called the NPAs. It is true this Government did not proffer the bounties. Their
predecessor did.
But now once
again people have the problem of a cyclical nature of politics. So if this Government
is finding it difficult would the next Government do it? Or would they again
play with people’s money to which no Government has the right to lay their
hands on.
The suffering
of the people, forget about mitigating, is increasing. The RBI is supposed to
increase the rates to help poor depositors, senior citizens, women and the
deprived Jandhan account holders, who
put their earnings in the coffers of the banks.
The rate
rise is required not just to help the depositors but to protect the nation’s
wealth. People’s money is not for the large or largest corporate. The farmer
and MSMEs – small entrepreneurs – also have a claim to it.
But loan-waiver
creates an unwanted culture. As the elections to the States started, those
farmers who could repay also are known to have stopped the repayments. The
industry is willfully not doing it. The Government is recapitalizing banks with
taxpayers’ money. It is a vortex.
These issues
have to be addressed. Farmers’ income through their product sales have to be
increased. The farmers are known to lose but the insurance companies are known
to earn high profits. This is not welfare. A proper farm policy is a must.
The Parties
if they want good governance have to do away with income tax. Citizens are not
supposed to pay unnecessary taxes that deprive them of over four months of
their earnings. Bank charges have to be lowered.
A relook
before 2019 polls is a must. It is not populism but a national necessity.
The Government
and Opposition also have to answer why people should pay high road tolls, when
they are paying Rs 8 per litre as road building and maintenance cess. Toll is
loot by organized mafia. It delays highway traffic, causes harassment and large
pilferage. The NHAI is on record of not getting paid the toll and IL&FS
would not have collapsed with Rs 90,000 crore losses had there been honesty in
toll collection.
Even GST
needs a relook. It is tax on tax in many cases.
Inflation as
per RBI’s latest monetary policy assessment is bound to jump because industrial
products have become expensive. Food prices cannot remain low for long. Rate
rise is logical.
The nation’s
economy is in crisis. People need succor and protection. 2019 will belong to
those who can ensure the relief and safety of banks. Yes, the Government has been
given the task to direct the economy, not run it, and it has to do that without
hurting the people, their deposits or threatening to play with their wealth in banks
or RBI. India needs pro-people, pro-farmer approach for livelihood creation.
---- INFA
(Copyright, India
News & Feature Alliance)
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