Events & Issues

New Delhi, 21 November 2018

IPCC Special Report

FORECASTS MORE DISASTER

By Dhurjati Mukherjee

Various studies bear testimony to the fact that climate change will have disastrous consequences, some of which are already being felt. There have been talks at the Paris summit of limiting global warming to 20C, but this level is difficult to maintain, according to climatologists. However, even if this level is maintained, over a quarter of the Earth’s land surface will become significantly drier.

The Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), prepared by 91 scientists from 40 countries and released recently, pointed out that the failure to limit global temperatures at 1.50 C above pre-industrial levels may result in life threatening conditions in the next few decades. Coastal nations and agricultural economies like India would be the worst affected, the report observed, adding a decline in crop yields, unprecedented climate extremes and increased susceptibility could push poverty by several million by 2050. 

According to the report, “limiting global warming to 1.50 C as against 20 C can reduce the number of people exposed to climate related risks and poverty by up to several hundred million by 2050”. In fact, limiting global warming would obviously require “far-reaching and unprecedented changes in all aspects of society”, the panel rightly pointed out.  

This has been reiterated earlier also but the present report has categorically highlighted this aspect. According to a study, published early this year in ‘Nature Climate Change’, if we contain average warming to 1.50C, this will be limited to about a tenth, sparing two-thirds of the land projected to parch under 20C. At 1.50C, parts of southern Europe, southern Africa, central America, coastal Australia and Southeast Asia -- areas home to over a fifth of humanity -- “would avoid significant aridification” predicted under 20C, observed the study co-author, Su-Jong Jeong, Southern University of Science & Technology in China.    

Going by present indications, it is amply clear that the possibility of adhering to the above target appears remote and this has been outlined by climatologists the world over. Thus, there is nothing new though such warnings may inspire nation States to come up with fresh plans at emission control.

One may mention here that releasing the Summary for Policymakers, the first part of its 5th assessment report in Stockholm on September 27, 2013, IPCC scientists observed global warming resulted in an average sea level rise of 19 cm since 2001 and an increase in surface temperature by 0.85 degrees Celsius between 1880 and 2012. Lately, as of 2017, the rise in surface temperature may have reached around one degrees Celsius.

As compared with the 4th assessment report released in 2007, the report tones down its temperature rise projections for the end of this century from the earlier range of 1.16-4 degrees C to 0.3-4.8 degree C.

The developed countries have been pressurising emerging nations to cut emissions of these short-lived gases, while the latter have been demanding the West undertake more cuts in its CO2 levels. The issue has been raised for quite some years, even after the Paris deal. These countries, which include India, have less to do with creating global warming with very low per capita emissions, would obviously suffer more. Poorer sections which are presently affected by floods, storms and heat waves would have to face increased sufferings in the not-too-distant future. The report has specifically mentioned Kolkata and Karachi among cities that could face an increased threat of heat waves.

As is well known, Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement would effectively have us on track to a 3°C warmer world. But this obviously would be disastrous. “We are already seeing the consequences of a 1C global warming through more extreme weather, rising sea levels and diminishing Arctic sea ice, among other changes”, has pointed out Panmao Zhai, Co-chair of the IPCC’s Working Group-I.

India has to fundamentally transform its current approach to climate change and not wait on developed countries like the US to take the lead on scaling emission reductions and addressing historical emissions. Complacency and looking up to other countries’ unambitious climate targets as benchmarks would essentially mean suicide for a vulnerable country like India.

Unchecked climate change will dent India’s GDP by 2.9 per cent and depress the living standards of nearly half the population by 2050, with people living in the several ‘hotspot’ districts of central India, particularly Vidarbha, starting at the prospect of an over 10 per cent dip in economic consumption. These are the findings of a first-of-its-kind World Bank study that quantifies the economic impacts of rising temperatures and changes in rainfall in different parts of the country due to global warming.

The study, ‘South Asia Hotspots’, released on June 28, 2018, projects a 2 per cent fall in the country’s GDP in terms of per capita consumption expenditure, even if the Paris Agreement goals of containing global warming to 2 degrees Celsius is achieved.

The loss in the severe hotspot districts with an average 9.8 per cent drop in consumption will amount to over $400 billion, the study pointed out, with states like Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh projected to witness over 9 per cent dip in living standards by 2050 in the ‘carbon intensive’ or business-as-usual’ scenario.

It is quite discernible that, climate change is projected to be a ‘poverty multiplier’ through food insecurity, higher food prices, income losses, lost livelihood opportunities, adverse health impacts and population displacements.

Meanwhile, the Centre for Science & Environment (CSE) made certain recommendations. It said: “if the world insists on sticking to the 20 C target, in all probability it will overshoot it. However, if the world agrees to keep warning warming within 1.50 C, it can contain it well within 20 C, adding that developed countries must take the lead by rapidly de-carbonising their economies as well as reducing consumption through adoption of low carbon growth.

“A fossil fuel free energy system and investments in energy efficiency will help grow the economy in most scenarios”, as rightly pointed out by Director of CSE Dr Sunita Narain. Thus, it is quite obvious that emerging economies like India, China and the like must seize the opportunity. However, without positive overtures from industrial economies, nothing much may be accomplished and, as such, these countries have to come forward, the prospect of which will depend on the action by these countries in the coming years.  

Thus, there remains very little time to act. But affluent, influential economies -- the US is an example -- are not much interested to fight the looming crises. This is particularly worrisome given that the world, the report estimated, would require $2.4 trillion annually between 2016 and 2035 -- 2.5 per cent of the present GDP -- to transform the energy sector alone in its bid to stall rising temperatures. If the imminent threat is not countered by collaborative action and sensitising the global political discourse and adopting the right technologies, the consequences would be disastrous for India and the world. ---INFA

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