Political Diary

New Delhi, 13 November 2018

2019: War of Positions

CAN OPPOSITION UNITE?

By Poonam I Kaushish

Political India is resounding to the sounds of mere saath rahogay to aish karoge as Parties slug it out in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Telangana and Mizoram. On the sidelines, history is repeating itself whereby Opposition Parties are trying to band together to form a grand alliance against a formidable BJP for Battle 2019.  The kursi and power at all cost.

Undoubtedly, the Karnataka by-polls results where the Congress-JD(S) came up trumps in four of the five Lok Sabha and Assembly seats underscored that though the combine represent different social groups they can be mobilised to vote for a common candidate. Besides, not only has it proved naysayers wrong that the ‘unholy’ alliance for power was doomed but also disturbed the BJP and could upset its applecart in the near future.

Specially, as it comes against the backdrop of the NDA winning just three of 15 Lok Sabha and Assembly seats spanning 11 States in June which spelt bad news for the BJP and signaled to the Opposition that local-level unity could defeat it. Example, UP’s Kairana where Ajit Singh’s RLD candidate supported by Mayawati’s BSP, Akhilesh’s SP and Rahul’s Congress defeated the BJP.

Perhaps, what is agitating and worrying the Saffron Sangh is that not only did these Parties submerge their mutual conflicts but won. Adding insult to injury, despite being in a minority in the Lok Sabha the Opposition is rubbing in a reverse message: They might not have the numbers but are successfully putting the Government on the mat. The obverse holds true in the Rajya Sabha where the Parties are using their numerical strength to hold the house to ransom.

In fact, the out-of-the-blue alliance between arch enemies Congress and TDP along-with the CPI  in Telangana to trump the TRS has completely upturned political equations in the State where the Party  was widely expected to clinch the battle. In Chhattisgarh the BSP is allying with Ajit Jogi’s and giving a tough fight to overthrow the BJP Government.  

However, the biggest takeaway of this nascent Opposition unity is that Southern regional chieftain TDP’s Chandrababu Naidu is clearly positioning himself for leading the Opposition charge against the BJP in 2019, dethroning Trinimool’s Mamata.  He has not only emerged as a key strategist but also honed his political acumen post is break with the BJP recently. He has shrewdly, bandied the Congress, JD(S) and Left together, kept his ears to the ground conniving on what should be there next move. 

Further, by reaching out to bête noir Congress to join his anti-Modi bandwagon he has demonstrated that if the cause is important he is willing to bury the decades-long hatchet and join forces for the collective good. Naidu also has a good equation with NCP’s Sharad Pawar, Trinamool’s Mamata, Samajwadi’s Mulayam and AAP’s Kejriwal.  He and Congress President Rahul have started on a clean slate.

Additionally, realizing that not a few regional satraps are lily-livered cowards whose expertise lies in deal-making with the Government and switching sides at the ninth hour he has got Sharad Yadav and Abdullah’s  NC to join him.  

Undeniably, it is early days but his Partymen and rivals nickname him as a ‘quite and smooth operator’. Naidu like Modi seems to have the same skill set: is pro-development, tech savvy, ‘connects’ with people, has an risk appetite and is like Teflon, no scandal or negative feature sticks to him. 

Is Opposition unity ephemeral? Will Naidu be able to stitch and hold it together remains to be seen. Would it only hold during the States Assembly polls? Given that other than the BJP, Congress, TDP, TRS and BSP neither the Samajwadi, Trinimool, the two Tamilian rivals DMK and AIDMK and Odesha BJD have any stake in MP, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Telangana and Mizoram.

Certainly, Opposition unity will not be easy, given the disparate aims and agendas of various Parties that will have to pull together. For any credible and proper Opposition unity, if not perfect, to survive and lead, it should be headed by the largest, second or major Party leader. With Congress’s Rahul being dismissed as a non-serious political player sans respect by others and Trinimool Mamata’s Mahagadhbandhan ending in a pipedream, TDP’s Naidu, the seventh largest Party in Parliament has taken it upon himself to lead from the front.

Questionably, is the BJP’s invincibility dying? Is the Hindutva card past its expiry date? Is a combination of gathering anti-incumbency and Opposition’s electoral arithmetic of unity putting brakes on BJP’s much vaunted electoral machine?

Clearly, the BJP has only itself to blame for the mess it is in. Modi’s Government has fallen short on promises: Economy has performed below expectations, the rural belt is dissatisfied and there is urban apathy and disinterest in voting. The youth is angry at Government’s inability to generate jobs and communal polarisation might not pay electoral dividends. Moreover, there is erosion in its vote-share. 

However, these reverses open up new options for the BJP. One, a large victory highly probable a year back is less certain now. The losses indicate it cannot take Opposition unity lightly and will have to chalk out an out-of-the-box strategy for another term. It has lost a total of ten Lok Sabha seats and is down to a simple majority of 272 MPs. Consequently, it is now increasingly reliant on its allies to prove its majority. This could go down further in 2019.

But the BJP is a strong player, Modi has no competitor and Amit Shah has turned BJP into an electoral machine which reaps rich dividends, 21 States including terrains that are not too friendly as Tripura showed recently. Add to it the TINA factor.

What next? It is too early to say whether Opposition unity will hold. The Karnataka, Telangana and UP experiments has given the “khul ja sim sim" code to the Opposition for entering the Alibaba cave in 2019. After Bihar, UP and now Karnataka by-polls have conclusively proven that the Modi juggernaut can be finally stopped if the Opposition joins hands and replicates Bihar-UP-Karnataka type grand alliances in key States.

True, the Parties know that it’s only in rethinking their old rivalries and laying their differences aside to fight the BJP together that they stand even a ghost of a chance. They would need astute political moves combined with election management to counter BJP's superior war machinery. The elephant in the room is whether the Congress is willing to reinvent itself and take this experiment, of playing second fiddle to a regional Party, as the model for a grand coalition to face NaMo’s BJP in 2019?

In the ultimate the slew of defeats highlights that Modi-Shah will have to rectify the internal fault-lines, set its house in order, tweak its States’ leadership to retain an edge. The BJP would need to take urgent corrective steps as any rift in the family could result in the entire edifice of political support collapsing.

Moreover, Modi’s gambit will first be put to test in the States and next year during the General Elections, so the Party still has time to evolve. With the BJP at the helm, the Government has a huge capacity to dole out patronage, win over enemies and influence people. However, either which way it is good for India’s democracy to have the Opposition finally playing its part: Constructive opposition with the winner taking it all! ----- INFA

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)