Round The World

New Delhi, 5 October 2018

Elections In Maldives

ROOM FOR INDIAN MANOEUVRE

By Dr. D.K. Giri

(Prof. International Politics, JMI)

The recent elections in Maldives unseated the incumbent President Abdulla Yameen, and created some room for India to manoeuvre back to the position of influence it had with the island nation. Election results of victory of Ibrahim Mohamed Solih of the Maldivian Democratic Party, have surprised even the victors, and shocked the vanquished and his mentor, China. Small is size, but of huge geo-strategic importance both to India and China, Maldives enjoys considerable attention from both the countries.

It recently drew international attention too albeit for the wrong reasons. The outgoing President had imposed emergency to annual a Supreme Court judgement, imprisoned political opponents in violation of democratic norms, and the rule of law. For India, Yameen proved to be inconvenient diluting the deep traditional ties between the two countries, and moving closer to China. As Yameen was tightening his grip over his country’s politics and inching towards Chinese embrace, New Delhi was losing the plot.

Surprisingly, New Delhi seemed helpless when Maldivian Opposition leaders sought help against the imposition of emergency by Yameen. The grapevine has it that officials in South Block, in the Ministry of External Affairs, refused to meet the Opposition leaders and their emissaries. On hindsight, it was, perhaps, prudent of New Delhi, not to intervene with force like it had done before, to incur a nationalist backlash.

No country, in present times, likes to see its sovereignty compromised in any event, be it Nepal, Ceylon or Maldives. New Delhi’s intervention would have stoked the anti-India sentiments generated by Yameen. Maldives was moving out of India’s sphere of goodwill and influence, so much that Prime Minister Modi did not visit the country since he took over in 2014.

Male almost snubbed New Delhi by asking India to take back two helicopters and 48 Indian pilots operating in the country. Returning a gift is neither diplomatic nicety nor a good political gesture. It also refused to renew the visa of about 25,000 workers in the hotel industry, hospitals and other service sectors.

On the other hand, it allowed China to dock three warships in Maldivian ports. It invited China to build a 2-km bridge from the airport to the capital city. When President Yameen visited China, he signed a free trade agreement with China, second country in South Asia to sign it after Pakistan, agreed to join the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative, and gave long term-lease on several Maldivian islands to China. It also handed over islands in the Northern atoll, to build, repair and refuel naval ships of China. Worse, it awarded the contracts for upgradation of the international airport to China by cancelling it with India. Yameen changed the Maldivian long-held approach of India first to ‘China first’.

To be sure, fresh winds of goodwill and friendship have begun to blow towards New Delhi. The election results portend to renewal of ties with India, although it is not certain that the new regime would per force switch its loyalty or preference to India. Many in Maldives and outside contend that India cannot match the material capacity of China. A similar perspective had led Nepal to the Chinese sphere. As the economy becomes the determinant of a country’s foreign policy, not political values, or strategic imperatives China scores much above India. Can New Delhi establish a new framework for cooperation amongst South Asian states, or beyond? This is the moot question.

To New Delhi’s comfort, China’s controversial development aid is being exposed as mechanism for a debt-trap. Mohammed Nasheed, who served as the fourth President of Maldives from 2008 to 2012, and the leader of Maldivian Democratic Party, a major partner of the three-party coalition that won elections, has questioned the commercial viability of the Chinese projects in Maldives lacking transparency and democratic procedure.

For instance, China extended USD 830 million loan for building the Hulhule island airport, the 1.3 km sea-bridge for USD 400 million. All these and other loans add up to 80 per cent Chinese loan of Maldives total debt amounting to 25 per cent of GDP. Maldives has to giveaway USD 92 million a year towards servicing the Chinese debt, which is 10 per cent of its GDP. This is clearly a debt trap, China has led Male to. This is the pattern of Chinese aid to South Asian countries, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Pakistan for sure, Nepal and Maldives.

New Delhi cannot be accused of similar duplicity. India pursues a more ethical aid policy and transparent transactions. New Delhi can advocate its democracy, pluralism, commitment to rule of law, international peace and solidarity. Unlike Chinese aggressive expansionism, India is peace-loving and non-aggrandising. When the chips are down, people prefer peace, stability, ethics and rule of law. That’s why they voted Yameen out. They have shown their preference for Indian style of politics and neighbourliness.

To cast our glance back to the four years of Abdulla Yameen’s rule, he unleashed a reign of authoritarianism. He stifled dissent, charged the Opposition leader Mohammed Nasheed, a former president with terrorism, and forced him into exile, and Qasim Ibrahim of plotting to overthrow his government. Yameen even arrested his half-brother, 82-year-old Maumoon Gayoom. When the Chief Justice of Supreme Court ordered the release of political prisoners, he ordered the arrest of CJ Abdulla Saeed and another judge. What a fall of a leader in a democracy! Yameen did not stop there. He clamped emergency to reverse a Supreme Court order.

So, arguably, Yameen gave the Maldivians a choice, authoritarianism and ‘economic gain’ by proximity with China or democracy and solidarity with India for the latter’s political values etc. The Maldivians have made a choice. They decided to forgo the Chinese temptation and voted the tin-pot dictator out, a clear message to India. Can New Delhi make good of the situation to regain its influence?--INFA

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)