Events & Issues
New
Delhi, 28 September 2018
Opposition Mahagathbandhan
OVERCOMING TEETHING TROUBLES
By Dr S Saraswathi
(Former Director, ICSSR, New Delhi)
BSP leader, Mayawati, has declared that her
party would not enter into any alliance unless it was given a respectable share
of seats. The condition applies to both Lok Sabha and the upcoming Assembly
elections in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan. Indeed a big jolt to
the Mahagathbandhan in making!
Mayawati has without delay confirmed her
stand by coming to an agreement with Janta Congress for contesting Assembly
poll in Chhattisgarh. Whether this sudden but firm announcement will be
followed by more drop-outs from Mahagathbandhan idea or by a change of heart
and mental transformation among the fence sitters to realise the absolute need
for “give and take” policy in presenting a united force will be unfolded in
coming weeks.
Despite several ups and downs, it cannot be
denied that the politics of alliances has gradually taken firm roots in India
ever since the Congress lost its status of wielding “one party dominance”. It is intensified and widened with growth in
the number of political parties in the field. What started as an anti-Congress
move is now in the second stage in which the role is reversed as pro-Congress move in 2018 preparatory
to next year’s General election. The original target of combined attack -- the
Congress -- is now the potential but not the undisputed leader for organising
the strike.
Noticeable feature of this change is the elevation
of the BJP as the principal opponent of several parties, which highlights its
growth and popularity more than its unpopularity. In political contests, an
effective party is likely to earn more opponents than an ineffective one.
Mahagathbandhan – the Hindi equivalent of
Grand Alliance – is presently the much-talked about election strategy to collect all anti-BJP
votes in one basket in 2019 Lok Sabha election. It is believed, on the basis of
simple arithmetical calculation, that it can bring down the BJP government, but
if aborted mid-way, a healthy BJP baby would emerge.
But, election results cannot be worked out by
plain arithmetic of summing up probable vote share of allies. For, a party’s vote
share may also change on account of its partners. Partnership can work in
either directions -- increase or decrease of a party’s votes. The company a
party cherishes betrays its true colour.
Opposition unity was the simple device
applied to dislodge the Congress and end the Internal Emergency in mid-1970s.
That unity was brought about by merger of some independent parties adopting a
common new name, but it did not hold together for even a single parliament
term.
The reality of multiparty system in India and
the temporary nature of any union of parties made before or after elections are
crystal clear now. And so it is confirmed again and again that in politics, there
are no permanent friends or enemies, and the fickleness of political relations
is accepted as natural. The phenomenon of parties fighting one another for
Assembly seats and joining hands in Parliament election may be confusing to
voters, but contesting parties do not see any abnormality in this.
Will this funny situation vanish if
simultaneous elections are held for Assemblies and Parliament? Can one Mahagathbandhan
hold good for both? This needs discussion.
Pre-election alliance is more difficult to
achieve than post-election. Further, it is easier to bring together two or
three parties for an electoral understanding than dozens of parties with their
own support base. When alliance partners include strong regional parties headed
by acknowledged regional leaders like Mamata Banerjee, Chandrababu Naidu, or
Stalin, pre-election ties have not only to accommodate diverse interests, but
also accept multiple leaderships. These issues present teething troubles in
forming a Mahagathbandhan.
Recall, the first Grand Alliance of political
parties was formed to fight 1971 parliament elections by Congress(O), Samyukta
Socialist Party, and Bharatiya Jan Sangh
against the Congress, led by Indira
Gandhi after the great Congress split of 1969, but failed to make any electoral
impact. 1971 election decided only the winner between
the two Congresses.
The label “Grand Alliance” reminds one of the
Second World War alliance of the Soviet Union, United Kingdom, and the US --
three nations representing respectively three types of regimes Communist,
Colonial, and Capitalist -- against Axis powers – Germany and Japan. Likewise, Mahagathbandhan
is an assorted amalgam which may decide the next government, but will have to
sort out internal differences.
Therefore, the contest is now centred on the
politics of making friends. Hate speeches, false propaganda, personal attacks,
and histrionic talents are powerless before the ability to gain friends and
break the opponent.
The first-past-the-post-system provides
enormous electoral advantage to large pre-election coalition. The alliance of 17 parties managed by the
Congress before 2004 General election paid high dividends in terms of winning
for it 222 seats and becoming the leader of ruling coalition. The number of partners is important even if
some of the constituents are small parties. That helps consolidation of votes
of partners and prevention of splitting up of votes against any common
opponent.
This is in contrast to the Congress fate in
1999 when it went to polls alone and got only 114 seats in Lok Sabha. Congress
then adhered to the policy laid down in 1998 by the CWC that coalitions would
be considered only when “absolutely necessary”. Congress, by now, has learnt
the importance of alliance. It has readily granted Chief Ministership and many
important portfolios to JD(S) in Karnataka despite being the bigger party in
the Assembly.
What worked in Karnataka will not be suitable
at the national level. In the event of Congress being compelled to cede the
post of Prime Minister to an alliance partner, it can only be a temporary
arrangement to keep the BJP out of power. In such a scenario, the Congress is
likely to give “outside Support” to Mahagathbandhan partners to form government
as in the past. A new combination would take place within a short time.
Even the pre-election Mahagathbandhan of Bihar,
considered a model worth repeating in 2019, did not continue for long in
Post-election period. On 26th July 2017, Chief Minister and leader
of JD(U) Nitish Kumar broke the alliance and resigned. A new government was
formed by JD(U) in partnership with the BJP against whom the artificial unity
was first forged.
By sheer repetition, the concept of Mahagathbandhan,
which has been successfully pursued in some bye-elections in UP, has raised the
expectations of some believers. But, in bigger elections, the race for power
comes into operation to enhance the importance of alliances.
Pre-election Mahagathbandhan, even if it
manages to sort out leadership issue by having a collegiate system of
State-level leaders, the question of sharing seats will be an insuperable
problem. To the SP in UP, TMC in Bengal and TDP in Andhra Pradesh who are
masters in their own territories, alliance is required for sharing power and
not for sharing seats.
They need the support of locally strong
groups to fight election and increase their number rather than a Grand Alliance
of too many parties before the election. If the Mahagathbandhan remains a
non-starter, it is neither a surprise for voters nor a loss for parties.—INFA
(Copyright, India
News & Feature Alliance)
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