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Opposition Mahagathbandhan:OVERCOMING TEETHING TROUBLES, By Dr S Saraswathi, 28 September 2018 Print E-mail

Events & Issues

New Delhi, 28 September 2018

Opposition Mahagathbandhan

OVERCOMING TEETHING TROUBLES

By Dr S Saraswathi

(Former Director, ICSSR, New Delhi)

 

BSP leader, Mayawati, has declared that her party would not enter into any alliance unless it was given a respectable share of seats. The condition applies to both Lok Sabha and the upcoming Assembly elections in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan. Indeed a big jolt to the Mahagathbandhan in making!

 

Mayawati has without delay confirmed her stand by coming to an agreement with Janta Congress for contesting Assembly poll in Chhattisgarh. Whether this sudden but firm announcement will be followed by more drop-outs from Mahagathbandhan idea or by a change of heart and mental transformation among the fence sitters to realise the absolute need for “give and take” policy in presenting a united force will be unfolded in coming weeks.

 

Despite several ups and downs, it cannot be denied that the politics of alliances has gradually taken firm roots in India ever since the Congress lost its status of wielding “one party dominance”.  It is intensified and widened with growth in the number of political parties in the field. What started as an anti-Congress move is now in the second stage in which the role is   reversed as pro-Congress move in 2018 preparatory to next year’s General election. The original target of combined attack -- the Congress -- is now the potential but not the undisputed leader for organising the strike.

 

Noticeable feature of this change is the elevation of the BJP as the principal opponent of several parties, which highlights its growth and popularity more than its unpopularity. In political contests, an effective party is likely to earn more opponents than an ineffective one.

 

Mahagathbandhan – the Hindi equivalent of Grand Alliance – is presently the much-talked about  election strategy to collect all anti-BJP votes in one basket in 2019 Lok Sabha election. It is believed, on the basis of simple arithmetical calculation, that it can bring down the BJP government, but if aborted mid-way, a healthy BJP baby would emerge.

 

But, election results cannot be worked out by plain arithmetic of summing up probable vote share of allies. For, a party’s vote share may also change on account of its partners. Partnership can work in either directions -- increase or decrease of a party’s votes. The company a party cherishes betrays its true colour.

  

Opposition unity was the simple device applied to dislodge the Congress and end the Internal Emergency in mid-1970s. That unity was brought about by merger of some independent parties adopting a common new name, but it did not hold together for even a single parliament term.

 

The reality of multiparty system in India and the temporary nature of any union of parties made before or after elections are crystal clear now. And so it is confirmed again and again that in politics, there are no permanent friends or enemies, and the fickleness of political relations is accepted as natural. The phenomenon of parties fighting one another for Assembly seats and joining hands in Parliament election may be confusing to voters, but contesting parties do not see any abnormality in this.

   

Will this funny situation vanish if simultaneous elections are held for Assemblies and Parliament? Can one Mahagathbandhan hold good for both? This needs discussion.

 

Pre-election alliance is more difficult to achieve than post-election. Further, it is easier to bring together two or three parties for an electoral understanding than dozens of parties with their own support base. When alliance partners include strong regional parties headed by acknowledged regional leaders like Mamata Banerjee, Chandrababu Naidu, or Stalin, pre-election ties have not only to accommodate diverse interests, but also accept multiple leaderships. These issues present teething troubles in forming a Mahagathbandhan.

 

Recall, the first Grand Alliance of political parties was formed to fight 1971 parliament elections by Congress(O), Samyukta Socialist Party, and  Bharatiya Jan Sangh against the Congress, led  by Indira Gandhi after the great Congress split of 1969, but failed to make any electoral  impact.   1971 election decided only the winner between the two Congresses.

 

The label “Grand Alliance” reminds one of the Second World War alliance of the Soviet Union, United Kingdom, and the US -- three nations representing respectively three types of regimes Communist, Colonial, and Capitalist -- against Axis powers – Germany and Japan. Likewise,    Mahagathbandhan is an assorted amalgam which may decide the next government, but will have to sort out internal differences.

 

Therefore, the contest is now centred on the politics of making friends. Hate speeches, false propaganda, personal attacks, and histrionic talents are powerless before the ability to gain friends and break the opponent.

 

The first-past-the-post-system provides enormous electoral advantage to large pre-election coalition.  The alliance of 17 parties managed by the Congress before 2004 General election paid high dividends in terms of winning for it 222 seats and becoming the leader of ruling coalition.  The number of partners is important even if some of the constituents are small parties. That helps consolidation of votes of partners and prevention of splitting up of votes against any common opponent.

 

This is in contrast to the Congress fate in 1999 when it went to polls alone and got only 114 seats in Lok Sabha. Congress then adhered to the policy laid down in 1998 by the CWC that coalitions would be considered only when “absolutely necessary”. Congress, by now, has learnt the importance of alliance. It has readily granted Chief Ministership and many important portfolios to JD(S) in Karnataka despite being the bigger party in the Assembly.

 

What worked in Karnataka will not be suitable at the national level. In the event of Congress being compelled to cede the post of Prime Minister to an alliance partner, it can only be a temporary arrangement to keep the BJP out of power. In such a scenario, the Congress is likely to give “outside Support” to Mahagathbandhan partners to form government as in the past. A new combination would take place within a short time.

Even the pre-election Mahagathbandhan of Bihar, considered a model worth repeating in 2019, did not continue for long in Post-election period. On 26th July 2017, Chief Minister and leader of JD(U) Nitish Kumar broke the alliance and resigned. A new government was formed by JD(U) in partnership with the BJP against whom the artificial unity was first forged.

    

By sheer repetition, the concept of Mahagathbandhan, which has been successfully pursued in some bye-elections in UP, has raised the expectations of some believers. But, in bigger elections, the race for power comes into operation to enhance the importance of alliances.

 

Pre-election Mahagathbandhan, even if it manages to sort out leadership issue by having a collegiate system of State-level leaders, the question of sharing seats will be an insuperable problem. To the SP in UP, TMC in Bengal and TDP in Andhra Pradesh who are masters in their own territories, alliance is required for sharing power and not for sharing seats.

 

They need the support of locally strong groups to fight election and increase their number rather than a Grand Alliance of too many parties before the election. If the Mahagathbandhan remains a non-starter, it is neither a surprise for voters nor a loss for parties.—INFA

 

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)

 

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