Round
The World
New Delhi, 31 August 2018
Imran Khan
NEW CHAPTER IN INDO-PAK TIES?
By Dr D K Giri
(Prof, International Politics, JMI)
India ought to be preparing to deal with Pakistan’s
new Prime Minister Imran Khan, not a run-off-the-mill politician without much
political grounding or grooming, but hugely popular in his country and abroad
as a successful cricketer. After all, to the surprise of many observers, he did
beat his main rivals Pakistan People’s Party and Pakistan Muslim League to the
goal post of Wazir-e-Azam.
In its foreign policy, New Delhi has the most
sensitive and tenuous relation with Islamabad since last 71 years, when both
countries were partitioned in much violence and bloodshed. The other country is
Afghanistan, which is steeped in a fratricidal war for political control.
Pakistan’s role again is critical for restoration and re-building of
Afghanistan.
India’s relation with Pakistan, the nature,
degree and intensity etc have tremendous impact on our domestic politics and
policies. The only other parallel is perhaps the British membership of European
Union. Political parties are horizontally, badly divided over our approach to
Pakistan. Even the people are divided across the country in their reactions to
developments in India-Pakistan relations.
Take for instance, the ‘spontaneous’,
a-spur-of-the-moment hug Navjot Singh Sidhu had with Pakistan Army Chief Qamar
Bajwa. The spokespersons of the ruling party cried hoarse calling it an
anti-national gesture, embracing a person responsible for spilling so much of
Indian blood. Yet, others felt that it symbolised a shift in India-Pak
relations, from violence, war, terrorism, to dialogue, diplomacy and
peace-building. Sidhu, the Punjab Minister, a former cricketer like Imran, is
known for his outspoken and unusual nature. He pleaded that it was really a
spontaneous act as the General agreed to open up the routes for religious
visitors despite the heavy tensions in relations between the two countries.
It was perhaps like Rahul Gandhi hugging
Prime Minister Modi, which became a toast for media discussion. Let me add,
from a personal experience that, any Indian may be blown off his feet by the
warmth, hospitality and at-home feelings in Pakistan. It is really ironical
that India and Pakistan inter-governmentally are daggers drawn, but the people-to-people
relations are so cordial and warm, more so when they meet in a third country.
Against the back drop of Indo-Pak story, what
can we expect from the new Prime Minister? Before we go on to analyse and
pontificate on Imran’s India policy, I would like to throw a caveat here – that
is, in public life, personal traits and private lives of leaders determine
their policies. I am banking on Imran’s personality – unpredictable, impetuous
and unusual. Although he is alleged to be under the shadow of the all-powerful
Pakistan army, he can surprise himself and his critics by doing the unthinkable.
Think of his first marriage to Jemima Gold
Smith, 24 years junior to him, then to his wife Rehman Khan, and his third
wife, his spiritual guru, 26 years younger than him. The other is the current
French President who married his teacher Brigitte, 24 years his senior. Such
people are capable of breaking stereotypes. So it is not unrealistic to expect
them to break new-grounds in their policies as well. That is my hope—an optimism
on Imran’s surprise-springing personality.
Scanning his pronouncements on world
politics, especially on India, his narratives have so far been anti-war,
anti-aggression, pro-peace and pro-dialogue. He even urged a dialogue with
Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan, earning for himself the epithet of
‘Taliban Khan’. His detractors would say that he was supportive of Taliban,
their militant ideology, but he has been consistent on his pleas for dialogue.
Again, there seem to be perspectives on
Imran’s policy towards India. One, Indo-Pak ties are too complicated, and
better left to the hands of the Army and military intelligences. The ISI and
their army controllers will demand that uninterrupted space from the civilian
head of the government as the reciprocal price for propping him up to the
exalted position of the Prime Minister.
Few leaders have been able to break the
stranglehold of the army over the civilian government in Pakistan. Mian nawaz
Sharif tried to end the hegemony of the Army over politics, or at least have
at-par relations, but failed, became a victim of one political-military coup,
and another judicial coup; and now confined in jail. Imran Khan will, therefore
be, better advised to let army conduct India relations, as he attends the other
issues. He may arrange this quid-pro-quo between his office and the army, much
to the dismay of Indian diplomatic establishment.
The other perspective could be Imran, as his
wont would steer his own course and rebuild their relations with India, as much
of Pakistan’s stability and viability depends on its good relations with India.
If his victory speech of 26 July is any indication, Imran seems to be veering
towards the latter approach. He said, “If Hindustan takes one step, Pakistan
will take two in rebuilding ties.” Unless we discard this as rhetoric, it means
a lot for the future of India-Pak bilateralism.
He brought in cultural exchange, the most
exciting cricket match between the two countries, religious tourism etc. which
generate emotions, goodwill and become powerful determinant for a healthy
bilateral relations. Let us appreciate that unlike any other Prime Minister
before, Imran, the PM, has tweeted commiserating the colossal loss of life and
property in Kerala due to floods and has promised any assistance Pakistan could
offer.
Understandably, all countries now know that
‘money talks’ and are focusing on building their economic strengths. Imran
realises the dire economic state of his country. They will have to knock at the
doors of international monetary organisations for loans etc., on economic ties
with India, he made a significant point, “If we want to reduce poverty in the
region, which should be the priority of any government. We should improve our
trade ties. The more we do commerce, better for both countries.”
On Kashmir, he had said during his campaign,
that India should stop violence in the Valley, and UN Security Council should
broker peace through its resolutions etc. New Delhi was concerned that Imran
built part of his campaign platform on much of anti-India rhetoric. Well, so
did the current Nepal Prime Minister. During elections, leaders do whip up
nationalist sentiments. Even our politicians use anti-Pakistan vocabulary. All
that should be taken with a pinch of salt during election times.
The strategic point from the perspective of
dialogue is, if Imran is asking India to stop violence, which is misinterpreted
as India has its right to defend and protect its security, then terrorism of
all kinds should stop. ‘There is no good or bad terrorism’ as Imran once
classified. Cross-border terrorism has to stop before any dialogue begins. One
could hold on to Imran’s position of dialogue sans violence.
Finally, New Delhi must realise that it made
a diplomatic faux pas by condemning the election in Pakistan as a rigged one.
The nature of elections there was an internal matter of Pakistan. One remembers
a similar slip by South Block when it welcomed the counter revolution against
the democratically elected government of Boris Yeltsin in Russia. The counter
attack fizzled out in no time, leaving Indian diplomacy red-faced. So, it was
not a nice way to welcome another Prime Minister by insinuating that his
elections were rigged. We ought to be more careful.—INFA
(Copyright, India
News & Feature Alliance)
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