Round The
World
New Delhi, 28 July 2018
Pakistan Elections
DRAMATIC OUTCOME!
By Dr D.K. Giri
(Prof. International Politics, JMI)
Pakistan politics,
volatile and dramatic as it continues to surprise the world. Results of the
2018 General elections pouring in, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, headed by the
cricketer-turned-politician, Imran Khan is the largest single party and set to form
the government. Imran, a political eccentric, without any experience of power
or administration will be the 19th Prime Minister of coup-ridden politics of
Pakistan. Notably, this is only the second time, in the 71 years political
history of Pakistan, there will be a change of guard from one civilian
government to another.
Most likely, there
will be a spectacular shift in Pakistan domestic politics and foreign policy
with Imran Khan at the helm of affairs. Although it has to be seen, how much leeway
Pakistani Army allows him. Imran Khan is unpredictable. He formed his party,
Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), in 1996, on an anti-corruption and social
justice plank. He was severely opposed to both the established parties,
Pakistan Muslim League – Nawaz (PMLN) of Nawaz Sharif, and Pakistan People’s
Party (PPP) now led by Bilawal Bhutto, the young son of the former Prime
Minister Benazir Bhutto, mysteriously assassinated.
What is not usually
seen is that Pakistan is a three-legged political creature, standing on Islam,
and all that goes in the name of Islam-extremism, separatism, violence, etc, the
Army, which has the stronghold over Pakistani politics, especially, security
and foreign policy, that no prime minister could successfully resist, and the
third leg-Kashmir, no prime minister could survive in Pakistani politics
without raving and ranting on Kashmir’s “controversial accession” to India. No
election in Pakistan could escape the embrace and influence of these three
persistent factors.
Judged against the
above backcloth, the elections held on 25th July are no exception. These were
mired in convoluted controversies, terrorist violence, and Army’s political
manoeuvre. The sitting Prime Minister Mia Nawaz Sharif, along with his daughter
Mariam, the heir to the leadership of PMLN, was jailed for 10 years on
graft-charges. Many judicial experts would say this was a harsh punishment
non-commensurate with the alleged crime.
In fact, it is
perceived that the Army conducted a ‘soft coup’ to remove Nawaz Sharif who was
fighting hard against the Army interference in politics. The Army then propped
up Imran Khan as the next leader of Pakistan politics. It supervised the entire
elections -- managing all the polling booths, and the counting process by
deploying troops inside the counting centres. No wonder, in view of the massive
Army presence, 3,76,000 troops were deployed for 106 million eligible voters, 8
lakh police and military for 85,000 polling booths, all political parties
except Imran’s PTI are complaining of extensive rigging of the elections.
Independent, as well
as European Union observers, echo the complaint of a ‘botched up’ and unfair
election. The unprecedented unanimity among the parties on the rigging of the
election does not augur well for Imran. The elections were marred and scarred
by terrorist violence. In a suicide bombing in Quetta, the capital of
Balochistan province, 31 people died and several were injured.
What was the state of
elections? More than 300,000 candidates contested for 272 general seats of the
National Assembly (Pakistan Parliament) while some 8000 candidates ran for 577
general seats for the four provincial assemblies -- Punjab, Sindh,
Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. Unlike India, Pakistan elections were
simultaneous for provinces as well as the centre. The three main parties were
PMLN, PTI and PPP. While all eyes are on the Election Commission of Pakistan to
announce the results officially, PTI is the largest party (so far 120 seats),
followed by PMLN of Shebaz Sharif (in absence of Nawaz Sharif) 61 seats and PPP
of Bilawal Bhutto 40. At the same time, there has been no satisfying
explanation for the delay in declaring the verdict, although 90 per cent
results had come in.
Imran Khan’s party is
short of 19-odd seats to acquire a simple majority in order to form the
government. It will manage to cobble up a coalition even at the behest of the ‘army.’
What will Pakistan look like under Imran Khan's leadership? Will he be like
Justin Trudeau of Canada, making a series of gaffes, or Emanuel Macron of
France, unusual in his personal and political approach? Macron married his
teacher, 25 years his senior, Imran married Jemima Goldsmith, 21 years younger
than him and then a Pakistani journalist and recently married his spiritual
healer, a mother of five. Imran Khan has emerged as a populist leader with some
radical perspectives. How much he would be delivering in an army-dominated
politics is to be watched to be believed.
Scanning his
premature victory speech, one could discuss the intention of fresh initiatives.
At home, he wants to build an ‘Islamic Welfare’ State, which sounds appealing
but difficult as Pakistan is in throes of an economic crisis -- a severe dearth
of foreign currency resources. It is seeking a bailout by IMF. He will have to
deliver some welfare measure as he has allured the young and old on the promise
of jobs and development schemes. He wants to root out corruption, a welcome
step but again complex. Will he be able to clean up? He talks of fighting
poverty in South Asia instead of fighting against each other. A very valuable
approach indeed!
His statement on
India-Pakistan relation is a breath of fresh air. He talked of mending ties
with India through dialogue but as usual, he mentions Pakistan, the major bone
of contention on Indo-Pak bilateralism. What is his innovative approach to
Kashmir? He said if India takes one step we will take two! But he might fall
into Mao Tse Tung dictum “one step forward then two steps back”. He wants
normal relations with the United States, Pakistan’s main benefactor, but does
not want to leave China, their new benefactor.
To be sure, Imran
Khan’s speech reflects good intentions but political naivete too. At any rate,
India should welcome the change. Unlike the shrill of political competitors
that it is a rigged election. This is an internal matter of Pakistan. New Delhi
must welcome the new Prime Minister. He is unpredictable so we might expect
some dramatic development in Pakistan foreign policy. Leaders who break mould
can normalise Indo-Pak relations which is a desperate imperative for both the
countries. So good luck, Imran Khan, the new captain of Pakistan's ship!!!---INFA
(Copyright, India
News & Feature Alliance)
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