Political Diary
New
Delhi 20 March 2018
Heartland Gives
Heartache
BJP JUGGERNAUT BRAKED
By Poonam I Kaushish
Beware the Ides of March.
This adage has come to sting the BJP post its electoral defeat in UP and Bihar
and Chandrababu Naidu’s TDP quitting the
NDA, days after two of its Ministers quit Modi’s Government protesting for
special category status to Andhra Pradesh. Will the outcome alter the shape of
Indian politics, especially in Uttar Pradesh?
True, the 3-0 Parliamentary
by-polls loss are not the final word on which way the 2019 polls will go but
the fact that the BJP lost both Gorakhpur and Phulpur which were represented by
UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath since 1991 and his Deputy Keshav Maurya
alongwith the RJD retaining Araria in Bihar underscores all is not well and is
a clear warning to the Modi-Shah to set its house in order. From a total of 282
Lok Sabha seats it is down to 274.
Think. In the last few
months alone, the BJP has lost all five Lok Sabha by-elections in UP, Rajasthan
and Bihar (four of which it had won in 2014) and Assembly seats in Madhya Pradesh,
Rajasthan and Bihar.
All significant because the
BJP is in power in these States and Congress is its immediate challenger.
Additionally, the Grand Dame’s victory with huge margins underscores a weak BJP
leadership, growing anti-incumbency, internal fissures and continuing
dependence on the Prime Minister and Party President to win polls,
notwithstanding its emphatic win in the Northeast.
Notably, Since the Modi
tsunami in 2014, the BJP hasn't witnessed such a poll debacle. The loss of face
is more severe in UP given the Party's impressive scoreline was 71 out of 80
seats in the 2014 elections and 325 of 403 in Assembly polls last year.
Besides, the loss cannot be
pinned just to Akhilesh Yadav’s Samajwadi and Mayawati’s BSP bedding together
or over-confidence and complacency but other factors like intra-party rivalries
read Brahmin-Thakur, disillusioned urban and rural voters , disenchanted cadres
as Ministers are not accessible and their grievances are not addressed and
local leaders working at cross purposes.
The ‘Bua-Bhatija’ slogans that rent the air in Gorakhpur and Phulpur
last week may well became the model for the 2019 general elections and
encourage them to evolve a long-term alliance. The SP-BSP alliance is an
invincible caste combination which could mean a consolidation of 40-50% vote
share of Yadav, Muslims, Dalits and OBCs and in a three-cornered fight a
candidate needs only 30% votes to win. Hence, the regional satraps would bank
on playing up caste equations, but how it will prevent the Saffron Sangh from
polarising Hindu votes remains to be seen.
Mayawati would be preening
from ear to ear as this is the first time in six years that she reckons the
tide is turning for the netter. The BSP couldn’t even open its account in the
2014 polls and managed to win just 17 seats in UP’s Assembly last year. She
announced her support to the SP at the eleventh hour, first time since 1993 when
they had a bitter falling out.
Add to this, the SP-BSP
victory has given a fresh impetus to Opposition Parties to rally together for an
anti-BJP platform and stitch an alliance as the results show the Modi
juggernaut is stoppable. Akhilesh and Mayawati have broadly agreed to the
principle of “equal seats” for fighting the Lok Sabha polls. The next test for
the two erstwhile regional rivals is set to be the bypoll in Kairana in western
UP,
The results could boost a
revival of a Congress-NCP alliance in Maharashtra and a Congress-DMK pact in
Tamil Nadu. Along-with giving more confidence to BJP’s disgruntled allies to
air their grievances. Three States, UP which accounts for 80, Maharashtra with
41 and Bihar 33 total 154, a third of the lok Sabha strength.
The RJD’s victory in the
Araria polls shows that Lalu continues to retain his clout even behind bars,
highlighting sympathy for the Yadav clan embroiled in various corruption cases
whereby the BJP is perceived as selectively targeting its rivals.
Clearly, the SP-BSP-RJD
showed their mettle to take on the BJP. Reminding one of it being a throwback
to the classic Mandal-vs-Kamandal
politics of the 1990s, whereby their alliance edged out the BJP in the
aftermath of communal polarisation and the demolition of the Babri mosque.
It’s an ideal situation for
the Rahul-led Congress to reinvent itself. This is all the more imperative as
the BSP-SP victory seems to have diminished his bargaining power with the duo.
His over-ambitious zeal to go-it-alone left it badly mauled. He needs to get
his act together if the Congress has to retain its slot as a national Party.
Not only has it to grapple with its massive loss, being reduced to double digit
but also vote share, even in States considered to be its strongholds. The Party
faces the next test in Karnataka and then in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh this
year-end.
Undeniably, the slew of
defeats highlights that NaMo-Shah will have to rectify the internal fault-lines,
set its house in order, tweak its States’ leadership to retain an edge. Questionably,
is the Hindutva card past its expiry date? Else this “dress rehearsal” could be
prophetic.
Certainly, the BJP's double
standards – or opportunism to grab power at every cost have been visible for
some time. It has upset its supporters for giving membership to leaders it had
attacked, Congress’s controversial Maharashtra leader Narayan Rane, Samajwadi’s
Naresh Agarwal, who embarrassed the Sangh on his entry in to its folds, Vijay
Bahuguna in Uttarakhand, Himanta Sarma in Assam, Mukual Roy in West Bengal
etc.
Modi's trouble is that as
numero uno he has to battle on all fronts. Partly, he himself is to blame. He
has been unable to live up to his promise of Achhe Din and bhrashtachar mukt Bharat juxtaposed with Modi’s authoritative ‘it’s my
way or the highway’ machismo which make regional satraps and fence-sitters
jittery. Besides IOU (Index of Opposition Unity), there is also IVU (Index of
Voters' Unhappiness) working against the BJP.
As the BJP reviews the
causes for the shock defeat and goes back to the drawing board to fine-tune its
strategy for the 2019 elections, NaMo will have to work doubly hard, be as
resourceful and innovative as his adversary and seize the initiative back. Will
he be able to do so, remains to be seen, else the BJP and Modi can sigh: 272,
so close, yet so far!
All Parties need to realize
six months is a long time in politics, anything and everything can happen. New
permutations and combinations, caste calculations, defections-alliances galore,
behind the scene confabulations et al. A spark can ignite a new chingari given there are never any full
stops in politics. One lives to fight another day! ----- INFA
(Copyright, India
News & Feature Alliance)
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