Round The
World
New Delhi, 8 February 2018
India & Neighbours
RETRIEVING GEO POLITICAL ROLE
By Dr. DK. Giri
(Prof. International Politics, JMI)
‘India should be more
pro-active to stop China in Myanmar’, is Japan’s envoy in Myanmar, Yohei
Sasakawa advice. In the yester years of non-alignment, New Delhi would have grumbled
at to such unsolicited suggestion, but given the growing closeness between
India and Japan; both members of ‘Quad’, this comment should be taken
seriously. Not only Myanmar with which India has quite old relationship, and
shares 1600 km border, India’s ‘neighbourhood first’ policy is up for serious
re-working especially as China is aggressively making in-roads into the Indian
sub-continent.
Currently, there are
three political hotspots India ought to engage with. They are: the instability
in Maldives following the imposition of emergency, second, government formation
in Nepal in its transition to democracy from monarchy, and the continuing
crisis of Rohingya which internationally unsettles Myanmar.
Arguably, India could
re-assert her pre-eminent position in South Asia, in promoting regional peace
and economic integration. It has natural geographical advantages, economic complementarities,
shared cultural heritage and advantageous strategic position. But is New Delhi
doing enough and effectively in monitoring and mentoring its neighbourhood?
Prime Minister Modi began well by inviting all the heads from the neighbourhood
to his swearing-in ceremony in May 2014. He repeated this move by having 10
heads of ASEAN on this year’s Republic Day parade.
Apparently, such
diplomatic bonhomies are good photo-ops, if they are not translated into
concrete action on the ground. New Delhi will have to counter China’s
belligerent moves, policy of expansionism, backed by its enormous economic
clout, and military might. Admittedly, India is fifth of Chinese economy and
lesser in military, but it has other comparative advantages in political,
cultural and diplomatic terms which its neighbours appreciate and acknowledge.
India has the potential to catch up and overtake China in economy too provided
the political leadership pursues the economic goals with ingenuity and urgency.
Does New Delhi have a choice? Countering China is no more a political rhetoric,
it is a strategic necessity. Any complacency and inefficiency in India’s
neighbourhood policy would pave the way for China.
Evidently, Maldives
has moved closer to China with signing of a Free Trade Agreement.
Interestingly, the FTA was passed by the Maldives Parliament in the midnight in
the absence of opposition Members. This is the second FTA secured by China
after it signed one with Pakistan. The present President of Maldives Abdulla
Yameen Gayoom is said to be deeply corrupt and highly authoritarian. He is
plundering the country’s exchequer in complicity with his young Vice-President
who runs several rackets. Politically, Yameen is repressive, imprisoning and
eliminating his opponents.
The current crisis erupted
as the Supreme Court ruled on 1st February that government’s action on
incarcerating the Opposition leaders as politically motivated. President Yameen
refused to accept the Supreme Court’s verdict, cracked down on the judges,
political opponents, and imposed a 15-day emergency in the name of “fighting
the disruption of the function of the executive power, infringement on national
security and public interest”. The Opposition called it a desperate move to
purge the political opposition, the judiciary and Parliament. The Chief Justice
and other judges were under house arrest, the opposition MPs have urged the
international community to impress upon their government to respect the rule of
law.
The US and other
western democracies including India have called for the ‘rule of law’ to be
respected. The US has mildly warned the Maldives President to restore normalcy
and political order as the world is watching.
What is New Delhi up to?
India has had close relations with the island country. But, NaMo is yet to
visit the country, although he has hosted, President Yameen in India. This is a
glaring omission, and not in conformity with ‘Neighbourhood first’. It is time
for New Delhi to act fast and smart in restoring the democratic order in
Maldives.
To be sure, Maldives
is a small country but has significant strategic importance. The question of
non-intervention in internal affairs of other sovereign countries no longer
applies when a country’s constitutional machinery breaks down, political rights
and civil liberties are threatened. India has intervened in the past in Sri
Lanka, Bangladesh and even Maldives. Not doing so now will reduce India’s
importance in the region and leave it open for China to meddle.
A few days ago, Foreign
Minister Sushma Swaraj made a short visit to Nepal. It was a move to make-up
with the Prime Minister-elect K.P.S. Oli, a pro-Chinese Left politician. The
visit was a follow-up of a congratulatory message by Modi. NaMo’s visits to
Nepal in the early days of his premiership had raised an euphoria on India-Nepal
relations, which began to wane with the promulgation of the Constitution,
wherein people of Indian origin in Nepal were allegedly given a bad deal. The
relations reached its nadir when the Madhesis imposed a blockade on essential
items transported from India, again allegedly, with tacit support from New
Delhi.
The anti-India mood
in Nepal began to grow, and refuses to subside since. New Delhi has failed to
dispel Nepal’s apprehension of bullying and patronising approach of India.
Kathmandu, on the other hand, is moving closer to China to balance off New
Delhi’s overwhelming influence. It has joined the China’s controversial BRI
project and is planning other joint projects. New Delhi will have to give up
its inconsistent and segmented approach to Kathmandu and revive its old
traditional tie with Nepal.
Myanmar is another
hotspot India needs to deal with urgently, as an important strategic partner
like Japan has alerted. China is taking keen interest in Rohingya issue that
poses major international embarrassment for Myanmar. It is developing the
Kyaukpyu Port into a deep water port with an investment of $7.3 billion. This
will give a domino effect for China’s maritime strategy in the region. Beijing intriguingly
is supporting economically both the government as well as the armed groups,
namely the Kachin army. Therefore, both the military and the government are
wary of China.
India has announced
last December $25 million socio-economic development projects in Rakhine. It is
building a tri-lateral highway which will connect India, Myanmar and Thailand.
In order to compete with Chinese investment, India needs to partner with Japan
which has brokered a national ceasefire agreement between nine ethnic groups
and has extended a rehabilitation assistance of $100 million. Along with
development assistance, New Delhi should extend an active helping hand in
resolving the Rohingya crisis, which Naypyidaw considers a complex issue. The
US is ambivalent on Myanmar, was brooding sanctions, cancelled visas for Aung
San Suu Kyi. So, it is all the more urgent that New Delhi steps in to resolve
the Rohingya crisis and teams up with Japan in Myanmar’s development.
All in all, New Delhi
needs to spruce up its neighbourhood policy to counter China. In addition to
three discussed above, attention needs to be refocused on Sri Lanka, and
Pakistan as well. Dealing with Pakistan challenges India’s entire foreign
policy but Sri Lanka is not so tough to retrieve from China’s influence. Finally,
one can convincingly conclude India’s neighbourhood policy should put China as
the most important factor to reckon with.---INFA
(Copyright, India
News & Feature Alliance)
|