Round The
World
New Delhi, 11 January 2018
Trump & Pakistan
WHAT SHOULD INDIA DO?
By Dr. D.K. Giri
(Prof. International Politics, JMI)
US President Donald
Trump’s tweet on New Year eve on Pakistan has radically changed the
geo-political situation in South Asia seriously impacting India-Pakistan
relations. For past 15 years, especially after Osama Bin Laden was captured and
killed by American SEAL – (sea, air and land forces) on 2nd May
2011, the clouds of distrust of US administration have been hanging over
Pakistan. Trump has burst that cloud with this tweet. He said, “Pakistan is
giving nothing to us but lies and deceit and providing safe haven to
terrorists, in return of $33 billion aid over the last 15 years.”
Obviously, United
States is worried over Pakistan moving close to China as a serious collaborator
in China’s South and Central Asian designs. Also, Washington has not so far
received reliable and reciprocal support from Islamabad in its war against
Taliban terror in Afghanistan. On the contrary, Pakistan has misled the US on
its role in Afghanistan and has used American military and financial aid in
abetting trouble and terrorism in Kashmir.
Experts and observers
on America’s South Asia Policy contend that America’s latest salvo on Pakistan
stems out of either the ‘logic of strategic bargain, or logic of rebuff ’. In the former case, US would like to draw
maximum response from Pakistan on Afghanistan and pull it back from China’s
grasp. The logic of rebuff would mean America putting Pakistan in its place by
gradually cutting off all aid; and fixing alternative alliance for their
battles in Afghanistan. America has already suspended the FMF – foreign military
funding of $25 million and CSF – coalition support funding of $900 million.
As America, the main
player, so far, around Afghanistan crisis, takes a tough position against
Pakistan, what should India do to consolidate its policy vis-a-vis Pakistan?
But the moot question is, whether India has a robust and consistent policy
towards Pakistan? Let us address this puzzle, then adumbrate a Pakistan policy
in the light of America’s latest posturing.
Admittedly, India has
successfully campaigned across the world on Pakistan supporting terrorists and
sponsoring cross-border terrorism. Many international fora have named Pakistan
as a terror-supporting country. The latest reprimand came from FATF – Financial
Action Task Force, last November in Argentina. FATA is tasked to combat money
laundering and terrorist financing. It has called upon Pakistan to report on
the activities it was taking to curb terror funding; failing which, it warned
that it could be put on a watch list.
But what is India’s
Pakistan policy? It gets mixed up with emotions and legacies of partition.
Indians often would say, “They are like us, we have divided families, who still
yearn to meet.” It is time to drain our Pakistan policy of such emotions and
humanitarian telling. It is true that people-to-people contact will remain
warm, and humanitarian gestures like medical visas will be given. It is a part
of our cultural and civilisational ethos, absence of which will diminish us as
Indians. But these should have no place in foreign policy, argued Vivek Katju, former
Secretary in Ministry of External Affairs.
There has to be political
consensus on our policy towards Pakistan, and it should not be influenced by
our electoral politics or domestic social milieu. We will have to take an
unequivocal position that there is no room for discussion or negotiation on
Kashmir. Pakistan has to stop meddling in it. Furthermore, we should talk of
liberating the rest of Kashmir from Pakistani occupation. This might sound a
hawkish approach but nothing else will work until there is some radical
reorganisation of South Asian countries, whereas territorial affiliation
becomes immaterial or boundaries of countries are redrawn, not on the basis of
religion, but language etc. These ideas are in the realm of future
possibilities, not the present realities.
In the current
context, in the line of US’s latest position, New Delhi could do the following.
It could expose Pakistan’s “misplaced and ominous strategy of deniability”;
Pakistan’s attempt to destabilise India and project itself as the victim of
terrorism. Second, India should declare Pakistan a rouge State and act tough.
Third, it should stop delinking political leadership from the army, the latter
will not give up its stranglehold over Pakistan’s India policy because of the
importance and the budget it enjoys on India’s account. Fourth, India could
help support the supply chain of NATO forces in Afghanistan through Iran and Central
Asian States. Fifth, India could lobby with US for a few more steps.
One, US could remove
Pakistan from the category of non-NATO ally; two, it could end the alliance status
given by GW Bush to Pakistan under which the latter could receive special
assistance; three, Saudi Arabia and UAE are close allies of US. India and US
could mobilise these two countries to shut down funding to Taliban and
prosecute those funding the terrorist groups; four, US should label Pakistan as
a State sponsor of terrorism as it has done to Iran, and cut off all assistance
and engagement. In fact, a US Senator Rand Paul is planning to introduce a
legislation to eliminate all US aid to Pakistan, including supplies to F-16,
and other equipments. Finally, the US could block multinational bank funding
for Pakistan economy.
Evidently, America
has realised that Pakistan can no longer be trusted. Bob Corker, Chairman of
the Senate Foreign Relations Committee has supported Trump in his approach saying
“While Pakistan is an important country in our Afghanistan policy, they have
been very duplicitous in their dealings with us”. An expert, Bruce Riedel,
South Asian advisor to four US Presidents, says, “Like Obama made his
government’s AfPak policy a top priority, extensively used Drones against
al-Qaeda in 2009, Trump should do the same”. Many observers agree Trump is
different and he would make a difference, the whispers of his ambivalence, and
restlessness notwithstanding.
Trump’s “rantings” on
Pakistan have also rattled in China, and it has sprung to Pakistan’s defence. Its
Foreign Minister Lu Kang reacted, “China has always opposed linking terrorism
with any particular country and we do not agree to place the responsibility of
anti-terrorism on a certain country.” According to Beijing, countries should
strengthen anti-terrorism collaboration on the basis of mutual respect instead
of finger-pointing. This is not conducive to global terrorism efforts.
Predictably, Pakistan
may move even closer to China. From reports available, Pakistan may allow China
to build a military base in Jiwani near Chabahar port jointly developed by
Iran, Afghanistan and India. Also, Jiwani is closer to Gwadar port in
Baluchistan which is being developed by China.
From the above
scenario, India’s Pakistan policy may be a sub-text of India’s China policy.
What is India’s China Policy? A policy of containment, conciliation or
confrontation? As a matter of fact, so far, it is all three. But, China’s
aggressive territorial claims on India are unlikely to subside. New Delhi has
to brace itself to stand up to China, and now a ChinPak axis. How does India do
it? Not on its own, nor through a non-aligned position. It has to make
strategic alliances to counter this axis. A normal relation with Pakistan
without a balance of terror is something many peaceniks would advocate and I
would go along with that. But the choice is between what is desirable and what
is doable. Pragmatism and sagacity would suggest the latter, so let us do so.
---INFA
(Copyright, India
News & Feature Alliance)
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