Round The
World
New Delhi, 21 December 2017
India’s Neighbourhood
A SHRINKING CIRCLE
By Dr D.K. Giri
(Prof. International Politics, JMI)
India’s credibility
as a regional leader in South Asia and the cosy and harmonious relations it has
enjoyed with all SAARC countries, barring Pakistan, is no longer the same.
China is slowly and surreptitiously chipping away at India’s influence and
credibility. It does so with its new-found wealth by trapping India’s
neighbours into receiving loans, as they attempt to tap into China’s ‘surplus
money’.
Is India to blame
only itself for letting its neighbours move away from its sphere of influence?
Or, one should be wary of China’s policy of expansionism, its adroit but
duplicitous trade and economic relations? Beijing is always seeking to increase
its options as it wants to curtail those of its adversaries, mainly New Delhi
whom it perceives as its competitor. The jury is out on this: is it China’s
aggression and economic dominance, its ‘smile diplomacy’, in South Asia, or it
is India’s flip-flops with its neighbours?
The country of
traditional long-time friendship and of its geo-political significance in the
power play between India and China is Nepal. Both India and Nepal have had a
very close relation without borders. In the past, even China had advised Kathmandu
to sustain its closeness to India, as it has desisted from getting involved in
Nepal’s internal affairs, and India-Nepal relations. But this is no longer the
case. China is actively engaged with Nepal. It has roped the latter into its
ambitious OBOR Project. It is contemplating a high-land rail link between
Kathmandu and Tibet.
In the recent General
election, the Left Alliance of Communist Party of Nepal and Maoist Centre has
won and in six of the seven provincial elections. The Left Alliance, which
would be led by KP Oli, as Prime Minister has been critical of India’s meddling
in Nepal’s domestic issues. He has stressed the ‘inalienable’ sovereignty of
Nepal, in an oblique reference to India’s ‘domineering’ stance, and has talked
about ‘balanced relations’ with neighbours which means equal treatment to both
its big neighbours – China and India. This is a snub to India as Nepalese have
‘kith and kin’ approach to India, privileging New Delhi over Beijing and
Brussels, or Washington.
Obviously, Nepal is
undergoing a tortuous transition to democracy from monarchy. The political
stability promised by its leaders time and again is becoming a distant dream.
India with its long experience of a stable democracy, unlike China which is
authoritarian, should come handy for Kathmandu. Although economic interests
override politics, without political stability there is no peace, security and
economic progress. Is India able to proffer that choice to Nepal?
Similar is the
scenario with Sri Lanka and Maldives, although in these two countries, it is
purely economic interest. Since the end of the civil war, wherein Sri Lanka
clandestinely sought and received support from China, Sri Lanka has tilted
towards Beijing. It has handed over port Hambantota in a 99-year lease to the State-run
Chinese company, China’s Merchants Port Holdings. The port was built with an
investment of $1.5 billion, 85% of which came as a loan from China at an
interest of 6.5%. Sri Lanka was to begin raising money from the port by 2013.
But, it is estimated that the cumulative losses by 2016-end is $3 billion. Many
observers argue that investment from China is a trap, yet they walk into it for
the sake of political dividends at home and to keep their projects going.
Sri Lanka has been
railing against a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement with India, but
is signing FTA with China. Beijing knows Lanka is an island of considerable
strategic significance in the Indian Ocean. Why is Sri Lanka slipping away from
India’s sphere of friendship?
Maldives, a small
country known for its peace and stability, tuna and tourism is also signing a
FTA with China. This August, it allowed three warships to dock in Male. It has
joined the China’s Maritime Belt and Road initiative. A Chinese-Maldives
friendship bridge is planned to be built between two Maldivian
islands-Hulhumale and Male. The International airport is being renovated and
expanded by the Chinese.
Recall, the contract
to do so was given to GMR – Male International Airport Ltd. (GMIAL) and was
later cancelled. GMIAL took it to International Arbitration Tribunal which
ordered Maldives to pay to GMIAL $270 million. Maldives promptly paid, although
India suspected China put the money. Almost 70% of Maldives foreign debt is
owed to China, and the loan interest is 20% of Maldives budget.
Now, let us take the
obvious candidate, Pakistan, which is ready to align with anyone against India.
Because of the protracted and seemingly irreconcilable contention over Kashmir,
the two countries have had no normal bilateral relation since they split, 70
years ago. Pakistan’s animosity against India got exacerbated by the creation
of Bangladesh. In late 1980s, USSR invaded Afghanistan in order to secure
maritime access, as USSR, now Russia and other splinters are land-locked
countries. America promptly jumped into the fray to stall Russian moves by
supporting Taliban and allying with Pakistan.
In the process,
Pakistan got infested with terrorism, got financially and militarily supported
by USA; all of which it turns against India. Washington realised that Pakistan
was no longer an honest ally in fighting terrorism, so it roped in India to play
an active part in Afghanistan. The influence of Soviet Union in the world
declined, as the Union disintegrated, and China rose to replace USSR as the
other super power to counter the US.
Like USSR was an ally
of USA in the 2nd World War, China worked closely with the US in the
globalised world. Pakistan swiftly switched side and went along with China. In
making and unmaking of alliances in the region, the rivalry between Pakistan
and India did not lessen; on the contrary, it became worse.
On December 18,
Pakistan’s National Security Advisor Lt Gen (Retd) Nasser Khan Janjua has
echoed the foregoing analysis in a seminar, and as an indication of
Islamabad’s frustration, said that
‘nuclear war’ with India is a possibility as Pakistan would not fall into
Indian provocation of conventional war and lose. We have heard such
irresponsible and desperate utterances from Pakistan officials before, but such
threats need not be treated as mere rhetorics, given the unstable and volatile
nature of Pakistani politics.
A few days ago, there
has been a dastardly attack on the Christians praying in a Church in Quetta.
Targeting a tiny minority shows how insecure Pakistan has become under the
shadow of Islamist terrorists like Haqqani network and Taliban. The provocation
for this attack is supposedly Donald Trump’s audacious and ‘irresponsible’
recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, ignoring the spiritual
claims of Muslims on it.
India’s Pakistan
policy is in tatters in a sense, as there is hardly any sign of rapprochement
between New Delhi and Islamabad. It seems ‘the balance of terror’ backed by
strategic alliances stitched by both will be the new normal in their
bilateralism.
All in all, India has
to face the challenge of China which is shrinking the circle of India’s
influence on its neighbourhood. I have so long maintained that India cannot
match China at present in trade and investment, however detrimental they are to
the recipients, and India will catch up and overtake China in 20 to 30 years
time. But for now, India has to use its political and cultural resources to
counter China, adopting a non-Marxist, but progressive and pluralist foreign
policy. ---INFA
(Copyright, India
News & Feature Alliance)
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