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Round The World
New Delhi, 26 October 2017
The
Dragon Blinks
PRAGMATIC
ENGAGEMENT
By Dr.
D.K. Giri
(Prof.
International Politics, JMI)
The Chinese President Xi Jinping, expectedly,
emerged stronger after the quinquennial Communist Party Congress last week. The
19th Congress since the Party was founded in 1921 Xi has the
prerogative of nominating 70% of the Party’s Central Committee, its e most
powerful apex organ, and would stay in office for a third or even fourth term
beyond 2022. This is contrary to Party tradition whereby a successor to the
incumbent President is chosen five years before he or she takes office. At this
Congress, no such thing happened.
Obviously, India and the world would have to
deal with Xi for another decade as he is popular and occupies the exalted
position by successfully fighting corruption and consolidating the development
plank. In his marathon speech lasting over three and a half hours he adumbrated
Chinese agenda in all its dimensions. He talked of the ‘Chinese dream’ which is
interpreted as an ambition of being a world power and building Chinese military
as the world’s largest one.
Should India be wary of the Chinese ‘dream’?
True, New Delhi is in an adversarial position with its neighbour as it shares
4000 kms of borders. Further, China’s geo-political approach in the region
coupled with its expansionist tendency should bother India.
But let us understand Chinese ideology shaped
afresh by Xi who is now mentioned in the Chinese Constitution amended by Congress.
This rare honour was given only to two other leaders: Mao Zedong and Den
Xiaoping. Xi’s ideology consists of two major objectives: nationalism and
capitalism.
How do both affect India? As China’s current
standing in the world rests on its economic might, capitalism carefully crafted
and built by the Communist Party, in its quest for continued growth based on
exports, Beijing would look for markets. As European markets are saturated and
experiencing slump, India becomes the ultimate market for it.
Having realized this, Xi while visiting India
in 2014, had suggested closer relationship with New Delhi. Asserting, “we
should aim for expansion of strategic communication among leaders, maintaining
border stability, enhancing economic cooperation and people-to-people contact”.
No wonder, China has decided to invest US $85
billion in India and despite popular angst against Beijing’s aggressive
posturing against its neighbour Chinese
goods continue to flood Indian markets. Will China stake its huge economic
benefit from India by engaging in a military confrontation?
The other pillar of ideology is ‘nationalism’
or ‘Chinese Core’. A nationalistic agenda generates anti-India rhetoric in the Chinese
Establishment whereby its nationalism has led Chinese forces and border guards
to nibble away undefined borders, claiming vast swathes of territory in South
China Sea and Japan-claimed Senkaku islands.
In the same vein, Beijing rivals New Delhi’s
status on Asia’s stage. China has made several incursions on the Indo-China borders,
Depsang plains in April-May 2013, Chumar in the Western sector in 2014-15,
Barahoti area of the middle sector in mid-2016, Doklam face-off in 2017 that
lasted for 73 days.
In addition, China has consistently blocked
India’s entry into the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) which controls global
atomic commerce, vetoed the UN declaring Jaishe-e-Mohammad Chief Masood Azar a
terrorist and runs its China-Pakistan economic corridor projects through
Gilgit-Baltistan which affects India’s sovereignty.
More serious, China has encircled India with its
‘string of pearls’ whereby Beijing will endevour to expand its naval presence
by building civilian maritime infrastructure along the Indian Ocean periphery. Simplistically,
it implies access to ports and air-fields, expansion and modernization of
military forces and fostering diplomatic relations with trading partners.
Importantly, ‘string of pearls’ in geo-strategic
terms refers to the Malacca Strait, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Maldives, Strait of
Hormuz and Somalia. It also includes Bangladesh and Myanmar. Pertinently, the Malacca
Strait, not far from Nicobar Islands, connects the Indian Ocean with the Pacific
Ocean, Malaysia, and Singapore on one side and Indonesia on the other.
Besides, about 80%t of Chinese fuel from the Middle
East passes through this. From Myanmar, 2,400 kms of gas pipeline has been
built by China which also has a military base in Myanmar’s Coco Island. Beijing
has invested US $46 billion in Pakistan’s Gwadar port as a part of their joint economic
corridor. The Gwadar port is 240 miles away from the Strait of Hormuz which
gives an opening to Central Asia.
This port also connects to the Karakoram
highway linking it with the Arabian Sea, which is of concern to India. Moreover,
China has invested in building Sri Lanka’s
Hambantota port on its South-East part. Similarly, it has built a
container shipping facility in Chittagong, Bangladesh. It has a military base
in Maldives’s Masao Atoll.
Undeniably, China’s capitalist economy
depends on foreign sources for its energy security. It is the largest importer
of oil. The sea lines of communication that link the Chinese mainland with
ports throughout the Middle East and Africa coasts have become a major source
of conflict for China with other countries. True, the ‘string of pearls’ might
be economic in nature but, admittedly, it creates a security dilemma for China
and India in the Indian Ocean.
How should India respond to this? Going by
historical experience, New Delhi cannot be complacent and ignore Beijing’s
moves. In fact, it should play the Chinese game: Deepen trade and economic
links which will deter Beijing from any military adventurism.
Two, India should encircle China with allies
that are affected by Beijing and are opposed to its aggressive actions. New
Delhi has already invested heavily in diplomacy with countries around China,
Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, and Mongolia. It should
consolidate its relations with traditional friends like Japan, South Korea and
Russia. In South-East Asia new potential allies are Philippines, Singapore,
Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam who are wary of China.
Undoubtedly, Chinese nationalism and
capitalism would lead to neo-imperialism through domination in trade, military
bullying and wherever it can territorial expansion. Beijing would not want to
jeopardize its economic interest, but the military angle might be used
precisely for protecting its economic gains.
Notably, India has moved closer to China’s
arch rival Japan and US. Beijing will be
wary of New Delhi’s increasing nearness to these countries. It might seek to
disengage India from Japan and US and allies of America. India, on its part, is
unlikely to do so, given Chinese proximity with Pakistan which aids and abets
terrorism against India.
Will China follow the proverbial strategy,
“if you cannot beat them, join them”? That is a probable, given Chinese
proclivity for guarding its self-interest in lieu of principles and trust. But
New Delhi cannot count on this. It has to engage with China pragmatically. We
should learn from past mistakes vis-à-vis
China. Hence, New Delhi should deeply study Sun Tzu’s ‘Art of War’ to deal with
China. This calls for a combination of economic might, diplomatic skill and military
strategy. Is New Delhi up to it? It better be. ----- INFA
(Copyright, India
News & Feature Alliance)
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