Open Forum
New Delhi, 13 September 2017
Warming Signals
STEPS TOO LITTLE, TOO LATE
By Dhurjati Mukherjee
Most countries,
including India, have announced various measures to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions, but these are abysmally inadequate. A recent study has again rung
warning bells citing serious implications it would have in various sectors,
including food production, floods, droughts and other types of natural
disasters.
A research by University
of California, Berkeley has observed that a rise in temperature may have catalysed
about 59,300 suicides in India over three-and-a-half decades. When temperatures
are above 20 C, a one degree rise on a single day during the monsoon season can
on an average be accompanied by over 70 suicides over the normal rate. The
study, published in the Proceedings of
the National Academy of Sciences, also found that an increase in the
growing season rainfall by 1 cm is associated with a decrease of about 8 suicides
per million.
Such prediction of
rise in temperature is nothing new as was confirmed way back in 2015 by the
Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune. Apparently, scientists
along those from France and US, warned temperatures in the country are to rise
by 20C by the middle of the century but this may become a reality much earlier,
at least in some parts of India, and by 3.50 to 40 C by the end of the century.
These were based on scientific and mathematical formulas used in tandem to
predict the future climate pattern. One such model suggested temperatures could
rise by as much as 60 C by end century.
Even a UN report
stated: “The INDCs have the capacity of limiting the forecast temperature rise
to around 2.7 degree Celsius by 2100, by no means enough but a lower than the
estimated four, five or more degrees of warming projected by many prior to the
INDCs”. Additionally, the world would just have nearly 250 giga tonne (Gt) of
carbon dioxide for development work beyond 2030. This is certain to hit poor
and developing countries of Asia and Africa the most as these would not be in a
position to peak their emission by 2030.
Remember, the fourth
IPCC report on climate change had much earlier pointed that a temperature rise
above 2 degrees Celsius from 1990 levels might not be ecologically sustainable.
The upper bound on temperature increase translates into upper bound on
greenhouse gas emissions and the resultant effects that were outlined include: extreme weather conditions
in most parts of the world; shifting wind and rainfall patterns making dry
areas drier and wet areas wetter; acceleration of emission rates of CO2 due to
industrialization, increased energy consumption, unsustainable agricultural
practices and, course,
population growth; more hurricanes and floods forming now than a century ago,
threatening millions of people along the world’s coastlines, specially in the
Third World; ocean
variability and glacier melting causing sea level rise resulting in inundation
in areas nearer to the sea; killing of coral reefs faster, causing them to
disappear twice as fast as rainforests on land; and deforestation and other
forms of habitat destruction, pollution and poaching affecting animals, plants
and of course human beings.
Most of these
predictions have become a reality now. The floods and droughts in the country
have been causes of deep concern. However, various measures are being taken at
the national level, the most important being the government’s resolve to expand
solar power in a massive way and make it affordable. Over the past two years,
coal use increased by just 2.2 per cent, a sharp fall from the previous ten
years when average annual growth was over 6 per cent, as per recent findings of
Greenpeace Energy desk.
Meanwhile, India has
committed to produce 40 per cent of its electricity from non fossil sources of
energy by 2030 under the Paris accord. It is, therefore, planning to scale up
targets for renewable energy capacity from 30 GW by 2016-17 to 175 GW by
2021-22. It is quite evident that renewable are booming in the country due to
increasingly cost competitiveness of solar and wind installations.
Recently, a Supreme
Court bench restrained manufacturers of firecrackers and similar other
substances from using substances like lithium, antimony, mercury, arsenic and
lead aimed at checking air and noise pollution that have been increasing over
the years in big cities.
Lithium, as is well
known, is a metal used to impart red colour to fireworks and antimony to create
glitter effects. Similarly, lead oxide is used to provide a special crackling
effect which, if inhaled in high concentration, could cause damage to the
nervous system. This is one of the many measures being taken by the authorities
in tackling pollution.
The problem of
controlling pollution in a high density population country is indeed quite
challenging more so because a major section are impoverished. Thus, health
consciousness is very poor and while in the western world has full proof
preventive medicine standards these are completely unknown in our country, even
among the middle class.
Another significant
order of the apex court has been imposition of 100 per cent penalty for illegal
extraction of iron ore and manganese ore in Odisha since 2001 and pay
compensation of Rs 17.576. It rejected the plea of the Centre and SC appointed
Central Empowered Committee that only 30 per cent value of the mineral be
recovered from the companies. This order would henceforth stop mining without
environmental clearance. It is also significant that the court suggested
setting up an expert committee under a retired judge to identify the lapses and
the spread of environmental pollution.
Such steps are no
doubt laudable but, the measures adopted in most countries are far from
adequate. As such, the prediction of increase in warming levels and attendant effects
of floods and droughts is destined to have a severe effect on humans. Mention
may also be made of a report of the Asian Development Bank released in July
this year that found 13 of the top cities with the highest projected flood
losses from 2005 to 2050 in the Asia Pacific region and include Kolkata,
Chennai, Mumbai and Surat.
In such a scenario,
the future looks quite challenging. Managing climate change involves exhaustive
exploration and discovery of organisational potential, business processes and
options for greenhouse gas abatement through research and development. Though
the Indian government pledged that it would never allow the country’s per
capita emissions to exceed the average per capita emissions of industrialised
countries, this needs to be strictly adhered to by the country as also China
and other emerging economies.
Special efforts have
to be made to identify and check climate change impacts on human health, water
resources, coastal areas and agriculture as this is vital for a large segment
of the country’s population. Innovative efforts are needed in areas such as
dryland farming, soil conservation methodologies, watershed management as also
other agricultural technologies so that farm production is not hampered. In
fact, it is time for all governments in the Asia Pacific region, including
India, to become more serious about the impending fall-out of the warming
catastrophe and evolve strategies for effective promotion and implementation in
specific areas that could counter the threat. ---INFA
(Copyright,
India News & Feature Alliance)
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