Round The
World
New Delhi, 30 August 2017
Nepal PM Visit
SEEKING TO REBUILD TIES
By Dr DK Giri
(Prof, International Politics, JMI)
The recent visit of
Nepalese Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba to India assumes unusually great
significance in the current scenario. The Doklam stand-off between India and China
is into the third month, and Kathmandu claims to maintain “special relations”
with both countries.
India’s strategic
concern of being encircled by China through its neighbours is most evident in
Nepal. When there was the economic blockade of Nepal on Indian borders, with
‘alleged’ support from New Delhi, Kathmandu turned to Beijing, which pumped in
requisite goods and services. Kathmandu has tangibly turned to China as it was
wary of South Block’s Nepal policy, especially since it abolished the monarchy
and became a republic.
First, it feels India
has not been supportive in the difficult transition to democracy. It was only taking
up the cause of Madhesis, who were fighting for equal representation etc under
the new Constitution. Second, New Delhi is micro-managing the politics in
Kathmandu. Third, RSS leadership is more interested in Nepal being a Hindu
Kingdom than a Secular Republic and would like the influence of Monarchy to be
revived and retained which was apparently conditioned to Nepal’s Hindu profile.
Fourth, Nepal would like to dip its hands into the deep pockets of China, as India’s
Ambassador to Nepal Deep Kumar Upadhyay said in an IDSA seminar: “It is China
who has the surplus money today and we are trying, like others, to get some of
it in investment etc.”
Deuba’s five-day visit
was also important as, admittedly, India-Nepal relations have become sour after
the enactment of the Constitution on 20 September 2015; and the Madhesis,
Nepalese with their origins from Bihar and Eastern UP, felt discriminated. They
led protests in Parliament and on the streets and these were believed to have New
Delhi’s tacit support. At one point, it was said that India had imposed the economic
blockade, causing considerable strain to Nepal’s economy and society. Though
the Indian government vehemently denied it saying the blockade was caused by
internal conflicts in Nepal, it failed to convince the Nepalese.
Relations between the
two plummeted for a brief period since. There was an anti-India feeling
sweeping across the hills as the people in the Terai region claimed the support
of Government of India. Although, in recent years there has been ebb in flow of
the relationship, the two have had a very special relationship since the
signing of the Friendship Treaty in 1950. Nepal is the only country which
enjoys borderless access to India and Nepalese are treated at par with Indians
and vice-versa.
However, with emergence
of China as a big power in the neighbourhood, India’s relations with its
neighbours are being influenced. Nepal is no exception. India’s neighbours play
the China card whenever they are concerned about the “over lordship of India,
or they seek to gain greater concessions from their big brother, India.”
India has been the
biggest donor and trade partner of Nepal. Now, China claims to have overtaken it
in its trade and investment. India-Nepal relations’ survey reveals: They have
historical and civilisational links; are connected through kinship and culture,
both religion and language; Nepal has 1800 km of open border with India
touching five States -- Bihar, UP, West Bengal, Sikkim, and Uttarakhand; there
are one million Indians living in Nepal and 4 million-odd Nepalese residing in
India; the Indian Army has 32000 Gurkhas serving and 126,000 retired pensioners;
after the One rank one pension scheme Rs.4000, crore pension is paid to retired
Nepalese.
Additionally, India
is its largest trading partner. The trade between the two increased from 29 per
cent to 66 per cent. Exports from Nepal increased from NR 230 cr to 3713.5 cr
in 2013-14. Likewise, Indian exports to Nepal increased from 1525 cr in 1995-96
to 29545.6 cr in 2013-2014. India’s direct investment in Nepal amounts 40% of
its total FDI. In development assistance, New Delhi has extended Rs 300 cr aid
to Kathmandu; gives 3000 scholarships for higher studies; has given three lines
of big credit so far, US$ 100 million in 2006-7, $250 million in 2011-12 and $1billion
in 2013-2014. In this visit, both have inked eight MOUs of $250 million.
However, from Kathmandu’s point of view it is worried over the persistent trade
deficit with India.
There is no
gainsaying the fact that China is trying all means to woo Nepal. It is worried
that Deuba chose to make India his first foreign visit. He is also known to be
more India-inclined than both Khadga Prasad, Sharma Oli, of the Communist Party
of Nepal, and Pushpa Kamal Dahal, Chairman, Communist Party of Nepal
(Maoist-centre). During the latter two PMs’ tenure, Nepal joined the
adventurous one-belt-one-road (OBOR) project of China. And Nepal remains neutral
on the Doklam stand-off.
Deuba has to do
tight-rope walking between India and China. His detractors are watching if he
could get New Delhi to start some of the big projects signed. One such being
the hydro project, called Mahakali Treaty signed in 1996, in his earlier stint
as PM, which sadly is yet to take-off.
New Delhi has also
apparently shifted its position, which is staying away from Nepal’s internal
contradictions, extending help only if it is called for, and dealing with Nepal
as a country. It would remain neutral to the internal contestations on the
nature of the Constitution, the nature and degree of representation to
different sections of people. India has to be sensitive to the deep as well as
widespread political divisions across the country.
At this particular time
of Nepal’s painful and fractious democratic evolution, maintaining unity of
perspective and opinions is difficult, exacerbating the differences is easy.
India should do all it can to bring the political actors in Nepal together. At
the same time, Nepal in its pursuit of national interest should not distance
from its long term partner and mentor that India has been. It has done so by
joining OBOR without India and remaining neutral on Doklam. Notably, the Nepalese
Ambassador in Delhi kept mum when asked whether he expected India to be neutral
when Kathmandu is in trouble or in conflict with another country!
Both India and Nepal
have to realise and reaffirm that their relations are more than transactional,
covering whole gamut of contacts between their people. China is wary of a
resurgent India and is seeking to encircle it, by buying off its neighbours. New
Delhi will have to show it to Beijing that the latter may have a military and
economic edge over it at present, but its success in winning lies in its display
of democracy, that is viable and enduring. Kathmandu too should see that
difference, as it struggles for past 11 years, since the monarchy, to stabilize
its nascent democracy. ---INFA
(Copyright, India
News & Feature Alliance)
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