Round The World

New Delhi, 18 August 2017

N Korea-US War Cry

INDIA’S STAKE IN CRISIS

By Dr. DK Giri

(Prof. of International Politics, JMI)

The war cry between North Korea and the United States has in the past few days become subdued. However, the two sides eventually going to war cannot be completely ruled out, unless of course diplomatic channels open up fast.

As is known, North Korea threatened to bomb Guam, an American territory in the Pacific. And the US al set to retaliate heavily. President Donald Trump, unlike his predecessors in the White House has already blown the bugle for war. Should North Korea lift a finger at the US, Trump vows to respond with “fire and fury” that the world has never seen before. He warned that the US army is ‘locked and loaded’ to take on North-Korea.

China, the mainstay behind North Korea has joined the fray and has urged both Washington and Pyongyang to restrain. North-Korea has heeded Beijing’s advice, as the former’s nuclear-military power is the creation of China. Should there be a war; China has little option other than defending North Korea. Beijing has so much at stake in North Korea. Out of total trade of North Korea, China controls over 90 per cent. North Korea’s military and nuclear arsenal is built entirely by China. It is asserted by the Chinese that their relations with North Korea are as close as the ‘lips and teeth’.

So if China is involved in North Korean and US stand-off, can India be far behind! New Delhi and Beijing seem to stalk each other in the international arena, and currently, have a face-off at Doklam for past two months. Only a couple of days ago, the two sides’ soldiers came to blows in the Ladhak Border.  

India’s stake in the Korean peninsula is immense. New Delhi should be wary of North Korea as it has a huge trade relation with South Korea, the primary stakeholder of North Korean nuclearisation and aggression. North Korea has aided Pakistan’s nuclear process and has supported Islamabad’s position on Kashmir. Moreover, North Korea is the closest ally of China. So, dealing with North Korea alongside South Korea, Japan and the US is engaging with China. India, therefore, needs to engage. Recently, the US Admiral Harry Harris urged New Delhi to play its role saying: “India’s voice is a loud voice, and people pay attention to it”.

The war-like situation developed in North Korea when it tested two ICBMs – Intercontinental Ballistic Missile, which can carry nuclear warheads to strike any part of the American territory. Pyongyang embarked on nuclearisation with active material support of Beijing in violation of the restraining agreements, mainly the 1992 Declaration on the De-nuclearisation of Korean peninsula, on reconciliation and non-aggression. Some experts believed that Pyongyang’s nuclear belligerence was meant to secure diplomatic concessions from the US.

Others interpret it as North Korean’s apprehension of going Iraq and Afghanistan way under the US aggression, unless they equip to defend themselves. It is no secret that Washington has been on the side of Seoul doing brisk business and has maintained that Pyongyang’s nuclear ambitions are not congenial to Korean peace. The US has been carrying out joint-military drills with South Korea, and 28,500 of its troops -- soldiers, sailors, airmen and marines are stationed in that country. China has been aiding and abetting North Korea’s militarisation as it is alarmed by THAAD – Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, a joint-mechanism by the US and South Korea. The powerful radar installed in it can see far into China. However, later, the current President Kim Jong-Un went beyond Chinese control. Beijing joined other countries in imposing sanctions against North Korea.

China is in a fix on North Korea. If there were a war, the United States would get instant support of South Korea and Japan and its other allies, and the conflict may spill over to East China and North China. Therefore, although China realises that US “only wants to heighten the sanctions and the military threats against Pyongyang” Xi Jinping’s government has banned Pyongyang’s exports of coal, iron ore, and seafood. But is Beijing willing and able to enforce these sanctions? Will China accommodate the American wish to stop the sale of oil and gas to Pyongyang, to deny Pyongyang’s access to Chinese banks, and stop cross-border movement of consumer goods? It is very unlikely.

As Beijing is caught in a long-standing border dispute with India, its major competitor in Asia, it may not want to escalate the tensions between North Korea and the US. The aggressive, unprecedented posturing by Trump has caught China off-guard. In fact, one theory is that Trump has turned Doklam tide in India’s favour by raising heat over North Korea. On Doklam, the US and the UK are more on the Indian side than on the Chinese. According to Lord Meghnad Desai, Prime Minister Modi and President Trump are in direct contact over this stand-off. When Trump called Modi to greet him on India’s Independence Day, the latter is said to have showered praise over his handling of North Korea.

India has been involved in the Korean peninsula in the past, but has not been effective primarily because it is still not a permanent member of the Security Council. Secondly, as a non-aligned country, India had the support of some Third World countries, but not much clout. Now, it is perceived as an ally of the US, Israel, Japan, and other European countries. So, it commands greater attention.

China has been bullying its neighbours with its nouveau riche status in the world; it has been buying off Indian neighbours by trade, investment and financial support. As Karl Marx had suggested, capitalism leads to imperialism, China is treading dangerously that path. What India needs to do is to engage China along with South Korea, Japan and US on North Korea and make it realise that Beijing cannot throw its weight around, flex its economic muscle and exacerbate conflicts between North and South Korea, India and Pakistan and so on.

Beijing’s policies have created war like situations in several conflict zones which may explode anytime. While it knows how to make money by using cheap labour with an authoritarian, anti-democratic political set-up, it has limited diplomatic skills. It can create conflicts but cannot contain or mitigate these. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has said that Japan and the US are itching for a limited military conflict in North Korea. The same could be said about China on South-China Sea, Doklam, and other border areas connecting India. North Korea provides an opportunity for India to prove a point to China that is cannot go on bullying others with its economic strength. There are principles, laws, treaties and conventions that govern international relations. ---INFA

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)