Events & Issues
New
Delhi, 29 June 2017
Presidential Poll
TEST FOR PARTY ALLIANCES?
By Dr S Saraswathi
(Former Director, ICSSR, New Delhi)
The official announcement of the Presidential
candidates by the NDA and Opposition after much speculation and anxious wait has
set the ball rolling for a reality check. With increase in the number of
political parties and firm establishment of coalition politics, election of the
President is in a way a test for survival of current alliances and opportunity
for re-alignment.
From the beginning, there has been no sincere
or serious effort to find a consensual candidate. Contest between the two main groups looked
inevitable. Indeed, contest has been the rule and unopposed selection an
exception that happened only once in presidential election. That was in 1977
when Neelam Sanjiva Reddy nominated by the Janata Party was elected after
Internal Emergency when the Congress was in receding tide.
Voters being Parliament members of Lok Sabha
and Rajya Sabha and MLAs of 31 States and Union Territories, building majority
is no easy task in the politics of alliances fiercely pursued today. It
necessarily involves coming together of many parties -- many of them regional.
Electors in the Presidential election include
4,120 MLAs of 31 States + 776 MPs (543 Lok Sabha and 233 Rajya Sabha members)
belonging to different parties. They are divided among the two major teams ---
NDA and UPA – the neutral group, and fence sitters for this indirect presidential
election.
Majority by number of voters is not the
decisive factor in this election. It is a rather complicated arithmetical
exercise designed to ensure parity between the Union and States and to take
into account relative population size represented by the voters. Each vote
carries weightage, which is the value of votes. The value of the vote of every
MP is equal throughout the country and is far higher than that of a MLA.
The value of the vote of MLAs differs from
State to State as it is related to the population of concerned States and to
the number of Assembly constituencies in that State. The value of one MLA’s
vote is calculated as Total population of the State or Union Territory/Total
number of elected members of the State divided by 1,000. The value of each MLA
vote of each State is calculated and then the total value of votes of all MLAs
of all States aggregated.
The value of the vote of each MP is equal to
the total value of votes of all MLAs of all States/total number of elected
members of MPs of LS and RS. Thus, the total value of votes of all the elected
members of Parliament will be equal to the total value of votes of all the MLAs
of all the States. This is intended to secure parity between the States and the
Union. By this way, the total value of votes of 776 MPs is 5,49,495 and of MLAs
5,49,408.
A noteworthy feature of presidential poll is
that there is no provision for issuing party whip and hence there is no scope
for anti-defection law to play a role. Members are technically free to vote
according to their wish. The hold is party discipline, and bondage within by
any effective tie-- voluntary or involuntary-- serves to discourage cross
voting.
Inapplicability of whip became the instrument
of Indira Gandhi to field VV Giri against the official Congress nominee Neelam
Sanjiva Reddy in 1969. Her appeal for “conscience vote” succeeded in elevating
her candidate as the President. However, the price paid by the party was the
great split and more than that, a permanent blot on the party.
The transitory character of political party
alliances is being reaffirmed and openly exhibited today in extending support
to the two principal contenders -- Ram Nath Kovind and Meira Kumar. Each party
and in some cases, each faction within a party has its own reason. Politics of
alliance comes into play, but not “alliance dharma”.
For the BJP and the Congress alone, it is a
contest between their candidates. For others, it is a question of supporting or
opposing the candidates fielded by the two, or remaining in or leaving the
block with which they are presently associated.
The biggest surprise is the decision of the
JD(U) to support NDA nominee who happened to be the Bihar Governor. For the
Congress which is hoping to cement a block for 2019 General Election, it is a
shock. It triggered a war of words within the ruling grand alliance in
Bihar.
For the onlookers, the break coming soon
after the national “political summit” of non-NDA leaders at the birthday gathering at
Karunanidhi’s residence in Chennai, it is an interesting development. For political analysts, it is a
lesson in alliance politics which is already riddled with uncertainties. The
party also openly expressed that it will be good for Bihar – a sound argument
but unrelated to political alliance. Speculations on the future of the grand
alliance of Bihar have started even as the temporary character of political
teams is well known.
Loss of the JD(U) for the UPA is compensated
by the support of Trinamool Congress--arch enemy of the Congress in West Bengal.
It has also prompted one of its stalwarts, Digvijaya Singh, to call upon “all
progressive forces” to wage a united fight against the BJP and the RSS on the
basis of issues and ideology. He reminded the gathering of nine political
parties “not to convert a political fight into a mere clash of
personalities”.
The TMC support for UPA or Biju Janata Dal’s
support for NDA are surprises which seem to indicate the kind of surprises in
store in 2019 Lok Sabha election. The Left Front, already facing bleak future, seems
compelled to sail with the Congress, however, odd it appears in the background
of the Nuclear Deal issue in which it assumed an ideological posture and earned
the admiration of several non-communists. It has to choose an ally now who is
less incompatible rather than a like-minded colleague.
Mayawati’s BSP initially pledged support to
NDA nominee on the basis of Dalit identity, but changed sides once UPA
announced a candidate with the same identity plus the qualification of being a
woman. It proves conclusively the fickle nature of political decisions. Despite
officially extending support to Congress nominee, there are several within the
Samajwadi Party in favour of the NDA candidate. Their performance will shed
further light on the coherence of the party.
The hopelessly divided AIADMK cannot but
support BJP candidate given the strong alliance of the DMK, its rival, with the
Congress. Freedom of choice for all the factions of the party was closed even
before PM’s call to the Tamil Nadu CM or Amit Shah’s approach to Panneerselvam
faction, or Dinakaran’s personal
calculations of advantage in going with the ruling BJP. While locally strong
parties like the BJD, TDP, TRS and TMC can afford to make their independent
choice, others like the DMK with varying fortunes and many small parties have
to stick to their present partners.
There may be “coalition dharma”, but there is
no “alliance dharma”. The pattern of alliances taking shape for the
presidential poll shows that re-alignments of parties is possible and highly
probable also for 2019 Lok Sabha election. --- INFA
(Copyright, India
News & Feature Alliance)
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