Political Diary
New Delhi, 14 March 2017
TsuNaMo Sweeps
RAM RAJYA BACK IN
UP
By Poonam I Kaushish
Verdict 2017 is a watershed election belonging to the aam aadmi who has shown his profound
wisdom and maturity and voted for single Party rule and stability. A victory
serenading the end of vote-bank politics of the Hindu heartland regional
satraps, their mohalla mentality of
parochialism and naked personal ambition of aggrandisment to usher in a new
dawn of constructive politics of change and rising aspirations. Underscoring as
never before that jo jeeta wohi sikandar!
The Modi-Amit Shah combine have won a historic hard fought mandate
in three of the five States that went to polls and is set to return to power in
Uttar Pradesh after a 14-year gap during which regional Parties Samajwadi and
BSP held sway. Thereby, adding velocity to the Modi wave. Will Ram Rajya be
back is a moot point.
There is no gainsaying these elections have altered the
political complexion of the country and are a game-changer for the BJP,
Congress and UP’s two regional Parties Samajwadi and BSP and have re-defined
their identities and future. A clear thumbs down for the corrupt political
culture of I-me-myself syndrome and caste-communal politics.
With his charisma, oratory skills and by embracing a
hitherto unheard of political strategy, NaMo broke away from convention, moved
past Hindu-Muslim, caste-subcaste-OBC rajniti
and chose development to emerge numero
uno unchallenged thanks to the voter reposing unquestioned faith in him and
trusted him to be the harbinger of change.
Primarily four reasons can be attributed for TsuNaMo. One,
dispensing with the caste-communal cauldron, dynasty and appeasement politics
the Prime Minister touted development to pull the country out of the poverty
morass.
Two, on the face of it Modi’s demonetisation gambit of war
against the rich and corrupt and
pro-poor clicked helping the BJP gain currency beyond its traditional
vote bank of traders and shopkeepers. He successfully weaned the poor and backwards
from their ‘core’ regional Parties like the Samajwadi and BSP. Thereby, setting
the road map for the 2019 elections
Whereby the BJP emerged as the Congress of yore by adding a
mélange of castes and communities to its traditional Brahmin-Bania vote bank. True,
the Party had witnessed a massive expansion in its support base in the 2014 Lok
Sabha elections, but it was anti-incumbency against the UPA that imparted
velocity to the Modi wave.
Three, by not giving a single seat to the Muslims in UP he
got all the Hindus to unite sans caste biases. Four, the Hindutva brigade
trampled a fragmented opposition that had hoped notebandi would chip away Modi's popularity. In retrospective by
not naming a Chief Ministerial candidate in UP, Uttarakhand or Manipur Goa, the
Saffron Sangh believed it could win these elections riding on Brand Modi.
Either which way it validates the recent economic agenda
driven by Modi and
turned these State elections into a referendum on
his record. However,
the BJP’s victory comes at a heavy cost in UP where the Sangh leaders made all
kinds of promises from the sublime to the ludicrous which go against its
liberalisation agenda. So all would not be hunky dory.
The key question is
will NaMo continue with his bold reform agenda, neo economic policies looking
for more ideas that show him as a moral crusader hitting the rich, hitting the
dishonest and putting these criminals in jail. Or opt for the line of least
resistance: maintain status quo ante. That is the key inflection point.
On the other hand Congress and Samajwadi fought as an
alliance with a hope to win on the popularity of Chief Minister Akhilesh who
overnight metamorphosed into a leader in his own right so unlike Pappu who
after over 11 years continues to ride on the pallu of mother Sonia.
As for the Grand old Congress, at 132, it is staring at an
existential crisis with a huge dent in its standing as the principal challenger
to the BJP. Today it has been reduced to a rump with a mere seven seats in UP
down from 27 add to this the ignominy of losing all the Assembly seats in
Rahul’s constituency Amethi.
Worse, it has lost Uttarakhand while Manipur is a close
call. Its victory in Punjab is no thanks to
Rahul but Capt Amarinder Singh all the way aided by anti-incumbency against
Akali’s Badals. Add to it has been reduced to a rump ruling in only seven
States and in one, it is in power as a junior partner.
Undeniably the road to 2019 will become even more difficult
for the Congress and Rahul. Handicapped by a non-performing leader afflicted by
the Hubris syndrome the Congress is caught between a rock and hard place as the
Nehru-Gandhi family is the biggest binding factor for it hence it is stuck with
Rahul. However, time now to dump its jo
hukam culture of power groveling before the “family” as this does not
translate into votes, instead it put the last nail in the Party’s coffin.
Hence, it needs to pull up its socks, do some honest
soul-searching, reinvent rather than introspect, drastically overhaul and behave
as a responsible and effective Opposition Party in order to regain credibility else
BJP wish of a Congress-mukt Bharat
could come true.
Certainly, the infighting within the Samajwadi Parivar has
cost the Party heavily. Having fought with father Mulayam and uncle Shivpal,
Akhilesh had a steep uphill task to retain the State Raj gaddi. Complicating matters, he was fighting on many fronts
besieged by conflicts within his Party. But Akhilesh’s task has become more
difficult, with knives being sharpened by his uncle and step-mother muddied by
its core constituency Muslims deserting him.
The writing is also on the wall for the BSP’s Mayawati. In
UP she has been totally decimated for the time being having won just 17 seats.
Ironically, she was the first to distribute tickets keeping in mind the
religious and caste-based dynamics of the contestants but failed to gauge the
public mood was sick of the usual caste-communal politics.
Cocooned in the narcissism that she can do no wrong,
Mayawati failed to realize that by taking the Dalit vote for granted her poll
promises were seen as personal aggrandizement only directed at herself, not for
the people of the State. Today, bhenji has
to face the bitter truth; reinvent or face extinctional issues.
As for the fledgling AAP it has managed to expand its base
outside Delhi in Punjab
wherein it has emerged as the principle Opposition Party in the Assembly. And
it has given Arvind Kejriwal a larger canvas that he has been looking for every
since his massive win in Delhi.
Certainly, it has put paid to its national ambitions in the immediate future
but in the long run, if he plays his cards right he could join Messers Nitish,
Mamata and Navin in providing an alternative political platform. An opposition
is vital for democracy.
In sum, the 2017 elections were a vote for a new India’s soul
and emerging political philosophy of inclusive development. Said Modi: “Every
moment of our time, everything we do is for the welfare and wellbeing of the
people of India.
We believe in the power of 125 crore Indians.” Will he give politics a new
direction? Usher in an era of politics
of performance? Time alone will bear this out. ----- INFA
(Copyright,
India News and Feature Alliance)
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