Political Diary

New Delhi, 17 April, 2017

Changing Rules Of Game

PAK, IT TAKES TWO TO TANGO!

By Poonam I Kaushish

Neighbour or enemy? Both. Indeed, India-Pakistan relations are like being on a roller coaster ride. All depends on which way the political wind is blowing, north or South. Presently, it’s bellicose and defiant, short of eyeball confrontation with both New Delhi and Islamabad standing there ground: Don’t mess with us.

The latest flashpoint is 46-year old ex-Indian navy officer-turned-businessman in Iran Kulbhushan Jadhav’s arrest in Baluchistan by Pakistan’s intelligence agency for “espionage and sabotage activities” who was awarded death sentence by a Pak military court.

Worse, a defiant Islamabad has refused the Indian High Commission consular access to meet Jadhav, its 14 attempt since last year, as it is clueless about his location or condition, notwithstanding international law which makes access mandatory.  

Adding to the stand-off Army Chief Gen Bajwa has made plain there would be “no compromise’. Alongside the Lahore Bar Council has banned lawyers from representing the ex-navy officer. New Delhi is all set to appeal the order and is studying the Pakistani Army Act

Predictably, in one fell stroke New Delhi-Islamabad relations have gone further south having nose dived after Pakistan’s Uri attack. Presently South Block is evaluating its options and Parliament has warned Islamabad of consequences of Jadhav’s issue on bilateral ties.

All eyes are now on Prime Minister Modi who has still to speak out his mind. Given that since 2014 New Delhi’s response has always had a fine-tuned, out-of-the-box, visible in-your-face surprise element. Whereby, NaMo has dispensed with his predecessors, including Vajpayee, policy of Pakistan’s international isolation following every major terrorists attack, instead gone steps ahead and simultaneously pursued threats and retaliatory measures against Pakistan.

Clearly, since the surgical strike September last there has been a marked a huge strategic and tactical shift in policy vis-à-vis Pakistan, accentuating an-eye-for-an-eye and tooth-for-a tooth plot, bluntly, it takes two to play hard ball! With NaMo being a past master at playing to the domestic audience he panders to Indians rising aspirations and pride. An intoxicating mix of muscular diplomacy and ruthlessness masked in velvet gloves.

Undeniably, Modi seems to be pursuing a ‘strategy of deterrence by punishment’, which implies that any time Pakistan provokes, be prepared to exact a cost. The idea here is that if Pakistan realizes that its misadventure against India has a cost involved then it might be deterred.

In this heady diplomatic cocktail there is little scope for old fashioned moderation. Frankly, NaMo has changed the rules of the game and is re-writing the rules of India’s Pakistan policy?

Questionably, does Pakistan have the appropriate diplomacy to counter Modi’s drive for Indian supremacy in the region? And do the present assertive trends of Indian foreign policy portend the likelihood of an aggressive outcome during Modi’s tenure?

The Prime Minister has talked openly about Pakistan’s vulnerabilities in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Baluchistan; exposed Pakistan’s misdeeds in Pak-occupied- Kashmir, including Gilgit-Baltistan; and suggested the possibility of relooking at Indus-Water sharing treaty, hitherto considered unimaginable. Succinctly, debunked the two-steps-forward-one-step-back approach coupled with backchannel talks which have made India appear timid, confused and soft.

This is not to suggest NaMo did not try, he did by inviting his counterpart Nawaz Sharif for his swearing-in ceremony in May 2014 and his biggest peace gambit to stop-over at Lahore to wish Sharief December 2015 on his return journey to Delhi from Kabul.

True, some feel NaMo is playing to the gallery and a macho-muscular foreign policy is not going to get New Delhi far, yet neither has restraint and kid glove treatment helped.  In fact, many forget or overlook that the fundamentals of India’s Pakistan policy has changed.

Underscoring this paradigm shift in its Pak policy, New Delhi made plain that past precedents were not binding on it in its dealing with recalcitrant Islamabad and its terrorists’ army. Modi’s success internationally can be gauged by the fact that many Muslim countries have condemned Islamabad’s handling of Jadhav’s case.

Indeed the ex-Indian officer’s death sentence gambit by Pakistan is fraught with dangerous portends. Ties are fast hitting rock bottom as the climate of suspicion developed over the years grows thicker thanks to the “trust deficit” between the two countries. And as long as this deficit is there, the two countries will continue to engage in shadow-boxing, the intensity of which may vary from time to time.

What next? New Delhi new assertiveness would need all the wisdom and restraint to ensure that it remains in control of the Indo-Pak script.  One way is to adopt the Israeli Defence Forces strategy in which the aim is to cause the opponent more damage (quantitatively and qualitatively) than the opponent caused Israel in the same time span. The fear of punitive retaliation would, it was hoped, delay the next conflict and restrain the enemy's ambitions.

Pakistan has got caught between a rock and hard place. The military holds the strings with a puppet Prime Minister. The nation psyche is military fed on a staple anti-India tirade since 1947. Make no mistake when it comes to India the army, ISI, politicians and civil society beyond its Lollywood and Coke studio hi society have the same view.

Certainly, in this zero sum game the muscle-flexing, war rhetoric and one-upmanship will continue till there the core issue of Kashmir is resolved.  No one wants war, far from it, but at the same time Raisina Hill has to make sure Pak-sponsored terrorism and its ISI masters are given a befitting reply.

The long-term prospects of Pakistan-India relations will be determined to a large extent by India’s strategic goals and objectives in the context of the evolving regional and global security environment. The other part of the equation would be Pakistan’s policy goals and its handling of this critical relationship.

There is definitely a strategic imperative of peace between Pakistan and India because of their status as de facto nuclear powers and the need for them to focus their energies and resources on the gigantic task of economic development necessitated by widespread poverty.

Unfortunately, however, these factors alone will not be able to usher in an era of durable peace and friendship between the two countries. In all likelihood, Pakistan-India relations will continue to suffer from recurrent periods of tensions and strains because of India’s hegemonic designs in South Asia and outstanding disputes, especially the Kashmir dispute.

Therefore, genuine friendship between the two countries would remain elusive in the foreseeable future. The best that can be hoped for is the maintenance of peace between them and normal good neighbourly relations marked by low level of tensions and cooperation in various fields on a mutually beneficial basis.

Thus, it is too early to fathom what will be the future of Pakistan-India relations during BJP’s Government? All one can be sure of is that Modi has the wisdom to recognize the threat, the will to turn it back as he knows only too well staying ahead is the name of the game. His message: Let not any one kick India around with tall talk of bleeding India with a thousand cuts! Remember, it takes two to tango. ------ INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)