Economic
Highlights
New
Delhi, 10 April, 2017
UP’s Farm Loan Waiver
DOUBLE-EDGED POLITICAL SWORD
By Shivaji Sarkar
Indian farmers are
in distress. Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath’s Rs 36,359 crore farm
loan waiver is the beginning of a new thought process. It can neither be
dismissed as a mere scoring of political point nor bad economics as many
bankers and critics are saying. It is the beginning of a new debate to put the
farm sector at the centre of the new Indian economy. The loan waiver is likely
to cause a rethink on the World Bank-IMF slur on farm subsidy.
The so-called 1991
“economic reform” and the 1995 WTO rules of the Agreement on Agriculture
targeted ending farm subsidies. It caused enormous misery for the farm sector
and abated innumerable suicides. The National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB) says
256,913 farmers committed suicide between 1995 and 2011.
Yogi’s and the BJP’s
UP election “Sankalp Patra”
(manifesto) would possibly reorient the economy and the bad word ‘subsidy’ has
to be integrated into the economic theory for the growth of the farm sector,
rural sector, elimination of poverty and what is often touted as “inclusive
growth”.
The distress of
the rural and farm sector is not restricted to UP alone. It is obvious from
Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis’s statement that he is studying
the UP model to waive off Rs 30,000 crore loans of the farmers in his State. Even the new Congress government in Punjab is trying to emulate the UP model. Congress Vice President
Rahul Gandhi made a remarkable statement. He tweeted: “A partial relief for UP
farmers but a step in the right direction. Congress has always supported loan
waivers for farmers in distress.” Does that show a political consensus? Is it
repentance for 1991 Manmohanomics?
The recent agitation
by Tamil Nadu farmers only stresses that distress is widespread. In an order on April
4, the day Yogi announced his waiver, the Madras High Court has directed the TN
government to expand its farm loan waiver scheme to include farmers who own
more than five acres. Andhra, Telangana and other States may follow suit.
At the human level, the
non-sustainability of the current agricultural system was symbolised in the
suicide by Lee Kyung Hae, a Korean farmer, who took his life at the barricades
of the peoples protest against the fifth ministerial meeting at WTO
headquarters in Geneva
on September 10, 2003. As he stabbed himself, he carried a banner stating “WTO
kills farmers.” Lee’s suicide was symbolic of the suicides of thousands of
farmers.
UP’s
decision would give relief to 94 lakh farmers owing up to Rs 1 lakh each to
banks. It would also benefit seven lakh farmers who had defaulted in repaying.
This amounts to Rs 5630 crore. Many of these farmers were being harassed by the
banks. There
are about 2.15 crore small farmers with holdings of less than two hectares in the
State, according to UP Minister Siddharth Nath Singh.
As much as 67 per cent
of India's
farmland is held by the marginal farmers with holdings below one hectare,
against less than 1 per cent in large holdings of 10 hectares and above, the
latest Agriculture Census shows. The average size of the holding has been
estimated as 1.15 hectare. There is a steady decline in trend in size of these
holdings denotes various Agriculture Censuses since 1970-71.
There is a financial fall-out. The waiver is
to be funded by the State government without a direct central aid. The loan
waiver increases the debt to GDP ratio for the UP by nearly 3 percentage
points, taking it to about 6 per cent of the State GDP. Officially, UP is
stated to be bankrupt though its revenue is around Rs 3.40 lakh crore. Would
that lead to an undesirable higher taxation, is the big question?
This is likely to happen to many States which
are reeling from successive droughts and similar loan waivers will lead to State
fiscal deficits going out of whack. The overall fiscal deficit of the Centre
plus States may increase to about Rs 3 lakh crore. The UP government says that
it might launch a farm waiver bond for such refinancing. The bonds, however,
need guarantee and the Centre may ultimately have to be the guarantor.
At the same time, the banks apprehend that
such waivers might see a spurt in their NPAs as even those who have been making
regular repayments would stop paying their dues hoping for another waiver. In
UP, banks have an exposure of Rs 86,241 crore to small farmers with an average
loan of Rs 1.34 lakh each. The exercise also entails enormous clerical job and in
all probability may add to the cost of the banks.
So despite previous history of loan-waivers by
many governments in the past, even at the Centre, this should not become the
pattern. The nation has to start rethinking. From the point of view of farmers,
they are the worst sufferers. Farm input costs have gone up but not the prices.
It is a double-edged political sword. If prices of crops are increased it shall
have a cascading effect on the economy. As costs rises, credit dries up. Farm
debts goes out of control. Finally, it leads to political upheaval.
It goes without saying that the Narendra Modi
government wants a farm-centric economy. The NITI Ayog says till 2022, the
promised rise in income of farmers may not happen. But it cannot be delayed
too. Modi has thus to initiate a discussion on looking at farm-economy in a new
manner. Should loans be replaced by some other mechanism? Should that be called
subsidy or subsistence? The direct benefit transfer (DBT) has an administrative
cost. Subsidies despite problems benefit many others. It is a complex issue and
needs thorough discussion.
Indian farmers, particularly those who are
into cash crops, have complicated problems. The corporate and MNC ingress into
farm sector has aggravated it. A long-term solution to the farmers’ financing
and marketing is needed. Across the political spectrum this is the consensus.
Modi has this advantage. If he can initiate a process of discussion in
Parliament and in the society, a possible path may be found out.
Undoubtedly, the farmers need support and the
society has to evolve a sustainable method. It should keep prices and wages in
check and also spur economic growth. Benevolent farm policy is accepted as the
best way to spur demand and industrial growth. Uttar Pradesh has made a
beginning. India
has to make the move to turn the golden leaf, make or break policies, churn the
world and yes, WTO.—INFA
(Copyright,
India News and Feature Alliance)
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