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Open Forum
New Delhi, 9 February 2017
Shiv Sena-BJP Split
POLLS TURN FRIENDS INTO
FOES
By Nikhil Gajendragadkar
Maharashtra is in election mode and mood. Two
phases to civic bodies are over and now the big test is near. Five municipal
corporations will go to the polls in less than two weeks. Mumbai, Thane, Pune,
Nashik and Nagpur
cities are already witnessing heightened political activity. The centre of
attraction will be election of Mumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC).
This time around elections to these civic bodies are more
interesting because the Shiv Sena has severed ties with its long time ally the
BJP. On 26th January in a well-attended public meeting Sena chief
Uddhav Thackeray announced the decision to call off its alliance. He also said
that his party did ‘rot’ for 25 years in the alliance, making the BJP see red. Interestingly,
the Shiv Sena has not pulled out of the coalition government in the State.
Though the timing of Thackeray’s announcement surprised
many, the decision itself did not shock political circle or supporters of the
two parties. This was bound to happen. For many months, Uddhav Thackeray has been
criticising the BJP, both in the State as well as Centre. He was in fact more
hostile towards Prime Minister Narendra Modi after the ‘demonetisation’ scheme or
‘note bandi’ as is popularly known.
Thackeray blamed Modi for the hardship that the common people were forced to go
through. He and his ministers in the State government complained about not
getting enough freedom to carryout work. Further, they also grumbled about how
some elements (reference to BJP ministers and perhaps even Chief Minister Devendra
Fadnavis) were blocking their developmental activities.
Even before elections for Zilla Panchayats and Municipal
Corporations were declared, talk of ‘going alone’ was getting louder among
workers of both parties in Pune and Mumbai. After the declaration of dates for the
polls, few rounds of talks were held between the two parties on seat sharing. But
these collapsed as both sides remained adamant on their respective demands. According
to the BJP leadership, the talks didn’t fail on the grounds of seat sharing but
on the point of ‘transparency’ in governance.
In first two phases of civic bodies’ election-- which were
held in predominantly rural and semi- rural area of Maharashtra—the BJP made
good gains and emerged as the front runner as far as number of chairmanships it
won. Emboldened by this breakthrough, the mood in the State unit of the party for
going alone in major Municipal Corporations got strengthened further. But as it
has an alliance with the Shiv Sena it chose to refrain from going public. And,
it was the seat sharing talks which provided the opportunity they were looking
for.
Ironically, Thackeray’s announcement came as blessing in
disguise for the BJP. Soon after, Fadnavis retorted saying, ‘they’ (Shiv Sena)
will be shown their “Aukaat” (Hindi
word, meaning ‘showing their place’). This, set guns ablaze from both sides. The
Sena is criticising Modi directly through their Marathi daily mouthpiece ‘Saamana’.
The rift was evident in an event held last month in Mumbai, where Modi had gone
to lay the foundation stone for a proposed Shivaji Memorial to be built in the
sea near Mumbai. First Thackeray was not invited. Then somehow he got a place
on the dais. When Modi and Uddhav came face to face, Modi did not even smile,
nor did he mention him in his speech.
However, the paradox is that both the parties need each
other. The Sena needs the support of BJP to run the BMC, and the BJP needs the Sena
legislators to keep afloat the Fadnavis government in the State.
But now the battle lines are drawn. Both the allies will
confront each other. It goes without saying that the fight will be intense in
Mumbai. The Congress and Nationalist Congress Party are other players but as of
now they are not a major force to reckon with. The Sena’s decision to end
alliance with BJP is an attempt to regain its primacy in State politics. And,
the Mumbai Municipal Corporation is not only its stronghold but its survival
depends upon it. In the alliance the Sena would have had to forego some seats
to the BJP. That would pose a danger of losing out some key areas of the
metropolis and shrinking of its base.
While the Sena has tried to expand its base in the State,
its claim to be a powerful party has failed to make inroads in many parts of Maharashtra. It is now in power in Aurangabad Municipal
Corporation, but that is an exception. Alliance
with the BJP helped both parties to emerge as an alternative to the Congress. Traditionally,
Pune district was either with the Congress or later Sharad Pawar-led NCP, but
that too has changed with last 2014 Lok Sabha elections. Now BJP has gained an
upper hand in Pune city.
As is known, the Shiv Sena’s main agenda for long has been ‘Marathi
Manoos’ (Marathi person), which it later turned to ‘Hindutva’. And, thus BJP’s Hindu centric policies complemented the
Sena. But afterwards, the BJP veered round a larger development-oriented
programme. This led to Sena’s anti-migrant stance losing sheen and the votes
drifting towards the BJP, as seen more prominently in Mumbai -- a cosmopolitan
metro. Recall, in 2014 Assembly elections were held along with Lok Sabha polls.
Then too, the Shiv Sena chose to contest alone. But in that contest the BJP
emerged as the single largest party and Sena lost much ground in the State.
Now Mumbai is the only last bastion of the Shiv Sena. It
needs to reinvent itself as a regional party with a distinct agenda. Perhaps,
it may have realised that in the changing social scenario, an anti-migrant
policy will not help. In addition, Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena
(MNS) also uses Marathi and anti-migrant chant. Thus, the big question before
the Shiv Sena is how to protect its Marathi vote base and garner non-Marathi,
non Hindu votes.
So far, it has avoided the traditional rhetoric against
migrants and protecting Marathi Manoos.
The party is now focusing on the development it has brought to Mumbai, such as coastal
roads, drinking water projects etc. Uddhav has taken up the subject of
transparency too, as the Economic Survey-tabled in Parliament before the Union Budget
noted that the BMC has the ‘most transparent governance’.
Apparently, some surveys undertaken in late December or
early January, suggest that Shiv Sena will retain power in BMC this time too. And
that may be one reason why the Sena took the bold decision to cut ties with
BJP. On the other hand, the BJP looks more confident because of its recent success
in civic polls and people’s backing to Modi, post-demonetisation.
The BMC election is thus crucial for both. If Shiv Sena
manages to win it this time too, then BJP will be forced to tow its line and need
to accept it as ‘big brother.’ But if the BJP wins the polls, then the Sena
will find it very difficult to keep its foothold in the State. Which way the
wind will blow, will be worth a watch, even in this season of State Assemblies
going to the Polls. --- INFA
(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)
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