Round The World

New Delhi, 24 November 2016

INDO-US Ties

TRUMP-MODI CONNECT?

By Dhurjati Mukherjee

The anti-Trump protests after his surprise victory as the 45^th US President reveal a sense of frustration and fear that a section of the Americans would be going through. His victory symbolises the return of rightist forces, something similar to the 2014 elections in India, wherein like Trump, Modi succeeded in upsetting liberals and pseudo secularists. Clearly, a  segment of the American society doesn’t like Trump’s election policies and promises, with glimpses of secessionist sentiments surfacing in California calling for Calexit, an analogy with Brexit.  

While New Delhi will not read much into the protests, it is important what kind of rapport Trump will have with Modi. His predecessor Obama and Modi seemed to have connected well. A helpful President is essential for India, specially now when the country has made its priorities clear by aligning with the US in various sectors. Not just IT, trade and commerce, even in the military domain, India and the US have emerged strong allies in the Asian sub-continent. The successive regimes of George Bush and Barack Obama have pushed forward the relationship culminating in the recent signing of the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA).

The military- to- military ties have expanded in the field of exercises. The Malabar series of naval exercises has not only grown more complex but expanded to include Japan. The Yudh Abhyas series between armies has also grown. Moreover, Modi’s stress on ‘Make in India’ has found US companies like Boeing and Lockheed Martin having offered to transfer production line for the Super Hornet F/A 18 and the F-17 Block 70 Fighting Falcon wholesale to India, should Delhi choose one of the aircraft for the IAF’s requirement. 

Will the strong bond established by Obama and Modi continue in the political and economic realm? It needs to be remembered that Trump has been harping on slogans such as ‘America First’ ‘Make America Great Again’ and has spoken quite clearly against outsourcing of jobs and also on free trade.

Whether the information technology sector would be affected remains to be seen as experts are divided on the issue. But there is an overwhelming opinion that the Indian IT sector may suffer as resentment has been building up against Indian employees in the US. However, it may be mentioned here that Trump in his victory speech did a volte face from his poll rhetoric and chose to cast himself as a unifier.

The United States’ blue collar workers loved Trump’s stance on trade, specially his assailing the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) as a disaster and “one of the worst things that ever happened” (in the US). Proponents of free trade argued that the President elect’s policy was wrong and that trade with developing nations brings benefits to the US. They also pointed out that their economy benefitted from goods being sourced from low-cost countries where wage levels were also low. The other section felt that the victory indicated a populist insurrection drawing middle class and blue collar recruits who lament that they have been left behind by globalisation with manufacturing and services having deserted their Western homes. 

Being an entrepreneur himself, it is expected that Trump will understand the needs of business and not stand in the way of multinational corporations accessing global talent. Moreover, it is a well-known fact that Americans are being overtaken by Indians and Chinese who have migrated to the US. Thus reports indicate that as Trump is somewhat convinced about parts of ‘Obamacare’, after meeting Obama, it should not be difficult to make him understand about certain categories of immigrants, specially from India and other countries. 

Another important area of concern is Trump’s views on environmental regulations which he may oppose as these obstruct job growth. Though America has already ratified the Paris climate agreement, there are indications that the US under him may pull out of it or ignore the binding regulations.

It is also not known what exactly will be Trump’s policy on various issues and their affect on the Indian economy. Moreover, his lack of interest is pivot to Asia and could bother India due to the absence of a strong US presence in East and Southeast Asia. However, US Ambassador, Richard Verma, was very positive and stated that bipartisanship support to Indo-US relations will continue as before. “The ties that bind our two democratic countries are built on our shared democratic values and go beyond the friendship of the American President and the Indian Prime Minister”, he observed.   

Trump’s line on Islamic terror and China, perhaps opens up the possibilities of New Delhi getting closer to the US. This opportunity has to be seized to highlight cross border terrorism and build pressure against Islamic fundamentalists and Pakistan. But Trump’s position on many key foreign policy issues is unclear, even contradictory. For example, his own call for pushing nuclear disarmament is contradicted by his line on strengthening US’s nuclear arsenal. 

India derives the idea of a constitutional republic from America though it has borrowed many of its forms of parliamentary democracy from Britain. The bipartisan support for India among American politicians vindicates the affinity between the two nations. Thus the idea of a united America has to be seen positively by us as it is conjoined in many ways with the idea of a unified India.  

It is important to mention here that though sections of Hindu right wing, who hate the idea of India, should feel energized by some of Trump’s observations, should also realize that the backlash against immigrants, when it comes, will not be confined to Muslims alone. However, latest reports indicate that the US President elect declaring that as many as three million migrants could be removed after he takes office.

Lately, the selection of Reince Priebus, the chairman of the Republican National Committee, as chief of staff, is expected to compromise on issues like taxes, immigration, trade, health care and environment. This is enough indication that Trump may be flexible about his views. Thus, there is, no reason to lose faith as an anti-Indian stand for an American head appears quite remote at this stage.

One may recall that Obama began his term on a different note towards India. It took concerted efforts by Manmohan Singh and Narendra Modi to get him to focus on India. President Trump should be encouraged at the very beginning to think that India is a reliable partner on all fronts and that the relationship between the two countries should be developed further. Will he be wooed? ---INFA     

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)