Economic
Highlights
New Delhi,
3 October 2016
Elusive
MFN Status
PAK
LOSES, NOT INDIA
By
Shivaji Sarkar
The
Indian sub-continent was an integrated market till 1947. Partition and
consequent irresponsible Pakistani behaviour has led to its virtual isolation.
Sabre-rattling Pakistan
is imposing heavy penalties on its population as their miseries are increasing,
has rightly noted Indian Prime Minister Modi. The surgical strike in
Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir should make Islamabad
rethink and correct its stand on bilateral ties.
The
distrust and jingoist Pakistan
has led to a thaw in easing relations. There is, however, a growing consensus
among Pakistani academicians and economic historians that the volume of trade
with India
should increase.
Even
as India is considering
withdrawing the most-favoured nation (MFN) to Pakistan, trade is growing. India had granted MFN in 1996 but Pakistan hasn’t
still. Even without the MFN status to India,
exports to Pakistan
have risen from $287 million in 2003-04 to $2.17 billion in 2015-16. Imports to
India
have risen from $58 million to $441 million.
The
balance of trade during the past 12 years has remained favourable to India,
according to a study done by the Indian Council for Research on International
Economic Relations (ICRIER). It estimates an increase in India’s trade
potential to $11 billion - exports $ 7.9 billion and imports to $ 3 billion - in
the next few years.
The Institute of Public Policy,
Beaconhouse National University, US in a major study which included Shahid
Kardar, Governor of State Bank of Pakistan, noted in 2012, that
India’s exports to Pakistan in the next few years will grow to $6.3 bn.
Pakistan’s exports to India in the medium-term are projected to increase to
$1.3bn.
Kardar
states: “Our analysis
shows that India has
ostensibly opened up its trade regime for products from Pakistan
through a reduction in the number of items on its sensitive list”. However, he
adds that the concession is less liberal than it appears. Similarly, Ishrat
Hussain, Director of Institute of Business Administration, Karachi, says that the business community on both
sides of the border appear convinced that trade liberalisation would be in
their mutual interest. He says a more private sector led problem solving has a
better chance of avoiding some of the “pitfalls”.
Trade liberalisation with the
granting of MFN status to India, the implementation of tariff reductions under South
Asian Free Trade Agreement (SAFTA) and the induction of structural reforms in
Pakistan is projected to push up its GDP in the medium-term by a ‘moderately
favourable’ 1.5 per cent to a healthy four per cent, says Kardar. India has reduced more sharply its sensitive
list for Bangladesh and
signed an FTA with Sri Lanka.
Pakistan has also been found discriminating in
allowing Indian exports to Afghanistan.
While it allows the Afghan trucks to carry its exports to Indian borders, Islamabad does not allow
them to carry back Indian goods. Afghanistan has repeatedly
protested this as it causes escalation of prices.
Irrational and unstable Pakistani
policies have blocked easing of relations in the region. Pakistani academicians
say that it is in the mutual interest of the two countries to strive for an
enduring uninterruptible long-term relationship. They also
note that on the eve of 2014 Indian elections, Pakistan had decided to grant MFN
status after the formation of the new government. However, it put off the
decision despite favourable gestures from Prime Minister Modi.
The
Federation of Pakistani Chamber of Commerce and (FPCCI) and regional chambers
feel that the fears being raised by certain circles in the country on the MFN
status to India
is not based on facts. It feels that despite some hitches in the beginning Pakistan is to
gain more.
Sectors
such as textile and automobile industry, leather manufacturers, garment
manufacturers, pharmaceutical manufacturers will be involved in the
concessionary tariff. “Pakistans's
industry will squeeze if India
decides to withdraw the status. Diplomatically it will be a good step to
isolate Pakistan”,
international trade expert with Indian Institute of Foreign Trade (IIFT)
Rakesh Mohan Joshi said.
Exporters body,
Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO) said that India mainly
exports inputs to Pakistani industry such as basic chemicals and cotton, which
is vital for their industry. “Their industry will face issues if India stops
these exports. Their cost of manufacturing will go up”, FIEO Director General
Ajay Sahai says.
Nothing prevents India to
withdraw the MFN status. As per World Trade Organisation, since Pakistan has not accorded the MFN status, it can
be withdrawn by India.
Pakistan, however, wants to make it an
issue. Speaking at a recent conference organized by the ICRIER, Pakistan’s High Commissioner to India, Abdul Basit, said that extending MFN
status to India would
severely harm Pakistan’s
local economy. Basit argued that growing bilateral trade has hardened India’s stance on the issue of Kashmir.
Basit’s statement not only offers an insight into who is actually running the
country, it shows an inability to prioritize.
Pakistan’s agriculture and automotive
sectors have often lobbied against MFN status, arguing that these are still too
young to compete with the onslaught of cheaper Indian products. The truth is
that Pakistan’s
industries will never be able to compete if the government continues to protect
them with high tariffs and other non-tariff measures. Pakistan imports 57 per cent of its auto-related
raw materials from Japan,
contributing to large import bills. A continually rising cost of production
ensures Pakistan
will never attain economies of scale, and eternally nascent industries continue
to enjoy protection at the expense of consumer welfare.
However, Pakistan’s current stance has significance
beyond the MFN status, domestic interests, or bilateral trade. For years Pakistan insisted
on negotiating trade with non-trade issues. As a consequence, talks have
remained intermittent, largely governed by the unresolved political animosity between
the two countries.
Pakistan’s move to bring back the Kashmir
issue only ensures that India
will be unyielding to any firm commitment and economic cooperation. Though
economic and political issues cannot be mutually exclusive, holding one issue
hostage for another is counterproductive.
The trade between the two countries
may marginally benefit India,
but an end to it would cause severe difficulties for Pakistan. The losses that India would
suffer, it can make it up with alternate markets in the region. ---INFA
(Copyright, India
News and Feature Alliance)
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