Political Diary
New Delhi, 30 August 2016
Changing Rules Of
Game
IT TAKES TWO TO
TANGO
By Poonam I Kaushish
“Did the children go to the Army
camp to buy toffees? Did the 15-year-old boy go to fetch milk when he attacked
a police station? What is the Government’s fault in
that?” Quivered an angry Mehbooba Mufti as continuous stone-pelting
entered its 55th day in Kashmir
valley with 67 people deaths since the killing of Hizbul Mujahedeen poster boy
Burhan Wani late July.
In one fell stroke, the Chief Minister adroitly put the onus
on “five per cent protestors”, slamming Pakistan for constantly fomenting trouble
even as she called for resolution of the problem through dialogue and reconciliation.
However, even as the Centre and State Government extended themselves to restore
peace in the Valley, how to deal with Pakistan weighed heavy. More so
after Islamabad anointed 22 MPs to raise the Kashmir dispute in the UN General Assembly session in
September.
Citing enough is enough over Islamabad
meddling, Prime Minister Modi made a dramatic change in India’s Pakistan policy. In his
Independence Day address to the nation he evoked Baluchistan and asking Islamabad to “vacate its
illegal occupation of Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (PoK)”. His aggressive message
was blunt: You incite terror in Kashmir I will expose your atrocities in Baluchistan. Thereby, signaling his move to
internationalise the issue.
Undoubtedly, Modi’s salvo at Pakistan
was driven by two main motivations: One, to deflect pressure on his Government vis-à-vis strife-torn Kashmir.
Pakistan has long accused India of fueling terrorism in Baluchistan,
its largest province, and of supporting its independence movement. Islamabad painted India
as the aggressor in 2009, when the Sharm el-Sheikh joint statement by the two
countries referred to State-sponsored terrorism in Baluchistan, effectively
causing India
to admit to such.
Two, project India
as a regional hegemony capable of denying China
access to economic trade routes through PoK in the ambitious $45 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor that will give Beijing access to the Arabian Sea through the port of Gwadar. Plainly, without India’s
support, CPEC will remain a pipe-dream.
Specially against the backdrop of Pakistan
and China successfully
presenting a united front against India in the UN. And Islamabad not
only failing to reciprocate the Prime Minister’s overtures in the last two
years, but worse, Nawaz Sharif asserting, “We are waiting for the day when
Kashmir becomes a part of Pakistan.”
Even as Pakistan
angrily retorted at India
for “crossing the red line”, New Delhi continues
to play hard ball by underscoring any dialogue would only be on cross border
terrorism and return of PoK and certainly not on Islamabad’s
pet stale wail: Core issue of Kashmir.
Questionably, not a few wonder about what strategic reward,
if any, India
hopes to gain by raising the geo-political stakes. Not a few feel by raising Baluchistan, India
has given Pakistan
further ammunition. Many however see it as of tactical utility.
Baluchistan holds vast quantities of Pakistan’s natural resources and provides access
to the Arabian Sea through Gwadar
Port. Any further unrest
in the area could completely destabilize Pakistan and its geo-political
position.
As matter stands today, a deep chill has set in Indo-Pak
ties. Deep mistrust and lack of confidence is apparent. Yet the two have not rejected further
dialogue. Even when it is no more than a repetition of known positions. Islamabad has to match
its words with deeds.
However, what is worrisome for Islamabad
is that militancy and terrorist strikes are not providing any tangible results,
other than providing cover to push jihadists into India before winter which makes
intrusion difficult. Moreover, insecure Pakistan
faces twin dilemmas of international marginalization due its political and
economic instability and India’s
political stability and growing economy.
For Pakistani fed on the belief, that ‘accepting the status quo with India is defeat’,
has resulted in a perceived ideological perspective that it has to be at war to
stand up and be counted. This is forcing the Pakistani army to take calculated
military risks against the back drop of its nuclear capability as a
manifestation of its continued struggle which it must continue to provoke India.
Additionally, due to it being a failed State a fundamentally
dissatisfied Establishment seeks to increase its prestige through spread of its
ideology and religion in pursuit of its revisionist policies. Furthermore, India’s “suspension” of the dialogue process has
reduced Pakistan’s
incentive to keep the peace.
Moreover, there is nothing concrete to suggest that Islamabad is ready to address New Delhi’s ‘core’ concerns on terrorism as
it refuses to give up its confrontational mindset of waging a “thousand wars”.
Nor is there any indication that Pakistan
has changed its antagonistic approach to India
and neither does it share India's
desire for friendly relations.
On its part, New Delhi’s
decision not to hold talks underlines its conviction that the military cost
will soon become too high for Pakistan.
As the recent incidents show, the Government and its security agencies need to
remain ever vigilant, be one step ahead of Pakistan, its jihadis and act
promptly vis-à-vis terror attacks and
cross-border terrorism. India
should refuse to be bullied and stop all trade and cultural exchanges with Pakistan till
it mends its ways.
At the same time, notwithstanding the threat of a nuclear
conflagration the neighbours know damn well it is an empty threat as both
cannot afford an eyeball N-war. Resulting in an ‘armed peace’. Tough responses
to provocations and clear red zones are the best guarantee of nuclear peace in
the sub-Continent.
Clearly, with Modi showing Pakistan
the mirror of its own internal vulnerabilities, he has made plain India will no longer allow the Kashmir discourse
to continue on Pakistan’s
terms. For too long, New Delhi has been on the
defensive trying to prove its liberal democratic credentials as if the Indian State
is the only guilty party in the Kashmir
dispute.
Having
upped the ante and escalated tensions, Modi has made plain: Cross the red line
and pay for it. Pakistan
needs to understand that India’s
patience is wearing thin. If it wants friendly relations with India, it
should abandon its adventurism on the borders, come to senses, match its words
with deeds and engage diplomatically.
By now Pakistan
should know that infiltrating and attacking Indian bases would not take it far
in its bid to be on a par with India.
It also underestimates, as it has always done, India’s ability to withstand such
pressures and, if necessary, retaliate with greater force.
Modi realizes only to well that in today’s geo-strategic
political reality pragmatism dictate real politic. There are no short cuts. New Delhi needs an all-encompassing and multi-pronged
strategy to deal with Islamabad
even as it wants durable peace though this alone cannot guarantee
non-escalation.
It remains to be seen if the Prime Minister can sustain his
‘zero tolerance to provocations’ policy as it navigates its already tricky ties
with its nuclear-powered neighbour. Tough responses to provocations and clear
red zones are the best guarantee of nuclear peace in the sub-Continent. By
changing the rules of the game, Modi has spelt out: It takes two to tango. Else
Pakistan
will face the harsh reality of continuing to reap a pungent harvest! ---- INFA
(Copyright,
India News and Feature Alliance)
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