Economic Highlights

New Delhi, 22 August, 2016

Chinese $46 b Pak Corridor

INDIA MUST ACT DEFTLY TO STALL IT

By Shivaji Sarkar

Khunjerab means “Valley of Blood,” which locals, on the northern border of Pakistan-occupied Kashmir in Gilgit-Baltistan, Hunza-Nagar areas that connect Kashgar in the southwest border of the Xinjiang region of China, attribute to the bandits who once preyed on caravans on what used to be one of the main crossing points on the Silk Road. It is a high mountain pass in the Karakoram Mountains and is indeed becoming a bloody economic-strategic problem for the Indian sub-continent.

The Pentagon too sees this as an emergence of a new Sino-Pak strategy to destabilize the region. China aims at gradually becoming a dominant force to subjugate, if not subvert the economies of the region. The bilateral trade has reached around $18.9 billion that indicates the growing economic partnership between the two countries. Beijing also proposes to invest $46 billion in port, Khunjerab-Rawalpindi highway, telecom, energy, infrastructure and industry as part of the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). This sum would be a good $15 billion more than the US has pumped into Pakistan since 2002.

The corridor aims at expanding Chinese influence in the region by allowing access to western markets through the Gwadar port, being set up in the trouble-torn, poverty-stricken region of Balochistan. The Balochs are opposed to it and see at as a tool for increasing suppression and changing demography of this fragile region. It is said that the strategy is devised by China on the model of Tibetan autonomous region.

But China doesn’t want to admit it, though it is the largest investor in Pakistan and India is aware of the problem. The government in Beijing is encouraging its companies to invest in Pakistan, is all what Chinese Ambassador to Pakistan Sun Weidong says. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Independence Day speech virtually referred to this reality when he mentioned about Pakistan-occupied Kashmir and Balochistan. India has not endorsed CPEC. China during its talks with Indian leaders has expressed its concern a number of times.

In reality, the geo-strategic mistakes committed by the first Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru, in allowing Pakistani occupation in parts of Jammu and Kashmir and later, in 1962, Aksai Chin to China, is costing heavily for India. Strategists view these as grave mistakes that have allowed Sino-Pak axis to build up. Had there been a vision, India should not have remained silent on Aksai Chin for such a long time. It is approximately 35,241 sq km in size and is part of Ladakh district of J&K. The borders are tranquil but the region remains troubled with several intrusions and threats to the Indian population.

India is also trying to counter balance it by developing Chabahar port in Iran. It helps establish contact with Iran, Afghanistan and other Central Asian countries and takes strategically India to an area where it can create psychic pressure on Pakistan.

Former Indian ambassador, Phunchok Stobdan, alleged that China and Pakistan intended to develop the corridor not just for its economic benefits, but also is motivated by the “strategic intent of besieging India”. Former Indian National Security Advisor MK Narayanan in May 2016 stated “CPEC must be viewed as a major threat. Both countries have a common intention to undermine India`s position in the region”.

During the visit of Modi to China in 2015, External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj reportedly told Chinese President Xi Jinping that projects passing through Gilgit-Baltistan are “unacceptable” as these require construction in the occupied territory. Foreign Secretary S Jaishankar has also said that the issue had been raised with the Chinese government on the trip. Then again, Swaraj reiterated this stance during a meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi while affirming that India would “resolutely oppose” the corridor in PoK.

In May 2015, the MEA had also summoned the Chinese envoy in New Delhi to lodge its opposition to the project. The Chinese Premier described CPEC as a “commercial project that would not target any third party”. In May 2016, Minister of State for External Affairs Gen VK Singh stated that while India had raised its concerns regarding CPEC, it was still awaiting a response from China.

Despite Indian objections, China and Pakistan initiated work on the $44 million Pakistan-China fibre optic project on May 19, 2016 which will pass through Gilgit-Baltistan. The Balochs also are raising their voices as they fear these infrastructure projects would cause mass displacement of the local populace. Further, political violence is threatening Chinese engineers and projects.

While Modi has raised the pitch of protest through his 15^th August statement, in many ways it has to be made shriller. At the same time, the speech is also being seen as tactics to leverage China to pressurise Pakistan to keep off J&K.

Undoubtedly, India has to develop new strategies to jeopardise the CPEC. If it is allowed to succeed, it might lead China to encircle India and hit its economic plans, wherein it would trigger a boom in Chinese exports and give a boost to the Pakistan economy too.

New Delhi needs to act in many ways to stall the corridor. It has already ensured that Bhutan does not agree to resolve the 4500-km border dispute with China. Thimpu has also not agreed to having diplomatic ties with China, which, however, is being pursued by Beijing.

As mentioned, the CPEC would hit India’s exports. Even now India has severely adverse balance of payment of $44.7 billion. And while India’s exports were a mere $7.56 billion in 2015-16, the imports were a whopping $52 billion. New Delhi needs to act economically, strategically and politically. It is not easy to reclaim lost territory but it needs to be orchestrated diplomatically at all international fora. If India has to keep its supremacy in the region, it cannot allow the new strategic alliance to succeed. China wants an easy Indo-Pak border so that it can send its products also through the western borders.

While India has sent out a signal, the region waits to see how it is pans out. The Chinese long march needs to be stopped and Pakistan be given a short shrift so that Khunjerab meets a natural death. It neither can prey on the Indian economy nor its territory.---INFA

(Copyright, India News and  Feature Alliance)