Economic
Highlights
New
Delhi, 6 June, 2016
Change Course…
TO BECOME HUGE ECONOMY
By Shivaji Sarkar
India has the capacity to be
a $ 5 trillion economy from today’s $ 2 trillion. Undoubtedly, Finance Minister
Jaitley is right. But we need to change course. Certainly, economic reform is a
confusing word. It now means increasing disparity and moving the Government
away from the people’s problem.
Indeed, various epithets
which describe reform might speak of the reality yet it does not suggest a
cohesive path. This is reflected in the not so good farm growth, notwithstanding
the GDP hovering between 7.6 and 7.9 per cent. It also does not state that jobs
are growing, else firms hiring IIT and IIM graduates would either not “bench”
them, cancel their appointments or renegotiate (reduce) the offered wages.
Farmers too are not
happy, despite, of late, the NDA Government’s focus being on them. Worse, disparity
and despondency is growing and growing at every level. Be it between the super
rich and the rich, they and the upper middle class. More. This gap widens
between the upper middle and the lower middle and those below that level or on
the fringe of poverty.
This is not all. The
complexity of the problem is increasing wherein the Governments and policy
planners are looking for ways to deal with this. Many short-cuts like odd-even
road rationing are just not an administrative problem but it reflects the
psyche of the deprived.
Compounding this, there
is envy between those who are “little” haves and those that do not have the
“little” also. The Jats or Patels clamour for Government jobs’ reservation and
consequent violence are signs of this restlessness.
Besides the earlier
“haves” who are now slipping to be have-nots are in severe social and economic
stress. Questionably, why are those who had earlier refused reservation now
demanding it? This reflects that there is a difference between statistical
growth and happiness.
Importantly, the State
is unable to address these issues. And they are obviously not mere law and
order problems.
Clearly, the country has
to go deeper and our leaders need to sink political differences and keep the
society in a cohesive state as that is the first step towards real progress. India has to
come out of the mere “growth” syndrome as it is perhaps, only helping one
section of the populace who are becoming monopolists and trying to be owners of
all aspects of society.
True, it looks good to
have a few powerful rich people but it does not solve the problems of the
countryside, of the deprived, semi-clad, hungry teeming millions, no matter
they are contributing to the progress of the poor and possibly have more to lose.
Arguably, if the economy
improves, one cannot understand why 80 crores farmers and related people (about
54 per cent of the population) live in abysmal conditions?
Shockingly, the latest
National Sample Survey (NSSO) data on farm debt is an eye opener. It underscores
that of 9.02 crores farmers families, 52 per cent were in debt in 2013, while
ten years earlier, in 2003 they accounted for 48.6 per cent.
Needless to say, despite
the whopping Rs 52,000 crores farm loan waiver before the 2009 polls, nothing
has improved. Moreover, the farm families have an average debt of Rs 47,000. Bluntly,
a testimony to not only failure of waivers but also of the small sums farmers
have to look for loans.
Remember, the British
rulers were stunned to find that multi-crop Indian agriculture was the
foundation for a happy prospering country. Decades of neglect, some started by
the British themselves, is causing havoc with the farm sector.
As a result it hits all
others sectors and increases discontent in society. Obviously, it is no
coincidence that the Jats, Patels or others OBCs in Maharashtra,
Andhra Pradesh, Telengana and Karnataka are from the farming communities.
Pertinently, this calls
for a paradigm shift as Prime Minister Modi has ignited aspirations. As his regime
is open to discussion, more suggestions are coming. Further, the massive
mandate for him is the mandate to engineer the necessary change.
Add to this, with years
of misguided rule, the path to progress has become too complex. But the Government
cannot abandon the decades’ long path all of a sudden even as it looks for a
new path and method. This is a challenge.
Especially against the
backdrop of the country’s economic pattern being one of cooperation by all
social groups offering different skills. Still such social groups or
caste-based skills are not passé wherein integrating such skills with the new
Skill India
will not be easy.
However, the Government
has to look for avenues for integrating them. It needs to go beyond the
bureaucratic registration process to make most of Modi’s Make in India to Stand-up
India a success.
Look at the dichotomy. Although
many people do not want to register, yet they want the benefit but do not want
to be socially seen as seekers of favours. Thus, it is a difficult social
process given if they do not come forward, they lose and in the process the
entire nation, its society, economy and even political set-up become losers.
Therefore, there should
be a policy discussion on how social groups which were strong pillars of India’s
socio-economic structure can be rejuvenated, that too, without creating new
problems or divisions.
In short, the Government
has to include the existing skills with the new approach, something that was
trying to be attempted through the set-ups like master craftsmen. Also, the 35
per cent rise in KVIC is an indicator that village workers can contribute.
See how the village
industries segment as a whole registered sale of Rs 36,425 crores during
2015-16 against Rs 31,965 crores during 2014-15, thereby marking a jump of 14
per cent compared to the 2014-15 growth of just 6.29 per cent while sales were
Rs 30,073 crores in 2013-14. This phenomenon has to be widened and must include
many who still remain out of its ambit.
In sum, the country has
to look for ways to bring down prices and strengthen the rupee as a stronger currency
is a must for a growth which has to be all encompassing. Given that high prices
and taxes are the bane of the economy.
India’s new economy in the
long run cannot be inflationary, discriminatory and exploitative. It should
give support to the needy but avoid proffering doles. We need an open economy
with few rules, paper work and virtually setting up a path to fast decision
making. Unmistakably, it is not necessary to expand to a $ 5 trillion economy
or more but we need to include all in that process. That is what an Indian
pines for. --- INFA
(Copyright,
India News and Feature Alliance)
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