Events & Issues
New Delhi, 2 June 2016
Jobless Growth
SERIOUS CHALLENGE
FOR MODI
By Dhurjati Mukherjee
With the NDA Government completing two years,
one can safely say that though the economy is moving on expected lines without
any scandals, the performance evaluation would, to a great extent, depend on
job creation.
Undoubtedly this will be the biggest challenge
for Modi’s Government in the coming years. The spectre of unemployment and
under-employment is increasing at a rapid pace with lakhs of educated youth
entering the work force.
While employment opportunities in the Government
sector, including public sector units, have been greatly reduced, the same is
true of the private sector. Add to this, the mechanization of operations
in all fields which is curbing the employment potential.
In fact, economists and planners are talking
of jobless growth which for a populous country like India would obviously be
disastrous. Indeed, the increase in violence and different forms of crimes are
testimony to the fact that unemployed youths are being led to indulge in anti-social
activities, which is expected to increase in the coming years.
More. According to estimates, around 15
million jobs were created in 2005-2012, leaving a backlog of 50 million
unemployed, in these seven years. This might increase to around 60 million
presently and judging by current trends, the situation would get out of control
in the next ten years or so when another 80 million would join the workforce.
Take the situation in the agricultural sector.
True, farming has undergone a sea change in the last two decades. According to
a report a few years back, around 90 per cent of power is now drawn from
mechanical sources whereby tractors and power tillers provide the bulk 47 per
cent, electric motors 27 per cent and diesel engines 16 per cent.
Besides, while according to the 1991 census there
were 111 million cultivators and 75 million agricultural labourers a total of
185 million people working on the land. But as per the 2011 census there were 119
million cultivators and 144 million agricultural labourers, an aggregate of 263
million people working on land. Moreover, though population increased by 43 per
cent in 20 years,
the number of landless agricultural labourers shot up by an astonishing 93 per
cent!
There is no gainsaying, the primary reason for
this can be attributed to an increasing army of under-employed finding no work,
thereby forcing them to crowd into agriculture or related rural work. This also
pushed up migration to cities in search of jobs where also opportunities are declining
day by day.
This is not all. In
regard to manufacturing, it is at a low ebb and remains one of the lagging
sectors. The Prime Minister’s much-touted ‘Make in India’ has yet to become a reality
and it is not known when and how this will happen.
Meanwhile Chinese
imports continue to flood the Indian market. Consequently, one cannot really
have an idea of the scale of employment that the manufacturing sector would
generate in the next five or ten years.
Further, the
labour-intensive sectors, especially textiles, garments, jewellery, BPOs and
handlooms too are not doing quite well vis-à-vis
employment generation. As most new units along-with the old ones are going for
modernization, in other words, implementing technologies which need less labour
wherein work can be carried out through automation. This has steadily become a
serious cause for concern as surplus labour is increasing every day.
Additionally, though
through the ‘Digital India’ project, the NDA Government plans to set up
franchise BPOs in small towns to give the desired services to ordinary
citizens, the process has just began, according to the IT and electronics
Secretary. It is expected that some employment might be created if and when
these franchise BPOs are set up all over the country.
Furthermore, there is
a possibility of job creation in the realm of infrastructural development.
Compared to China’s
385 cities, our country has only 50 cities with a million plus people and in
most of these cities, there is need for substantial improvement, especially in
areas such as slum upgradation, sewerage and drainage and treatment of drinking
water.
Notably, apart from
cities, if small towns are provided proper facilities, self-employment
opportunities would develop and a large section of those who have virtually no
work in agriculture, but have some education could move to non-farm areas. This
would also increase their income and ensure better livelihood opportunities.
Undeniably, the strategy
of focusing on increasing GDP growth without looking into grass-root employment
generation has to undergo a change if adequate employment generation along with
self-employment on a large scale has to be ensured.
Pertinently, the
Government has already taken a step by initiation of its Skills Programme but
this should have been done by involving the voluntary sector which, alas, has
not been done.
In the meantime the
small scale and micro sectors would have to be given all types of encouragement
including technological support and financial assistance to boost their
production and ensure economies of scale.
Especially against the
backdrop, as there is not much evidence of the work being done in this regard
by the Centre and State Governments. As such, an action plan needs to be
formulated, keeping in view the urgent requisite of employment generation.
Another aspect of this
is the need for popularizing handlooms both for domestic and export purposes.
Towards that end, Prime Minister Modi has correctly identified the need to properly
brand and market. Though efficiency levels have to be improved with
technological finesse, these products could steadily become the symbol of
‘Brand India’
with a little more effort at the Central level.
Certainly, Modi himself
could be the brand ambassador of these fabrics having modern designs and proper
finish to increase acceptability, not just in the domestic but also in the
international market. This would go a long way in generating jobs as also in
improving income levels of those involved in this not-so-healthy sector.
Obviously, the Prime
Minister’s vision of ‘Housing for All’ by 2022 is a dream idea
as the process of construction would make it possible for jobs creation
in a big way. In the present scenario, the task is challenging but it is vital the
Government make all possible efforts in this direction.
All in all, the
Government’s focus must be on the rural sector, large parts of which are still
undeveloped and where infrastructure development would go a long way in
employment generation, directly or indirectly. But huge resources would be
needed for this. It remains to be seen how the NDA Administration would be able
to do so in this venture. ----INFA
(Copyright,
India News and Feature Alliance)
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