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Jobless Growth: SERIOUS CHALLENGE FOR MODI, By Dhurjati Mukherjee, 2 June, 2016 Print E-mail

Events & Issues

New Delhi, 2 June 2016

Jobless Growth

SERIOUS CHALLENGE FOR MODI

By Dhurjati Mukherjee

With the NDA Government completing two years, one can safely say that though the economy is moving on expected lines without any scandals, the performance evaluation would, to a great extent, depend on job creation.

Undoubtedly this will be the biggest challenge for Modi’s Government in the coming years. The spectre of unemployment and under-employment is increasing at a rapid pace with lakhs of educated youth entering the work force.

While employment opportunities in the Government sector, including public sector units, have been greatly reduced, the same is true of the private sector. Add to this, the mechanization of operations in all fields which is curbing the employment potential.

In fact, economists and planners are talking of jobless growth which for a populous country like India would obviously be disastrous. Indeed, the increase in violence and different forms of crimes are testimony to the fact that unemployed youths are being led to indulge in anti-social activities, which is expected to increase in the coming years. 

More. According to estimates, around 15 million jobs were created in 2005-2012, leaving a backlog of 50 million unemployed, in these seven years. This might increase to around 60 million presently and judging by current trends, the situation would get out of control in the next ten years or so when another 80 million would join the workforce.

Take the situation in the agricultural sector. True, farming has undergone a sea change in the last two decades. According to a report a few years back, around 90 per cent of power is now drawn from mechanical sources whereby tractors and power tillers provide the bulk 47 per cent, electric motors 27 per cent and diesel engines 16 per cent.

Besides, while according to the 1991 census there were 111 million cultivators and 75 million agricultural labourers a total of 185 million people working on the land. But as per the 2011 census there were 119 million cultivators and 144 million agricultural labourers, an aggregate of 263 million people working on land. Moreover, though population increased by 43 per cent in 20 years, the number of landless agricultural labourers shot up by an astonishing 93 per cent!

There is no gainsaying, the primary reason for this can be attributed to an increasing army of under-employed finding no work, thereby forcing them to crowd into agriculture or related rural work. This also pushed up migration to cities in search of jobs where also opportunities are declining day by day. 

This is not all. In regard to manufacturing, it is at a low ebb and remains one of the lagging sectors. The Prime Minister’s much-touted ‘Make in India’ has yet to become a reality and it is not known when and how this will happen.

 

Meanwhile Chinese imports continue to flood the Indian market. Consequently, one cannot really have an idea of the scale of employment that the manufacturing sector would generate in the next five or ten years.

 

Further, the labour-intensive sectors, especially textiles, garments, jewellery, BPOs and handlooms too are not doing quite well vis-à-vis employment generation. As most new units along-with the old ones are going for modernization, in other words, implementing technologies which need less labour wherein work can be carried out through automation. This has steadily become a serious cause for concern as surplus labour is increasing every day.

 

Additionally, though through the ‘Digital India’ project, the NDA Government plans to set up franchise BPOs in small towns to give the desired services to ordinary citizens, the process has just began, according to the IT and electronics Secretary. It is expected that some employment might be created if and when these franchise BPOs are set up all over the country.  

 

Furthermore, there is a possibility of job creation in the realm of infrastructural development. Compared to China’s 385 cities, our country has only 50 cities with a million plus people and in most of these cities, there is need for substantial improvement, especially in areas such as slum upgradation, sewerage and drainage and treatment of drinking water. 

 

Notably, apart from cities, if small towns are provided proper facilities, self-employment opportunities would develop and a large section of those who have virtually no work in agriculture, but have some education could move to non-farm areas. This would also increase their income and ensure better livelihood opportunities.

 

Undeniably, the strategy of focusing on increasing GDP growth without looking into grass-root employment generation has to undergo a change if adequate employment generation along with self-employment on a large scale has to be ensured.

 

Pertinently, the Government has already taken a step by initiation of its Skills Programme but this should have been done by involving the voluntary sector which, alas, has not been done.

 

In the meantime the small scale and micro sectors would have to be given all types of encouragement including technological support and financial assistance to boost their production and ensure economies of scale.

 

Especially against the backdrop, as there is not much evidence of the work being done in this regard by the Centre and State Governments. As such, an action plan needs to be formulated, keeping in view the urgent requisite of employment generation.

 

Another aspect of this is the need for popularizing handlooms both for domestic and export purposes. Towards that end, Prime Minister Modi has correctly identified the need to properly brand and market. Though efficiency levels have to be improved with technological finesse, these products could steadily become the symbol of ‘Brand India’ with a little more effort at the Central level.

 

Certainly, Modi himself could be the brand ambassador of these fabrics having modern designs and proper finish to increase acceptability, not just in the domestic but also in the international market. This would go a long way in generating jobs as also in improving income levels of those involved in this not-so-healthy sector.   

 

Obviously, the Prime Minister’s vision of ‘Housing for All’ by 2022 is a dream idea as the process of construction would make it possible for jobs creation in a big way. In the present scenario, the task is challenging but it is vital the Government make all possible efforts in this direction.

 

All in all, the Government’s focus must be on the rural sector, large parts of which are still undeveloped and where infrastructure development would go a long way in employment generation, directly or indirectly. But huge resources would be needed for this. It remains to be seen how the NDA Administration would be able to do so in this venture. ----INFA

 

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)

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