Round The World
New Delhi, 1 June
2016
Re-energizing Iran Ties
CHABAHAR GAME
CHANGER
By Amrita Banerjee
(School of International Studies,
JNU, New Delhi)
Even
before India announced
Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Iran,
it was certain that New Delhi
was keen on upgrading ties with this “extended neighbour”.
Pertinently, international interest
in ties with Iran has been
growing since Tehran and the Group 5+1 (Russia, China,
US, Britain, France and Germany) last July finalized a
comprehensive nuclear deal and started implementing it January 2016. Called the
Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) agreement it terminated related
sanctions imposed on Iran.
Undoubtedly,
the removal of sanctions following the nuclear deal ended Iran’s isolation
and enabled its return to the economic and diplomatic mainstream. Over the last
few months, Tehran
hosted several high-profile visitors, including Chinese President Xi
Jinping and Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi.
Besides, three
Union Ministers including Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj travelled to Tehran over
the last few months to step up engagement, revive stalled joint projects and set
the stage for Modi’s visit.
The Prime
Minister visit ten days ago took India-Iran relations to the next level by
bridging the trust deficit in bilateral cooperation, boosting energy and trade
ties while expediting New Delhi’s
connectivity plans. His visit was the first by an Indian Prime Minister in 15 years
and came four months after the sanctions on Iran were lifted.
Notably, his visit was most
opportune for the various reasons: One, to diversify and increase India’s oil and
gas supplies. Two, enhance connectivity and trade with Afghanistan, Central Asia
and beyond. Three, hedge Iran’s
geopolitical bets in the region vis-à-vis
other players, notably Pakistan,
Saudi Arabia
and Gulf Cooperation Council members. Four, balance China’s
growing influence and engage the US
in ensuring that India’s
interests are protected in the region.
Keeping our
shared history and civilisational ties in mind, Tehran
and New Delhi inked 12 agreements, including a
pact to develop southern port Chabahar which lies in the Gulf of Oman.
Undoubtedly, this port is considered a rebellion against history as the long
term potential of its connectivity is immense.
Primarily,
as it would alter the geopolitical map of South and Central Asia by providing
alternative access to landlocked Afghanistan
thereby bypassing Pakistan.
This would boost business, trade, economic ties through initiatives like the
North South Transport Corridor and help the three countries realize their full
economic potential of their friendship which was hamstrung by connectivity
problems.
Also this free
trade zone offers Indian companies a new investment destination at a
well-connected port city. Since the Kandla-Chabahar distance is less than the New
Delhi-Mumbai expanse there can be quick movement of goods which would cut
transport time and costs by a third.
Strategically
too, Chabahar is just 100 km from Pakistan’s
Gwadar port, the centrepiece of a $46 billion economic corridor which China is
building. Though the Indian investment of $500 million in Chabahar does not
match the scale of China’s project,
the Iranian port will act as a gateway for India
to Central Asia bypassing the China-Pakistan
arc.
Further, Chabahar
has given wings to Modi’s dream of creating a “vast network of physical and
digital connectivity which extends from Eurasia’s northern corner to Asia’s southern shore”.
What's
more the new trade route would also ease business with Central Asia’s
energy-rich economies as India
is the world’s fourth-largest energy consumer and access to Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan’s gargantuan gas
reserves would meet its future needs.
Importantly,
the political importance being given to the Chabahar project underscores that
it is “not just any commercial deal but is one project which is linked to Afghanistan’s
future economy and stability that can ensure peace and stability in the Indian
subcontinent in the long run.
With the
Chabahar project, New Delhi has raised the
stakes in Tehran
substantially to transform this port into a hub for Indian business. However, India
has to make sure that the execution of this project is prompt keeping in mind its
past inconsistent record in finishing big projects abroad like the Kaladan
multi-modal transport project which was to link the North-eastern States to
Myanmar’s Sittwe port.
To oversee its speedy execution,
the Union Cabinet has authorized the Finance, Foreign and Shipping Ministers to
approve the final contract with Tehran
and resolve any issue arising in its implementation. Moreover, it has authorized
the Shipping Ministry to form a company in Iran for implementing the Chabahar
Port Development Project and related activities.
Certainly,
if properly executed, the port’s development can potentially act as a game
changer. For the same reason, some US
Senators have questioned whether India’s decision to develop the
port violates international sanctions or not. Surely, New
Delhi would soon clear the air on this when Modi travels to Washington for a
“farewell” visit to outgoing President Barack Obama this month.
Additionally,
vis-à-vis the energy issue which dominates
India-Iran relations, both share the goal of a stable government in Kabul free of Taliban’s
influence. Globally, New Delhi and Tehran are on the same
page in their opposition towards groups like al-Qaeda and the Islamic State.
The Islamic
Revolution leader Ayatollah Khamenei has said that since terrorist groups are
recruiting forces in Muslim countries by taking advantage of some problems and
weaknesses in this community, combating terrorism must be also be assigned to
Muslim States even as he expressed regret that terrorist activities are often
wrongly attributed to Islam.
Despite
these shared interests, bilateral ties in the past had taken a beating during
the sanctions years. India had
voted against Iran at the International Atomic Energy Agency over its clandestine nuclear programme
and, under pressure from America
slashed oil imports from the country by up to 40 per cent during the period. New Delhi also backed off from a pipeline project which aimed
to bring natural gas from Iran
to India through Pakistan.
But with
sanctions removed and foreign countries and companies rushing to Tehran to seize business and economic deals, it is
important for New Delhi
to reboot and revitalize bilateral relations.
Iran also seems keen on pursuing
stronger ties with India.
The Iranian Government had expressed interest in expediting stalled projects thus
Modi’s visit assumes greater significance in the larger context of his own
policy of enhanced engagement with West Asia.
Furthermore,
the Prime Minister’s Iran
visit comes after his trips to the UAE and Saudi
Arabia and ahead of
visits to Qatar and Israel. His Government
appears to be trying to reach out to the three poles of this region. While it
will pursue good ties with the Sunni Gulf for energy supplies, Iran
would act as a gateway to Central Asia as also enhancing India’s energy
security. Israel remains one
of India’s
top defence and technology suppliers.
Clearly, the
success of this policy depends on New
Delhi’s capacity to do the balancing act. The Iran visit should be seen an opportunity to
restore equilibrium in India’s
foreign policy which, of late, was seen to be skewed towards Israel and Saudi Arabia. ---- INFA
(Copyright, India
News and Feature Alliance)
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