Events & Issues

New Delhi, 18 May 2016

State Assembly Elections

REGIONAL vs REGIONAL vs NATIONAL PARTIES

By Dr S.Saraswathi

(Former Director, ICSSR, New Delhi)

The ballot boxes for elections to five Legislative Assemblies of Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal and Puducherry will be opened tomorrow 19 April.  Coming mid-term of the Modi-led NDA Government  observers are inclined to receive   the results as a verdict on the outgoing State Governments performance as also a judgment on the regime in power at the Centre.

True, State elections are fought on local issues and centre around State-level leaders.   But, the change at the national scene in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls has kindled people’s interest to closely watch the fortunes of both the victor and the vanquished --- BJP and Congress --- and assess their ascendancy and decline vis-à-vis their causes.  

Notably, each of these States has its own local politics which dominated the electoral battle even in places where the national Parties made a bid for power with their countrywide agenda.  Whereby the issues raised were different, manifestoes showed a variety, alliances were State-specific and campaigning was in typical State-styles.

Besides, pre-election campaigns surrounding alliance formations took a long time to settle and caused some surprises in States. But, we have gained enough knowledge of electoral politics to understand that there are no surprises in the race for power and positions.

Moreover, except Kerala and Assam, where the Congress is still a force to reckon with, the other three States are in the grip of regional/State level Parties. Where the Grand Dame is aspiring only to sustain and if possible improve its past performance. This too, in many places, not in terms of seats won but in the percentage of votes polled.  Take Tamil Nadu, the Congress share of constituencies is drastically reduced from 63 in 2011 to 41 in its alliance with Karunanidhi’s DMK.

However the elections for Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and Puducherry’s Assemblies is virtually a contest among entrenched State-level parties to capture power. Whereby, the results would show the changes, if any, in the importance of   regional Parties in our federal system.

Importantly, one of the major striking features is the role of the CPI(M) vis-à-vis the Congress. They are alliance partners in West Bengal, opponents in Kerala and a constituent of a State-level Third Front (against the DMK and the AIADMK) without the Congress in Tamil Nadu.

In fact, ever since its break with the Congress-led UPA Government (I) in 2009 over the nuclear deal at the Centre, the Left has steadily been losing ground despite some expecting it would have a bright future for its principled stand at that time.

Interestingly, a State-level Third Front called the People’s Welfare Alliance (PWA) was formed in Tamil Nadu by the MDMK, CPI(M), CPI and VCK. Certainly not out of ideological unity but compulsion of another option in alliance politics. The PWA issued a common manifesto but the Tamil Manila Congress, breakaway group of the TNCC, which joined this alliance, had its own agenda.

Furthermore, Tamil Nadu is the leader of freebies politics, a practice well developed by both the DMK and its bête noire AIADMK. The ruling AIADMK promised 100 units of free power, 50 per cent cut in the price of two-wheelers for working women and free mobile phones for all family card holders.

More. An increase in the stipend for fishermen during the lean season and exclusive housing scheme, eight grams of gold upping it from four grams for girls at the time of marriage and free set top boxes for Arasu Cable consumers.  Certainly, prospective clients of freebies did not question how these promises would be met.  Perhaps, thinking it is wages for votes.

Significantly, the PMK boldly opposed the offer of freebies altogether as demeaning to the recipients which made them virtually beggars.  It held that education, skill training and job opportunities are people’s needs and not free delivery of goods.  The impact of this message on the voters is to be seen in the results.

Remember, the Supreme Court in a judgment in 2014 had held there was nothing in the Representation of People Act against offering freebies, but observed that “distribution of freebies shakes the root of free and fair elections to a large degree” and is detrimental to fiscal discipline. Alas, this observation had no effect, and elections in Tamil Nadu are literally reduced to a freebie competition.

Additionally, all Parties unanimously promised prohibition of liquor which was elevated to a principal election issue. Though presently there is no law to punish failure of Parties in fulfilling poll promises there is a strong view to make them responsible for carrying out promises. Interestingly, the Tamil Manila Congress had promised this in its manifesto.

Also starting with Kalanidhi Maran’s Sun TV almost all Parties in Tamil Nadu have their own channels to boost their image. Even a small outfit like the Viduthalai Sirutai which champions the cause of Dalits has started its own channel called “Velicham” meaning “light”.

In Kerala where the Muslim and Christian population outnumbers Hindus in some places, the BJP is steadfastly trying to get a foothold. By bringing a number of small communities within its fold, it formed a rainbow coalition.  Among these, the Ezhavas, mostly followers of 20^th century social reformer Narayana Guru needs special mention.

The rise of the BJP, in at least a small measure, is anticipated in this multi-religious region where the Congress-led UDF and the CPI(M)-led LDF have been dominating politics for a long time.  Its vote share which stood at 10 per cent in the 2014 Lok Sabha election increased to 16 per cent in the Panchayat elections held last year.

In West Bengal, fort of Mamata’s Trinamool Congress, a breakaway Party of disgruntled politicians belonging to the Congress and CPI(M), is naturally anxious to return to power against the “unholy alliance” of the Congress and Left.  Obviously, the common factor binding the former allies-turned-enemy-turned friend is their common enemy, TMC and its bold leader.

While the TMC promised “Paribortan” (change), the BJP countered with “development”, the Congress-CPM promised a change from personality-based contests, read Mamata. Amidst innumerable bribery charges.

Assam, a Congress stronghold is important for the Party more than its rivals as it has been in power for the last 15 years. The BJP, which won only nine seats out of 126 in the last Assembly election held in 2011, substantially improved its position in the 2014 Lok Sabha poll when it got seven out of 14 seats.  To silence its critics at least, the Hindutva brigade has to maintain its progress.

All in all, although State elections are State-centric wherein the stakes are very high for regional players, national Parties cannot remain complacent. For the Congress, retaining its place in Assam and Kerala is crucial for its very survival. 

For the BJP, it is an opportunity to highlight its national significance and build its strength for the next Lok Sabha election due in 2019, even in States where it has to be satisfied with a strong contingent of “think tank” and not voter support. ---- INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)