Round The World

New Delhi, 4 May 2016

India-Pakistan Talks

ANOTHER CASE OF MISSED OPPORTUNITY?

By Amrita Banerjee

(School of International Studies, JNU, New Delhi)

The recent meeting between India and Pakistan’s Foreign Secretaries in Delhi served as a reality check on the stalemate in the bilateral dialogue between both countries. Meeting on the sidelines of the Heart of Asia Conference, the two officials failed to find common ground to kick start the Comprehensive Bilateral Dialogue process or even agree on a timetable.

Both underscored the talks bore no results. Add to this, the separate statements by the two foreign offices listing point-wise the issues discussed were an equal indicator of the discord.

Predictably, New Delhi raised its concerns about Pathankot, the 26/11 investigation, and consular access to alleged spy Kulbhushan Jadhav. Islamabad brought up the supposed Indian interference in Baluchistan, concerns about the Samjhauta Express blast investigations and again reiterated Kashmir as the ‘core issue’, echoing its traditional position on the dispute.

Neither mentioned the other’s concerns, with both statements aimed at their respective domestic audiences rather than a bilateral outreach.

Undeniably, despite many setbacks, there have been numerous occasions over the past year to encourage hope that dialogue will acquire some sort of permanence. To begin with, the meeting in Ufa between the two Prime Ministers that drew up an ambitious road map for talks, subsequent meeting in Paris and Prime Minister Modi’s surprise Christmas visit to Lahore gave new hopes and pulled ties out of a deep freeze.

Alas the Pathankot attack upset this blossoming relation yet again. Things were revived by Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj’s December visit to Islamabad when a new Comprehensive Bilateral Dialogue between the Foreign Secretaries was announced. A sustained contact between the National Security Advisers also gave an impression of momentum towards a historic summit in November 2016 when Islamabad would host the SAARC Summit.

Importantly, Prime Minister Modi and Nawaz Sharif, who have kept a direct line of conversation alive, have expressed their vision of bilateral ties with clarity. It is now for the two Governments-which in Pakistan’s case also means the military establishment to work towards realizing that vision.

Undoubtedly, terrorism is a real threat for India be it from Pakistan-based terrorists in the Valley or the radicalization of Indian youths by the Islamic State; an issue discussed by the Intelligence Bureau recently in a two day conference.

India made clear that it refuses on principle to encourage separatism or interfere in other countries’ internal matters. As this is part of New Delhi’s larger case that all terrorism charges must be treated equally and there can be no distinction between ‘bad’ and ‘good’ terrorists.

India’s moral position on terrorism and its refusal to bend its principles regardless of provocations from repeated terror attacks have benefited its global outreach on crucial issues, including security. However, the need of the hour is a constructive discussion on this as both nations cannot inch towards peace without resolving this important security concern.

Moreover, things take an uglier turn when another neighbour China provides cover to Pakistan-based terrorists like Hafiz Saeed and Masood Azhar by blocking action against including their names in the UN terror roll.

Interestingly, recently Beijing also advocated direct talks between New Delhi and Islamabad as it was anchored in the UN 1267 Committee rules and procedure where the Azhar issue was raised.

Clearly, China’s double standards vis-à-vis terrorism and separatism are revealed when it relates to its own national sovereignty. Highlighted by Beijing’s annoyance over India issuing a visa and later revoking it to Chinese dissident Uyghur leader Dolkun Isa to visit Dharamsala with participants representing Taiwan, Tibet and Uyghur regions.

True, every country has the right to preserve their national interests and territorial integrity but at the same time they should also be sensitive to neighbourhood countries concerns. Good relations can be sustained and maintained only on mutual recognition and respect for each other.

Notably, the lack of unanimity especially the position taken by the Hurriyat leaders during Indo-Pak bilateral talks further complicate the situation Their insistence on supporting Pakistan on Kashmir being  the core issue is not only distasteful but also has definite political connotations so far as Kashmir’s domestic politics is concerned.

Besides, Islamabad reserves the right to talk about ‘Kashmir’ only when it has set its house in order. The Pakistani Army Chief’s recent removal of 13 officers, implicitly suggests that Prime Minister Sharif need to quit. More so, after names of some family members appeared in the recent Panama Papers leak.

Plainly, it seems the military is getting ready to take over the reins of Government for the fifth time in its 69 years of existence. Obviously, to perform its self-acquired additional role of defending national security.

Grapevine in Pakistan suggests four future possibilities: One, Sharif’s Government is forced to resign under some imagined public pressure and elections held again. Two, the Government goes but is replaced with a broad-based National Government.

Three, Prime Minister Sharif resigns but his Pakistan Muslim League-N continues under another leader. Last, the military steps in acknowledging the reality that the civil leadership and the generals can never be on the same page.  

There is no gainsaying, the oligarchic warfare in Pakistan has turned more complex. Wherein, this uncertainty is bound to have serious repercussions in India-Pakistan’s bilateral relationship. The more productive way of moving forward would have been to schedule structured meetings at the Foreign Secretaries’ level for the next few months, even as the two National Security Advisers take up issues related to terrorism in the wake of the Pathankot attack.

Islamabad has been particularly reluctant for full- fledged discussion on terrorism, but as it hosts the SAARC summit later this year, it might be willing to be more flexible in framing the talk’s agenda.

Today, many question the feasibility of such stop-start talks but the larger fact remains that besides strengthening talks and the dialogue process, it is high time to fortify our country by strengthening her militarily too.

Thus, India’s recent decision to install a dozen ‘laser walls’ along the Indo-Pak border, given the impossibility of active human surveillance along its boundary, is certainly a laudable step. Time to take our security in own hands.

In sum, even as the Indo-Pakistan knot might be difficult to detangle but it isn’t an impossible task. In a world where US and Cuba have restored ties, Russia and China have formed a close partnership and Iran has emerged from isolation it is not too much to hope that India and Pakistan can at least discuss key issues within a structured framework and continue making attempts till they achieve something concrete and substantial to their mutual satisfaction.  --- INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)