Economic Highlights
New
Delhi, 15 February 2016
Cheap Deposits A Bane
POLICY SHIFT VITAL
By Shivaji Sarkar
The economy is on a roll. Stocks are crashing, the
Rupee has touched a critical level, infrastructure projects are robbing bank
deposits and banks are writing off large loans and reducing interest rates. Naturally,
this is hitting the common man. Everyone plays with his hard earned money.
Notably, stocks have been tumbling before the
New Year, whereby on 11 December alone it tumbled 807 points and touched a low of
22,951 points. A major reason for this is the State Bank of India’s poor
performance as profits dipped by 62 per cent due to rising NPAs (Non Performing
Assets) and writing off of loans. Resulting, in SBI’s profit falling to Rs 1115
crores from Rs 2910 crores a year ago.
Another reason for stocks crashing is the
firming of the US
economy, perhaps a rise in interest rates and almost $ 2 billion or Rs 14,000
crores sold by foreign institutional investors (FII) since January. This trend
has hit mutual funds hard as they deal with the aam aadmi’s money additionally, average investors too will get less
returns.
It also hits the National Pension Scheme (NPS)
where Government employees’ savings are parked. Exposure of employees’ money to
the stock market is a dangerous risk not only to the employees but also to the Government
as it is the guarantor. Consequently, all other pension funds have also been
affected for similar reasons. Thus, a subscriber to such funds needs to be
cautious.
Undeniably, RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan has made
the correct noise. He wants deeps surgery of the banking sector to free it of
the lump of bad loans.
Pertinently, one needs to understand that public
sector banks have taken the burden of financing infrastructure. If PSU banks
had not financed infrastructure, growth in the Indian economy would not have
taken place. The SBI and Punjab National Bank are stated to have the highest
exposure to infra finance and Syndicate and HDFC the lowest.
According to RBI figures, stressed loans of the
infrastructure sector increased to 24 per cent of total advances by June 2015,
from 22.9 per cent till June 2014. Over the past ten years, bank lending to this
sector grew at the rate of 28 per cent, higher than the overall credit growth. And,
infrastructure’s share of bank credit doubled from 7.5 per cent in 2005 to 15
per cent in 2015.
Bluntly, over Rs 2 lakh crores of loans are
stressed out of the total infrastructure exposure of Rs 8.4 lakh crores. The
RBI notes that some of the loans extended by banks in the last few years have
already become bad assets. “Big corporate infrastructure players have taken too
much debt”, says Rajan.
Importantly, the reason is not economic
slowdown. According to PSU banks, several promoters who pushed for big loans
during the last ten years not only overestimated their demand-supply position.
Worse, they inflated project costs and many diverted funds. The banks too faltered
due to their appraisal systems being inadequate. The less said the better of some
bankers being in league with the swindlers.
Today, this is taking a heavy toll on banks, the
economy and the poor man’s deposits. It is hitting everyone hard and might even
hit the budgetary process.
A Crisil study states India needs Rs 6 lakh crores of
investments every year till March 2020. In short, Rs 30 lakh crores is need in
about five years to provide power, improve roads, telecom, transport and other
urban infrastructure.
Questionably, is the country stretching it a bit
too far? Will growth and production rise at a rate of 5 per cent, which is not a
high figure? Alas, this is not happening as demands are constricted and high
consumer inflation prevents people from making purchases.
Think. Almost 70 per cent families do not have any
spare money as their average income is between Rs 4,000-Rs 7,000 a month. Yes,
low purchasing power is a bane. The targets in comparison to this are too
ambitious and inflated.
Undoubtedly, this calls for systematic planning.
The Niti Aayog needs to research, find the fault-lines and correct the path. Is
that happening?
Add to this, the global economic scenario too is
unsupportive. The IMF has taken note of the slowdown. True, India is a
comparative brighter spot but slippery global markets have hit the country’s exports
forcing exporters to cut production at many levels.
Besides, global stocks too have been on sliding
with most Asian indices losing considerable ground on 11 February. Hong Kong closed 3.8 per cent lower and major European
indices fell sharply over oil price concerns and after the US Federal Reserve Chief
Janet Yellen raised concerns about the global economy.
The continuous fall in risky assets across the
globe, the trend in liquidity moving towards safe haven assets like bonds and
gold are also expanding the negative implications on the Indian market. The
turmoil in the domestic market also highlights the possibility of margin
pressure, which might continue to disturb the market.
Moreover, oil slid further indicating an
additional slowing world economy. Brent crude was at $ 30.53 and US West Texas
Intermediate (WTI) at $ 26.76, close to its lowest since 2003. However, this
trend should become the norm as the world is taking to renewable energy in a
big way.
As a result, in this mayhem everybody is ignoring
the Rupee which plummeted to Rs 68.30 to a US dollar as American currency demands
for foreign capital outflows --- more FII outgoes ---- increased. This is a
warning for those who say that falling Rupee would boost exports. It might or might
not but it makes inflation a reality. The benefit of low oil prices is also
lost for Indians as the US dollar becomes expensive.
Again, the Niti Aayog has to do deeper studies.
The Rupee cannot remain anaemic for long as a weak Indian currency has severe
repercussions. To be a global player India has not only to export but
also be a robust consumer. The Aayog needs to get deeper into the problems and
suggest solutions so that the Indian market emerges out of the woods.
Alongside, it also has to give the road map for
a stronger Rupee in the next two years not only for a stable market but also
for a steady polity.
Clearly, India has to look out for the safety of
the poor man’s savings which has fueled growth since Independence, decide on
high deposit and lending rates so that nobody can inflates demand and divert funds. The
country needs a shift in its policy else the economy and market would remain in
turmoil. ----- INFA
(Copyright,
India News and Feature Alliance)
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