Round The World

New Delhi, 13 February 2008

Iran Goes Ahead On N-Energy

WHITHER THE INDO-US NUCLEAR DEAL?

By Dr. Chintamani Mahapatra

School of International Studies, JNU

The nuclear deal between India and the US appears to have got stuck. Is it because the Opposition has gone relatively mild against this deal? Is it because the Government has nothing new to say on this? The CPM's ideological supremo, Prakash Karat, has threatened to restart a campaign against the nuclear deal and the US Ambassador Mulford has expressed his willingness to meet him to clarify doubts, if any.

Is it appropriate for an Ambassador to meet the Opposition leaders to clarify on a deal that has been finalized by his Government with the Government of the host country? No one has raised the appropriateness of this issue and it reflects that the Opposition parties have gone soft on this issue. The CPM has shown its interest in starting a campaign but has not done it yet.

A lot many events are happening outside of India and the US that would affect the fate of this deal until it truly materializes. Significantly, while Indian Government appears to be struggling hard to fulfill its side of the commitment to enable the Indo-US nuclear deal to come to its fruition, the Iranian Government is showing ever more determination to go ahead with its uranium enrichment programme.

Due to the political barriers erected by a constituent of the ruling coalition of the UPA Government, the Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is at pains to complete the process in time for the Indo-US civilian nuclear cooperation deal to materialize. The seriousness of the domestic hurdles to the nuclear policy is indicated by the willingness of the American Ambassador to meet with Prakash Karat, the leading champion of the Left’s opposition to the nuclear deal to clarify misperceptions.

Unlike India, the Iranian leadership does not have much domestic opposition to the country's civilian nuclear programme. On the eve of celebrating more than two decades of the successful Iranian Islamic Revolution when President Ahmadinejad asked a mammoth rally of people: ""I ask the people's view. Would you agree if I ... gave in, surrendered or compromised over the nuclear issue? Would you agree to give up one iota of your nuclear rights?" the crowd replied in response: "No!" and "Nuclear energy is our definite right."

Iran's main problem comes from the external sources, particularly the United States. Significantly, the Bush Administration is trying to convince the international community the potential danger of the Iranian civilian nuclear programme. The Americans do not believe that there is any urgent need for energy resource rich Iran to spend enormous amount of money in an expensive nuclear programme. Washington suspects that Tehran's main ambition is to develop a nuclear weapon capability.

Moreover, Iran has been at logger heads with the United States since 1979. Washington accuses Tehran of supporting anti-US terrorist groups, of opposing the Middle Eastern peace process, of indulging in destabilizing Lebanon and backing the anti-American insurgents in Iraq. An Iranian regime that has taken an extreme hard line position on the very existence of Israel and appears determined to go ahead with its nuclear programme is clearly unacceptable to the US.

Washington sees nothing but an ambition to acquire nuclear weapon capability in Tehran. It argues that denying Iran a full cycle civilian nuclear energy capability is the best for the non-proliferation goals of the international community.

Simultaneously, the US Administration is seeking international endorsement for a civilian nuclear cooperation plan with India by indicating the potential benefits of such a venture. The Indian nuclear energy programme, unlike the Iranian one, is viewed as a positive step towards nuclear non-proliferation. To the critics, it is a reflection of double standard of the Bush Administration, since it is seeking nuclear cooperation with a new nuclear weapon power outside the NPT regime and denying an NPT member its legitimate plan to generate nuclear energy.

However, the Bush Administration does not see a contradiction in its policy. It argues that the nuclear deal with India will promote environmentally friendly nuclear energy in a country that is experiencing one of the fastest economic growths in the world; will bring under safeguards 65 per cent of its nuclear reactors to boost the non-proliferation goals. However, by keeping its eyes closed to the Iranian nuclear programme it would certainly lead to emergence of a yet another nuclear weapon power in not so distant a future.

The Iranian dimension of the problems affecting the Indo-US nuclear deal is well known. The US has been urging India to halt its negotiations with Iran on the proposed Indian-Pakistan-Iran gas pipeline. New Delhi took a few steps to satisfy Washington’s demands, but the gas pipeline proposal reappears once in a while. The Ministers in charge of energy issues of the three countries are likely to meet in Tehran to discuss the issue. What does it mean?

India has also finalized negotiations with Russia for the construction of four new nuclear power plants. The signature on this subject will be inked once the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) give clearances for the civilian nuclear cooperation with India. What does this move towards Russia mean?

Is India using its proposed hydrocarbon energy cooperation with Iran and nuclear energy cooperation with Russia as bargaining chips? Certainly the Indian opponents of the Indo-US deal will be happy to see positive movements on these two issues. But will the United States feel satisfied with Indian moves towards Iran and Russia?

In fact, the Americans are currently in the midst of crucial Presidential election campaigns. The domestic opposition to the nuclear deal; and India's positive overtures towards Iran and Russia are like to complicate the Indo-US nuclear deal further, even as the US election campaigns unfold. Both the Democratic Party Presidential hopefuls are unlikely to back a deal initialed by the Republican Administration of George Bush. There is no guarantee that the Republican candidate McCain will replicate Bush's initiative towards India.

It is to be seen how this issue is played up during the election campaigns in the US. The Government of India has to make very careful diplomatic moves and issue official statements, if it continues to hold high hopes on this deal. ----INFA

 (Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)