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New Delhi, 4 April 2008

Karanataka Elections  

MAYAWATI & MULAYAM KEY PLAYERS

By M D Nalapat

Poor "Humble Farmer" Deve Gowda. After having been lured into breaking up with the BJP with the promise of a partnership with the Congress Party, he was left by the roadside. Former Chief Minister S M Krishna, KPCC chief Mallikarjun Kharge and CM-in-waiting Siddaramaiah prevailed on a vacillating Congress High Command to push for elections, rather than have another Congress-Janata Dal (Secular) coalition.

According to those, who till recently were occupying ministerial chambers in the government in Karnataka, the ornate Vidhana Soudha, Deve Gowda had been convinced by some of the myriad astrologers around him that there was no way he would come back as Prime Minister, were younger son Kumaraswamy to continue as Chief Minister.  Whether such talk of an astrological link to the downfall of Kumaraswamy is accurate or not, the fact remains that Deve Gowda's switch from saffron to "secular" destroyed the credibility of his party as a reliable coalition partner, and made a fresh Assembly election possible.

The Congress leadership saw an opportunity to take away the vote bank of the JD(S) and come back to power in Karnataka on its own. Deve Gowda's minority vote bank has been dented by his alliance with the BJP, while the return of S M Krishna to State politics from the comforts of the Mumbai Raj Bhavan is expected to win over the Vokkaliga votes that otherwise would have gone to Gowda. It is a fact that the US-educated Krishna has been popular, especially among the urban middle class, for his low-key charm and the reasonably effective government that he led

Should the Congress Party emerge as the single largest party in the State Assembly, it would be an easy matter to split the JD(S) enough to form the government. However, in case Deve Gowda wins even 35 seats (or half his earlier tally) and the BJP emerges as the single largest party in the State Assembly once again, the only way the Congress Party would be able to form the government would be through an alliance with him that would be unpopular both with the voters as well as the Congress cadre.

Even if Deve Gowda does not any more insist on getting the Chief Minister's portfolio for the JD(S), and agrees to a Congress CM with elder son Revanna as Deputy Chief Minister, the wily politician from Hassan would dominate the government, the way he did the earlier Congress-JD(S) coalition government headed by Congress leader Dharam Singh. An angry BJP would ensure a constant flow of fireworks gets diverted to the ministry, aided by the known proclivity of the large Deve Gowda clan to bend the system in ways that suit the interests of their friends.

Now well into his 70s, can S M Krishna make enough of a difference to the preferences of the electorate to ensure a humiliating rout for Gowda? For if the JD(S) wins 35 seats or more, Deve Gowda would see to it that Krishna gets prevented from coming as the Chief Minister. He would prefer that a non-Vokkaliga take the job, so as to avoid competition to his present status as the most powerful Vokkaliga chieftain. For Krishna, annihilating the JD(S) is a priority, even more than tackling the BJP

And, Gowda is making things easier for him, by refusing to work out a seat adjustment - thus far - with Sarekoppa Bangarappa, who leads the Samajwadi Party in the State. Although Bangarappa has only a 2 per – 4 per cent vote share across around 40 constituencies in the State, yet in at least 20 of these, the difference made by an alliance with him can enable the SP and the JD(S) to price those seats from the Congress and the BJP. However, Gowda is known for his refusal to make concessions to those wishing to be his allies, as Mulayam Singh is finding out. Were Kumaraswamy to prevail on his father and force an SP-JD(S) alliance, it would also help Gowda to win back the Muslim votes that have now gone to the Congress.

Besides Mulayam Singh, the other force that could destroy the hopes of a return to power by the Congress Party is the Bahujan Samaj Party. In more than 70 constituencies, Dalit votes are crucial, and should that community turn away from Congress in protest at the sidelining of KPCC chief Mallikarjun Kharge by the induction of Krishna, the BSP may make the difference between failure and success for the Congress Party in as many as 38 seats.

An abysmal Congress performance would enable the BJP to come to power on its own in Karnataka. That would be recompense for having been marginalized in Uttar Pradesh by the BSP and the SP. The future of Karnataka politics now hinges on whether the BSP and the SP can expand their support in a State that is tired of the major political parties it has experienced, the Congress, the BJP and the JD(S).---INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)