Political Diary

New Delhi, 29 December 2015

Modi-Sharif Meet

Dushman Ya Dost?

By Poonam I Kaushish

Friend or enemy? Both. Indeed, India-Pakistan relations are like being on a roller coaster ride. All depends on which way the political wind is blowing. The issue is not whether Prime Minister Modi’s masterstroke 90-minutes stopover in Lahore to wish counterpart Nawaz Sharif happy birthday was a ‘surprise’ or secretly meticulously planned. Either which way, NaMo has affixed his personal stamp to rejuvenate the India-Pakistan peace process.  Only time will tell if his out-of-the-box initiative would be a game-changer.

After realizing that his muscular diplomacy and bellicose statements were going nowhere, Modi has now adopted a soft personalized approach to kick start engagement and normalize ties plagued by terror attacks and long-standing distrust with a recalcitrant neighbour. In the last month alone Modi met Sharif at the Climate Change meet in Paris, shared a private guftagu with him at  Ufa (Russia) and both countries National Security Advisors held talks in Bangkok. 

Undeniably, Modi’s 360 degree turn has a whiff of his two illustrious predecessors, Vajpayee and Manmohan Singh. Both were driven by the reconciliation between two estranged brothers, both believed that there was no option but to engage with Pakistan as acrimony and animosity would restrict New Delhi’s ability to play a larger regional and global role.

Recall, the last Prime Minister to visit Pakistan was his erstwhile BJP colleague 11 years ago when he took a bus ride to Lahore in 1999 to meet Sharif, pre-Islamabad’s Kargil misadventure. While Pakistan was the pivot of the Congress Prime Minister South Asian neighbourhood vision. Indeed, Modi lived Singh’s dream of “having breakfast in Amritsar, lunch in Lahore and dinner in Kabul,” albeit breakfast in Moscow, lunch in Kabul and dinner in Lahore.

Questionably, is Modi re-writing the rules of his Pakistan policy? Demystifying the peace process? Will Modi be able to continue political engagement with Pakistan against the inevitable upsurge of negative and hostile public sentiment? Would he be able to maintain a careful balance between measured retaliation and continued engagement?

Asserted a senior South Block official, “Remember, Islamabad is no pushover, it needs to answer some tough questions. Are they doing enough on LeT, JeM and Hizbul Mujahideen? The Mumbai trials? On Lakhvi, Saeed et al all who remain a serious threat to India”?

Undeniably, this new found warmth could most likely be hijacked by the saboteurs of peace, be it fresh provocations from across the LoC or perhaps a terror attack. Recall, despite meetings and joint statements in Havana in 2006 and Sharm-el Sheikh three years later, terror struck Mumbai in all fury resulting in a sharp downturn.

The ice was broken again via cricket diplomacy and various confidence building measures in 2011-12 which totaled zero post terror strikes. Again Indo-Pak warmth rekindled with Sharif attending Modi’s swearing-in-ceremony mid 2014, followed by another spell of ugly tirades and belligerent rhetoric.

Peaceniks hold out hope as the calculus in Islamabad has changed for the better. For the time, Pakistan has an ex-army general as its national security adviser. Consequently, Sharif now has a direct link to the army which might result in a consistent and substantive India policy.

However, Sharif is not the final authority on ties with India. Pakistan’s ISI and army are and given their mischief making capabilities all have fingers crossed. Not a few feel the Pak generals are under increased pressure from within and without, read US, and need to shift their calculus as months of infiltration and accusations, reciprocated by India has earned them brickbats with world opinion heavily loaded against Islamabad. Thus, it is time to seek engagement anew even as it keeps its eyes locked on the Kashmir prize.

On the flip side, the Pakistani army and jihadi groups have everything to lose even from a limited improvement in India-Pakistan relations. For the ruling troika seeped in military tradition along-with its jihadist proxies, the ‘core’ issue of Kashmir is an article of faith. Besides, it is not in the realm of impossibility that their agenda is to keep New Delhi permanently off balance, damning India for not talking and damning it if it tries to.

Undeniably, India must come to terms with the fact that Army and ISI are opposed to any normalisation of bilateral relationship based on a practical and pragmatic resolution of long-standing disputes. Alongside, the jihadis too are against any reconciliation between India and Pakistan. Thus, even as the Prime Minister trudges the lonely peace road he should realize that good intentions alone cannot transform ties.

True, South Block has no illusions about any dramatic transformation in Islamabad’s policy. However, it needs an all-encompassing and multi-pronged strategy to deal with it. The Government and its security agencies need to remain ever vigilant, be one step ahead of the jihadis and act promptly vis-à-vis cross-border terrorism.

Notably, it is better for India and Pakistan to speak to each other than to stew about each other. Both cannot afford for the sub-Continent to once again become a flashpoint. New Delhi seems to have adopted a two-track approach: keep up military pressure on the border and engage actively diplomatically to constrain Islamabad room for manoeuvre internationally.

There is no gainsaying that decisive moments of progress invariably fan hope hopes and aspirations about improvement in India-Pakistan relations. Modi’s visit though path breaking is not a diplomatic breakthrough for all times. It was more of a courtesy call, high on symbolism but fraught with lurking dangers.

Both Prime Ministers did not hold substantive discussions nor present a peace plan but talked of the imperative need to continue talking. Arguably, every meeting doesn’t need to be a summit or end in a “result.  Reminiscent of a Nixon-goes-to-China Kodak moment.

In the ultimate, Indo-Pak ties have been a fruitless saga afflicted by it-loves-me-it-loves-me-not syndrome. Modi has taken a risk in extending an olive branch to Pakistan given many in the BJP are trenchant critics of a pro-Pak strategy. He has invested significant political capital in pursuing his Pakistan policy, juxtaposing personal chemistry with diplomatese.

If he is able to succeed in imparting a degree of normalcy in bilateral relations and enable mutually beneficial economic and commercial relations, the risk would have been worth taking. Alongside Sharif too needs to take advantage of the window of opportunity that has opened which could slam shut at any moment by the jihadist and their cahoots.

It remains to be seen if the Modi-Sharif parleys will impart some normalcy, herald a new consistent Pak policy encompassing mutually beneficial foreign, economic and social ties and be an important cog in NaMo’s India vision which translates into a being a super power in a unipolar world.

India wants durable peace though alone it cannot guarantee non-escalation. Our Pakistan policy cannot operate in a perceived vacuum of goodwill and expectations of better ties. Islamabad has to match its words with deeds. Above all, continuity is the need of the hour. Both sides need to maintain the momentum of the moment. What gives? ----- INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)