OPEN FORUM
New Delhi, 27 March 2008
2009 Election
Perspective
WILL CONGRESS, BJP
SWAP ROLES?
By T.D. Jagadesan
The new constituency boundaries recently fixed by the
Delimitation Commission have without intending to do so liberated the Congress
--- and its rivals --- from the phantom of mid-term polls. The eight or so
months the Election Commission of India (FCI) will need to graft the changes on
to the Lok Sabha map, in effect, means about eight months without the big
election.
How will the political parties use the reprieve? Looking at
the Congress’s current form, it should sink into further inaction. Even without
the mid-term threat, the farthest approximate date of the 15th
General Election is April-May 2009 – just a year away. But so far the Congress
has betrayed none of the get-up-go visibility that is there in its rivals.
Instead, there is about it a sense of resignation of an approaching defeat ---
so much at odds with its status as a ruling party with some achievements to its
credit.
Consider the three existing political formations, the
Congress-led United Progressive Alliance, the Bharatiya Janata Party-led
National Democratic Alliance, and the yet to concretize third alternative. Of
the lot, the first looks a loser already and the second a winner already. The
third alternative appears placed midway.
In truth, all three are shaky, and have much to thank the Election
Commission for. The Congress has a theoretically speaking stable alliance but
is so fuzzy about everything --- its programme, its vision, its leader, its achievements
and the state of its alliance ---- that it will surprise no one should the
winner of 2004 transmogrify into the loser of 2009.
The BJP’s dazzle and show hide the fact that it leads a rump
alliance. The third alternative’s possible partners are all very important and
high-profile but how, when, and with what common programme? Whether the
Samajwadi’s Mulayam Singh-Amar Singh duo, the Telugu Desam’s Chandrababu Naidu,
the Indian National Lok Dal’s Om Prakash Chautala and the Left parties will
unite is hard to tell.
The BJP, always first into action, and constantly first with
propaganda, has leapt ahead of the competition with some deft footwork. The Party
revels in the meet the President, meet the Chief Election Commissioner, issue
statements, announce yatras, unveil
portraits, plan strategy sessions, hold Party meetings, hold NDA meetings et
al. No one knows better than its peripatetic leaders how to cram the day with
activity.
The BJP and the Congress must have opposite DNA codes. The
Congress can barely wake up. The BJP is full of beans. When the latter was just
out of power, it plunged heartily into factional fights. Now it is as heartily
into cozy togetherness. Indeed, through the time the Congress has been in
power, it is the BJP that has hogged the headlines --- first for its many
troubles, and lately, for the resolve with which it has fixed the troubles.
Today the Party that fought endlessly has a Prime
Ministerial candidate behind whom the cadre stands in apparent solidarity, its
leadership is gung ho after winning Gujarat and
has the RSS as its moral guardian. Together the package is of a Party driven,
united and focused on the 2009 big fight. The new zeal had L.K. Advani
asserting recently that his Party would inflict upon the Congress its “worst
defeat in history.”
All very impressive but a lot of the buzz is premature,
self-created and very BJP like. About a month ago, the Saffron Party spearheaded
a meeting of the NDA, which hogged television and print news. And for good
reason: The NDA constituents, overcoming their earlier reservations, had
unanimously backed Advani for Prime Minister.
The problem was with the accompanying visuals. The NDA that
posed with Advani seemed a sadly emaciated version of the NDA that captured
over 300 seats in the 1999 Lok Sabha election. Only three alliance partners
could be spotted in the picture --- the Akali Dal’s Prakash Singh Badal, the
Biju Janata Dal’s Naveen Patnaik and the Janata Dal (United)’s Nitish Kumar.
Some allies like the Shiv Sena, were possibly out of the
frame but still in the alliance. Even so, this was a vastly depleted stock
compared to the NDA’s 1999 magnificent peak. Not that this little matter
stopped the BJP’s beaming spokespersons. They claimed the presence at the meet
of “all our allies except Mamata Banerjee” and got away with it, too, judging
by the gushy media coverage of the event.
Since 2002, it has seen a virtual exodus from the NDA. Among
those that have deserted the BJP are Farooq Abdullah’s National Conference, Chautala’s
Indian National Lok Dal, Ram Vilas Paswan’s Lok Jan Shakti, Karunanidhi’s Dravida
Munnetra Kazhagam and its State-allies, Ajit Singh’s Rashtriya Lok Dal, Sukh
Ram’s Himachal Vikas Congress and the Indian Federal Democratic Party.
The NDA’s outside prop, Chandrababu Naidu’s Telugu Desam has
broken away while the Trinamool Congress seems on the verge of quitting the
alliance. All this not counting the many one-man State parties that habitually
align with the ruling side.
The Congress too has had its share of alliance problems. Chandrasekhar
Rao’s Telangana Rashtra Samiti and Vaiko’s MDMK have exited the UPA. Mulayam's
Samajwadi and Mayawati’s BSP, which at one time lined up behind the Congress,
are as good as not there thanks to the Congress’ constant flip-flop between the
two Parties.
Of the rest, Laloo’s Rashtriya Janata Dal, Paswan’s Lok Jan
Shakti Party and Karunanidhi’s DMK won the maximum seats they could in the 2004
election. The DMK alliance won 25 of the 25 seats it consented, the RJD – LJP
alliance 26 of 34 seats it contested and Sharad Pawar’s NCP is unlikely to be
able to repeat its 22 seat tally. Besides, it can just tolerate its senior
partner (Congress). The People’s Democratic Party and the Congress are in an
equally loveless relationship.
What this adds up to is a delicate coalition held together
more by the glue of power than by chemistry and a sense of common purpose. The
constituents, with their history of broken commitments and relationships, can
head in any direction come 2009.
What should the Congress have done? What can it still do? Many
things. First, ensure that the partners have a stake in staying the course.
Second, dispel the confusion on the Prime Ministerial question. True, the
Opposition needs to declare its Prime Ministerial candidate, not the ruling
party. However, a ruling party that might change its leader without evident
compulsions calls attention to its incapacity.
Specially, when that possible new leader is a young and
untested member of the dynasty, Rahul Gandhi, it also calls attention to the
Party’s bankruptcy. Third, the Grand
Dame of Politics needs to hit the streets, go to town on its achievements,
re-jig the Party apparatus, send the best leaders there are to the States, and
do so unitedly and cohesively.
But look at the Congress record. The UPA has put in place
three legislations acclaimed as historic --- the National Rural Employment
Guarantee Act (NREGA), the Right to information Act and the Schedule Tribes and
Other Traditional Forest Dwellers (Recognition of Forest Rights) Act. Each is
in force defying internal sabotage. The ownership of the NREGA has moved from
the Congress to the Opposition. On the foreign policy front too, the civil
nuclear deal with the United
States was a coup of sorts that the Congress
disowned before the Left parties.
In 2004, Sonia Gandhi stitched up an alliance that went on
to win. Today, the Congress cannot spring that surprise. As the ruling party,
it must define its record in office. Instead, it is mired in confusion over
whether or not to push Rahul Gandhi. Indira Gandhi earned her spurs; Sonia
Gandhi has proven her worth. Rahul Gandhi cannot talk meritocracy and rely on
aristocracy.
This is where the BJP comes in. The Party suffered a
stunning defeat in May 2004, watched the NDA crumble and today has to virtually
start from scratch. Yet its motivation seems all the greater for the challenge.
Last month, it has re-engaged with the AIADMK leader Jayalalitha. A core team
is also prospecting for other allies.
The road is far from easy. Parties such as the TDP, the LJP
and the Trinamool Congress need the Muslim vote more than they need the
Hindutva party. If the BJP fails, it will not be for want of trying.
The Congress should learn a lesson from the 2004 poll when
the BJP’s shrill propaganda led it to a crushing defeat. The Congress then was
the tortoise to the BJP’s hare. But today, the slow and steady tortoise must
have a strategy to win the race. --- INFA
(Copyright,
India News and Feature Alliance)
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