Economic Highlights
New Delhi,
7 December 2015
Warming Hits S Asia
‘CLIMATE FINANCE’ CRITICAL
By Shivaji Sarkar
India, despite the threat of a severe
economic crisis due to the changing climate, has taken the most inclusive stand
at the Conference of Parties (CoP-21) at Paris.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s stern warning to the affluent countries having
“luxury of choices” should sharply reduce emissions is indeed welcome. Those
who have polluted the nation for over 200 years cannot block the progress of
the poor nations.
India has vowed to pursue a 33 to 35 per
cent reduction to the emissions intensity of its economy by 2030 from 2005
levels. However, a large coalition of developing countries in the talks say it
is unfair to expect them to stop using cheap, abundant coal and other fossil
fuels unless the rich nations give them enough and technology to help them
build cleaner energy systems.
Way back in 2010, the rich nations agreed to deliver $100
billion a year by 2020 in so-called climate finance, from public and private
sources, and the OECD recently reported that at least $62 billion was provided
in 2014. But India and
other countries have questioned this figure and insist the Paris accord must require wealthy countries
to deliver more than $100 billion a year after 2020. The ADB states that South Asia needs $73 billion every year till 2100 to
adapt to the negative impacts of climate change.
Developed
countries are balking at including a specific figure in the agreement, arguing
that today’s governments cannot be responsible for setting budgets so far
ahead.
Undeniably, the change in climate is a major global
challenge. “But we in India
face consequences. We see the risk to our farmers. Rising oceans threaten 7500
km of coastline and 1300 islands. We worry about the glaciers that feed our
rivers and nurture our civilization”, stated Modi. He had to give a rebuff to
the US Secretary of State
John Kerry’s comments that India
has been more cautious, a little more restrained, in its embrace of this new
paradigm, and it is a challenge.
If at all, India
is not cautious but definitely concerned. The Asian Development Bank (ADB)
study ‘Assessing the Costs of the Climate Change and Adaptation in South Asia’ shows
that there is a lot more danger to India and its South Asian
neighbours than one can perceive. Its newly released data suggests that South Asia could be particularly badly hit if the world
continues on its current fossil-fuel intensive path.
Climate change impacts stand to slash up to 9 per cent off
the South Asian economy every year by the end of this century, and the human
and financial toll could be even higher if the damage from floods, droughts and
other extreme weather events is included. The recent-most case in India
being that of Chennai which is inundated by floods.
The report predicts that by 2050, the collective economy of
six countries—Bangladesh, Bhutan, India,
the Maldives, Nepal and Sri Lanka -- will lose an average
1.8 per cent of its annual gross domestic product, rising to 8.8 per cent by
2100.
India alone would lose sizable farm
production as the globe warms up due to excess or fall in rainfall and various
other natural disasters as well as reduced energy production from hydro-power.
This would affect India’s
goal to increase renewable energy generation. Loss of farm production is sadly
highlighted in the increasing number of farmers’ suicides in the country. .
A rise in average warming will increase energy requirements
for cooling but reduce the energy needed for warming. It will increase energy
demand for irrigation. Increases in intensity and frequency of extreme events such
as storms and sea level rise may cause more electrical system failures.
The ‘mission innovation’ launched at Paris to accelerate public and private global
clean energy novelty may also suffer. Therefore, Modi has assured to cooperate
with the US
so that “innovation is backed by means to make it accessible to all”.
But the big question is whether this is the solution? Since
the Industrial Revolution, carbon emissions (CO2) from
burning of fossil fuels have been building up in the atmosphere. The
concentration of CO2 is now approaching 400 parts per million
(ppm), up from 280 ppm prior to 1800. If we were to stop all
emissions immediately, the CO2 concentration would also start
to decline to the level of 1980 by 2300 AD. In the next 300 years, nature may
recoup the last 30 years of our emissions, says scientists.
So what India
wants and what is to happen is not easy. The central bone of contention has long
thwarted climate talks: the divide between wealthy countries that grew rich
from burning fossil fuels after the industrial revolution and poor countries
trying to emulate their prosperity.
A large coalition of developing countries in the talks says
it is unfair to expect them to stop using cheap, abundant coal and other fossil
fuels unless rich nations give them abundant money and technology to help them
build cleaner energy systems.
So if the rich are
holding out, why should John Kerry ask poorer countries to sign a global deal
requiring five-year review periods and other measures wanted by richer countries?
There is also
widespread recognition that emissions reduction pledges fall short of the
action needed to prevent dangerous levels of global warming above 2 degrees.
The group Climate Action Tracker says
even if everything is on track, the world would warm by 2.7 degrees by
2100. The US-based group Climate Interactive put
the figure at 3.5 degrees.
Developing countries are set to absorb much of the losses
caused by climate change, various studies have pointed out. Rating agencies are
beginning to factor these effects into their assessments.
Inflation is likely to rise over time, driven by rising food
prices and an increase in the cost of energy. Although the climate of some
countries is predicted to become more accommodative to agricultural yields in
the medium term, the long-run implications of rising temperatures are likely to
reduce global crop yields. It is also likely to have an impact on industrial
activities as large number of people would be afflicted by poverty and less
purchasing power.
The concern and
firm stand of India
is justified. It affects 1.43 billion people of South Asia. The economic cost
is too high. The battle for a fairer deal would continue to the next climate
summit. But any leeway to the rich would severely hit the poor not only here
but the world over. ---INFA
(Copyright,
India News and Feature Alliance)
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