PAKISTAN POLL SPECIAL

New Delhi, 19 February 2008

Pak Poll: Setback To Democracy

MUSHARRAF STILL HOLDS KEY

By Sreedhar

Before analyzing the Pakistani elections held on 18 February 2008, three factors need to be noted. First, the much-anticipated sympathy wave on Benazir’s assassination to her Party PPP withered away in no time. The reasons too are obvious. The top leadership of the PPP entered into an informal understanding with Musharraf even after Benazir’s death in January 2008. In fact, Benazir herself entered into a power-sharing agreement with the military, like in 1988, before returning to Pakistan.

At another level, the Pakistani politicians including Benazir Bhutto were sufficiently discredited by the media and the Armed Forces. The best example was the fight between Nawaz Sharif when he was the Prime Minister and the judiciary. In that bitter fight the arbitration was given to the Armed Forces. This by itself demonstrated the pre-dominance of the Pakistani Armed Forces in the country’s politics.

Therefore, in the just concluded elections most of the people who favored the return of democracy stayed indoors on the plea that there is very little choice among the contesting candidates in terms of improving the governance.

Second, for the past decade or so, we have been hearing that the radical Islamic groups in Pakistan are against any type of elected Government to an Islamic country like Pakistan. They even threatened that they will not allow elections to take place in a peaceful manner. During the past four weeks the people killed in electoral violence reached a three-digit figure and sent a clear signal to the advocates of democracy. The radical groups also furthered their cause by selecting some candidates from the North West Frontier Province (NWFP) in Baluchistan to further their cause in the event of the National Assembly elections being held in time.

Such an approach from the radical groups suited the ruling elite very well. According to the preliminary estimates put out by the Election Commission of Pakistan, the percentage of voters was as low as 35%. This low percentage of turnout means only those who were allowed to vote by the President and his men were encouraged to come out openly and cast their votes. In the process, President Musharraf will be the key person to allow a coalition Government to assume power in the coming weeks.

It is too early to predict which way the alignments will take place. There is some speculation in the Pakistani media that there maybe a coalition between Bhutto’s PPP and Sharif’s PML (N) and this may give absolute majority for them to form the Government. But, after the election, it became too obvious that even if the two Parties merge and work on a common minimum program, it is highly unlikely that they will get absolute majority.

In such a situation, the jockeying for power will be largely revolving around which way the President will exercise his preferences. This means the Pakistani Armed Forces will continue to dominate Pakistani politics for some more time to come.

Lastly, Pakistan is basically a feudal society where even after 60 years of Independence a viable middle class has not emerged. The Zamindari and the Jagirdari system in a feudal fashion is in operation even today. The population is divided into the rich and the poor with the rich constituting less than five per cent of the total population. The late 70’s assessment of the Pakistani polity that 22 families run the whole country seems to be valid even today.

The so-called civil society constitutes a microscopic minority confined to places like Lahore and Islamabad and acts as the show pieces for foreign observers. People like me, who have been following Pakistan for almost four decades now, feel the Dawn newspaper is not the reflection of Pakistani politics but The News, The Nation and the Urdu press like Nawai - e – Waqt illustrate the mood of the nation. Therefore, the highly publicized American involvement in the return of democracy to Pakistan is being seen by Pakistani’s as a part of the ongoing Christian Jewish war against the Islamic world.

In these circumstances, the 18th February 2008 elections can be seen as a major setback to the return of democracy to Pakistan. It is not going to undermine in any way the importance of the Armed Forces in the polity. The General-cum-politician Musharraf is going to rule Pakistan for sometime to come.

The immediate question that rises in this context is what will be the future of Pakistan? Will there be some normalcy in that strife-torn country in the coming months? What will be the future of the radical Islamic groups in the emerging political scenario in Pakistan?

For all these questions the answer seems to lie to what extent the extra regional powers like the US are going to support Gen Musharraf.  The General knows that as long as there is a threat from the radical Islamic groups he is indispensable to the US and its allies.

According to many Pakistani observers the problem of the radical Islamic groups in Pakistan is unlikely to come to an end so easily because a section of the State is in collusion with these groups. Some observers even feel that terrorism and violence has become a part and parcel of the statecraft in that country.

If we go by the Indian experience, terrorism and violence started in October 1947 when the Pakistani Armed Forces along with a bunch of Lashkars attacked Jammu & Kashmir. Therefore the future that is emerging in Pakistan clearly indicates that radical elements are not going to be liquidated completely but would be advised to take a low profile and continue their operations.

The organizations like the Al-Qaeda and the Taliban and their sister organizations like the Lashkar-e-Taiyaba  and the Jaish-e–Mohammed are going to be active in their own way giving tactical support to people like Musharraf and continue their war to establish a Caliphate in and around Pakistan and Afghanistan to begin with.

The Pakistani elections were being closely monitored by the mandarins in South Block. According to various assessments it appears that New Delhi visualized a scenario that there would be a low turnout of the electorate and the verdict would be fractured. Therefore, like many other Pakistani well wishers it not only kept all its options open but kept the lines of communication with various groups intact.

The Prime Minister's casual remark that he is not interested in furthering the troubles of Gen Musharraf by itself indicates that the political establishment in India realized that they have to deal with the General in Islamabad even though he is a retired General. --- INFA

(Copyright India News & Feature Alliance)