Political Diary

New Delhi, 21 August 2015

Indo-Pak Ties

CAUGHT IN A TIME-WRAP

By Poonam I Kaushish

“One has to cultivate a certain amount of hypocrisy to be a peace-loving human being.” Tomi Ungerer’s observation seems to hit the nail on the head when it comes to Indo-Pak relations. It was a no brainer that the two National Security Advisors Ajit Doval-Sartaj Aziz talks, if one could call it that, would be called off on some pretext at the penultimate time. And they were. New Delhi wanted discussions on terror, Islamabad Kashmir.

Plainly, both were only interested in showcasing to the world at large, specially US that they were willing to talk, than in actually talking. Yet both played out the predictable cat and mouse game, reveling in talking at each other and playing to the gallery for the benefit of their respective domestic audiences. Quibbling over semantics, whether “outstanding issues” encompasses Kashmir. 

Besides, from New Delhi’s perspective the NSAs’ were adept only for talking on their area of expertise, terror, certainly not Kashmir. After all, Aziz is a minor cog in the all-powerful troika: Army, ISI and Establishment and could serve as only a messenger. And Kashmir had been discussed between Modi-Sharif at Ufa last month.

Add to this, both sides are rigid about their respective positions. New Delhi refuses to budge on Kashmir and Islamabad has one vital national interest: Kashmir. Any novice who is adept in foreign policy manouveres would have told one a leopard never changes his spot!

As matters stand, there is nothing concrete to suggest that Islamabad is ready to address New Delhi’s ‘core’ concerns on terrorism. Nor is there any indication that Pakistan has changed its antagonistic approach to India. On the contrary, Pakistan’s army violated the ceasefire agreement along the Indo-Pak border over 91 times since the Modi-Sharif talks in Ufa last month.  .

Moreover, Pakistan has a history of living in denial. Pakistan’s two-track policy - clandestine operations to weaken India while simultaneously appearing to seek a durable peace. Each time India is attacked and it is established beyond doubt that the perpetrators were either directly or indirectly linked to Pakistan, the Pakistan state exercises the clause of plausible deniability saying these are non-state actors and the Pakistani State does not “support” such acts.

For the ruling troika seeped in military tradition along-with its jihadist proxies, the ‘core’ issue of Kashmir is an article of faith. In fact, the very creation of Pakistan rests on the foundations of Kashmir. From Bhutto’s “bleeding India with a 1000 cuts,” down Kargil inclusions to Mumbai’s 26/11 deep distrust and lack of confidence is apparent between the warring neighbours ravaged by history.

Islamabad would have us believe that non-State actors are at work in Kashmir, in the attack on Parliament, in the Mumbai and Delhi blasts, even in Kargil War and in Udhampur and Gurdaspur. After every attack our intelligence agencies and police collect evidence and send dossiers upon dossiers to Pakistan only to be told that the “evidence” is not enough.

In addition, insecure Pakistan faces twin dilemmas of international marginalization due its political and economic instability and India’s political stability and growing economy. For Pakistani fed on the belief, that ‘accepting the status quo with India is defeat’, has resulted in a perceived ideological perspective that it has to be at war to stand up and be counted.

This is forcing the Pakistani army to take calculated military risks against the back drop of its nuclear capability as a manifestation of its continued struggle which it must continue to provoke India. Add to this, due to it being a failed State a fundamentally dissatisfied Establishment seeks to increase its prestige through spread of its ideology and religion in pursuit of its revisionist policies.

What then explains Indian leadership’s penchant for extending the proverbial hand of friendship to Pakistan despite knowing well that they could be burning their fingers? Does somehow our leadership too believe that we have “limited options” when it comes to dealing with Pakistan?

Giving peace a chance is fine, but each time we ended up being betrayed. In today’s geo-strategic political reality pragmatism dictate real politic. The Government and its security agencies need to remain ever vigilant, be one step ahead of Pakistan and its jihadis vis-à-vis terror attacks and cross-border terrorism. It needs to get a no-nonsense message across to Islamabad that ignoring New Delhi’s concerns would be by at its own peril. About time we punished them.

Undeniably, the fog of war is a reality even during peace time along the troubled Indo-Pak border. Simply because Islamabad does not share India's desire for friendly relations. Coupled with its reluctance to bring the Mumbai-attack masterminds to justice thereby emboldening it to commit acts of aggression. Hafiz Saeed, who continues to preach terrorism against India.

Islamabad needs to do a lot more than just generating artificial illusions. It has to match its words with deeds. At the same time, India must come to terms with the fact that Army and ISI are opposed to any normalisation of bilateral relationship based on a practical and pragmatic resolution of long-standing disputes.

Alongside, the jihadis too are against any reconciliation between India and Pakistan. Thus, even as the Prime Minister trudges the lonely peace road he should realize that good intentions alone cannot transform ties.

Modi realizes only to well that so long as the hawkish Pakistan army continues to call the shots, peace with India would be a mirage. Yet in today’s geo-strategic political reality pragmatism dictate real politic the bedrock of which is implementing a ‘zero tolerance to provocations’ policy.

As matter stands today, both sides continue to be wary of each other given the deep mistrust and lack of confidence.  Yet the two have not rejected further dialogue. Even when it and is no more than a repletion of known positions. Islamabad needs to do a lot more before the next round, instead of chasing a mirage.

The bottom line? India needs to be reassured on its terror concerns for the relationship to move to the next level. Islamabad must unravel the full conspiracy behind the Mumbai attack, deny sanctuary to all terrorist groups that operate from its soil, and handover Hafiz Saeed to India. The taste of the pudding is in the eating.

What next? For more than 50 years Indo-Pak ties are caught in a vicious time wrap. Given the stakes the many players, the variety of acts and the shifting sands of geo-strategic political equations, there are many ifs and buts which do not make a whole. Plainly, both India-Pakistan need to understand the bitter reality that even as we have a choice for striking friendships, we cannot choose our neighbours.

New Delhi needs to stay engaged with those who rule Pakistan. Be it via political-security back channels or by high military levels contacts. India wants peace but will not bow down to provocations, come what may. 

Ultimately, before any thing else Islamabad has to come to terms with not only forgetting Kashmir but erase its deeper malady – hatred of India. Clearly there is little scope for talking with a neighbour who is busy lobbing grenades at you. The ball remains in Pakistan’s court. ----INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)