Political Diary

New Delhi, 18 July 2015

Modi-Sharif Stale’mate’

NO MELT IN DISTRUST

By Poonam I Kaushish

Ever wonder why a big deal is made of the sour, stale and bitter Indo-Pak ties? All in the hopelessly futile hope-against-hope that a rainbow will spring out of the thunderous, dark clouds billowing across the border, vitiated by Pakistan’s daily incursions across Kashmir’s Line of Control (LoC). But like a million times in the past, each time Einstein is proved right: To expect different results from the same experiment would be foolish!

Of course, the Modi-Nawaz Sharif meeting on the sidelines of the SCO Summit at Ufa was a given, obviously at the prodding of Washington and Beijing. They even issued a bland statement, the highlight of which was the dreaded K-word was missing. But if one expected that the hour-long guftagu would pick up the threads of a frayed relationship and help “reduce the trust deficit’’ it was not to be.

Barely, had the meeting ended, that Islamabad first accused New Delhi of sending a spy drone, then it made clear it did not buy its denial even as cross-border shelling resumed with a vengeance killing ruthlessly. In the last week alone, over 11 violations have taken place along the Indo-Pak border.

Questionably, how many more incidents will it take for New Delhi to realize that its walking the extra step is getting us nowhere with our recalcitrant neighbour? Hasn’t the time come for New Delhi to comprehend that Islamabad refuses to give up its confrontational mindset of waging a “thousand wars”? What use a dialogue when Islamabad when it stonewalls India’s demands on 26/11?

The prom­ise of re­sump­tion of in­sti­tu­tion­al­ized di­a­logue has re­mained just that — a prom­ise. There is no pos­si­bil­ity of a re­newed com­pos­ite di­a­logue, which was stopped by the UPA gov­ern­ment af­ter the 2008 Mum­bai at­tacks, just yet.

As matters stand, there is nothing concrete to suggest that Pakistan has changed its antagonistic approach to India. Nor is there any indication that Islamabad is ready to address New Delhi’s ‘core’ concerns on terrorism. On the contrary, it has not only restarted the jihad factory across the border, but the Pakistan Army Chief, like his predecessors, has innumerable times declared that he considers India, and not Taliban, to be the enemy and existential threat to Pakistan. The recent violence in Kashmir bears this out. 

Asserted a senior South Block official, “Remember, Islamabad is no pushover, it needs to answer some tough questions. Are they doing enough on LeT, JeM and Hizbul Mujahideen? The Mumbai trials? On Lakhvi, Saeed et al all who remain a serious threat to India”?

Think. Peace with Pakistan has been given a shot by every single Prime Minister but all attempts have failed. Primarily, not because they lacked conviction but because the Indo-Pak issue is far too complex. For the ruling troika seeped in military tradition along-with its jihadist proxies, the ‘core’ issue of Kashmir is an article of faith.

In fact, the very creation of Pakistan rests on the foundations of Kashmir. From Bhutto’s “bleeding India with a 1000 cuts,” down Kargil inclusions to Mumbai’s 26/11 deep distrust and lack of confidence is apparent between the warring neighbours ravaged by history.

Besides, it is not in the realm of impossibility that their agenda is to keep New Delhi permanently off balance, damning India for not talking and damning it if it tries to.

Undoubtedly, New Delhi’s hunger to build bridges with Islamabad appears to have blinded the Government to the web of deceit spun by its duplicitous neighbour. In this troika of power, Sharif has to play second fiddle to Big Daddies Army and ISI.

India must come to terms with the fact that Army and ISI are opposed to any normalisation of bilateral relationship based on a practical and pragmatic resolution of long-standing disputes. Alongside, the jihadis too are against any reconciliation between India and Pakistan. Thus, even as the Prime Minister trudges the lonely peace road he should realize that good intentions alone cannot transform ties.

What next? True, South Block has no illusions about any dramatic transformation in Islamabad’s policy. However, it needs an all-encompassing and multi-pronged strategy to deal with it. The Government and its security agencies need to remain ever vigilant, be one step ahead of the jihadis and act promptly vis-a-vis cross-border terrorism.

So long as the hawkish Pakistan army continues to call the shots, peace with India would be a mirage. Modi realizes only to well that in today’s geo-strategic political reality pragmatism dictate real politic. New Delhi needs an all-encompassing and multi-pronged strategy to deal with Islamabad. Happily, unlike the erstwhile Manmohan Singh Government, Modi is implementing a ‘zero tolerance to provocations’ policy.

It needs to get a no-nonsense message across to Islamabad that ignoring New Delhi’s concerns would be by at its own peril. Pakistan needs to understand that India’s patience should not be mistaken for weakness. Given that it has paid the price for misreading India thrice over the Indo-Pak wars.

The bottom line? Islamabad must unravel the full conspiracy behind the Mumbai attack, deny sanctuary to all terrorist groups that operate from its soil, put the trial of Lakhvi and 6 others on a fast track and handover Hafiz Saeed to India. As also rein JuD leader Hafiz Makki. The taste of the pudding is in the eating.

On its part, the Government and its security agencies need to remain ever vigilant, be one step ahead of Pakistan, its jihadis and take a swift, sharp and effective response backed by controlled escalation to Pakistan’s provocations and cross-border terrorism.

As matter stands today, both sides continue to be wary of each other. Deep mistrust and lack of confidence is apparent.  Yet the two have not rejected further dialogue. Even when it and is no more than a repletion of known positions. Islamabad needs to do a lot more before the next round, if there is one, than just generating artificial illusions.

True, there is no magic wand to erase 60 years of distrust, hatred and enmity. India needs to be reassured that terror acts and ceasefire violations will be stopped for the relationship to move to the next level. There is little scope for talking peace and friendship with a neighbour who is busy throwing stones at you and even sniping.

So far Pakistan’s track record has been woeful. It wrecked the Lahore pact by scripting the Kargil inclusion. Agra was stillborn. The 26/11 trial is going nowhere. Clearly, the time has come for India to reject the double standards that are prevalent in Pakistan's attitude and take some hard decisions.

Pakistan needs to understand that India’s patience is wearing thin. Modi has made plain: Cross the red line and pay for it. If Islamabad wants friendly relations with India, it should abandon its adventurism on the borders, come to senses and engage diplomatically with India. There are no short cuts.

India wants durable peace though alone it cannot guarantee non-escalation. Our Pakistan policy cannot operate in a perceived vacuum of goodwill and expectations of better ties. Islamabad has to match its words with deeds. Or else, the chill will only end up as frozen! ---- INFA 

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)