Events & Issues

New Delhi, 1 June 2015 

Rising Heat Wave

SEVERE WARNING FOR INDIA

By Dhurjati Mukherjee

Rising global temperature has obviously been linked to climate change. As per records, 2010 was possibly the hottest year since weather records began in 1901 with annual temperature being around 0.93⁰ Celsius higher than the long-term average (1961-1990). IMD officials had announced the record heat was a continuation of the trend in the past decade that can only be attributed to global warming.      

However, in 2015 India has been experiencing the fifth deadliest heat wave in the world and the second in the country with over 2000 people having been killed in States like Andhra Pradesh, Telengana, U.P and Odisha. The deadliest heat wave recorded was in 1998 in which over 2500 people died. However, according to experts death tolls from heat waves are quite difficult to estimate since excess heat is not listed as the primary cause of death in cases where the victim has a pre-existing ailment such as heart or lung diseases.          

Earlier, the deadliest heat wave was in Europe in 2003 when over 70, 000 people were estimated to have died followed by Russia in 2010 (over 55, 000 deaths). The spate of heat waves, which are normally witnessed during the April-June pre-monsoon period, may be linked to excessive emissions charged in the atmosphere resulting in climate change when the mean temperature increases by 1.8⁰ C to 2⁰ C above normal.  This year also the arid regions of India, specially Andhra Pradesh and Telengana, are reported to have witnessed around 2⁰ C rise in temperature compared to 0.85 globally, a phenomenon which weather scientists has found to be extremely alarming           

As per a report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ‘Special Report on Managing Risks of Extreme Events & Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation’ compiled over two years by 220 scientists, and released in November 2011, found the world to get ten times hotter in the next 90 years due to high greenhouse gas emission scenario caused by human activity. It pointed out: “For the high emissions scenario, it is likely that the frequency of hot days will increase by a factor of 10 in most regions of the world”.  The prediction made may become a reality much earlier.         

The report contained stark warnings for developing countries, in particular, which are likely to be worst affected in part because of their geography but also because they are less well prepared to tackle extreme weather conditions in their infrastructure and have less economic resilience than developed nations. But the developed world will not be unscathed – heavier bursts of rainfall, heat waves and droughts are likely to take their toll. The report aptly stated: “It is likely that the frequency of heavy precipitation or the proportion of heavy rainfall from heavy falls will increase in the 21^st century over many areas of the globe. This is particularly the case in high latitudes and tropical regions and in winter in the northern and mid latitudes.”

The rise in temperature was confirmed by findings of the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), government funded research centre at Pune. According to its scientists with those from France and US, temperatures in the country are to rise by 2⁰ C by the middle of the century and 3.5⁰ to 4⁰ C by its end. These have been arrived at based on scientific and mathematical formulas used in tandem to predict the future climate pattern. One such model suggested temperatures could rise by as much as 6⁰ C by the end of the century.      

A draft paper, released a year ago by NASA’s Goddard Institute of Space Studies, reaffirmed that overall global warming has held through the decade, rebuffing claims by a small section of scientists that the trend is flattening. The paper ‘Current GISS Global Surface Temperature Analysis’ noted: “We conclude that global temperature continued to rise rapidly in the past decade …. That there has been no reduction in the global warming trend of 0.15-0.20 degrees C per decade that began in the late 1970s”.           

The Indian Meteorological Department’s data shows temperatures in the country are in harmony with global warming. The warming syndrome has affected the tropical countries, including India in various ways. The fourth IPCC report on climate change had pointed out that a temperature rise above 2 degrees Celsius from 1990 levels might not be ecologically sustainable.

The upper bound on temperature increase translates into upper bound on greenhouse gas emissions and the resultant effects that were outlined are: extreme weather conditions in most parts of the world; shifting wind and rainfall patterns making dry areas drier and wet areas wetter; acceleration of  emission rates of CO₂ due to industrialization, increased energy consumption, unsustainable agricultural practices and, of course, population growth; more hurricanes and floods forming now than a century ago, threatening millions of people along the world’s coastlines; ocean variability and glacier melting causing sea level rise resulting in inundation in areas nearer to the sea; killing of coral reefs faster, causing them to disappear twice as fast as rainforests on land; and deforestation and other forms of habitat destruction, pollution and poaching affecting animals, plants and of course human beings.

However, the most important consequences in India have been the increase in diseases and loss of production and productivity. As is agreed that a strong or medium El Nino is likely to substantially disrupt global food markets, increasing prices for staple foods and threatening lives and livelihoods in tropical countries. This year, with meteorologists predicting a weak monsoon in India at 93 per cent rainfall of the long-period average, El Nino is bound to have an effect in the tropical Pacific Ocean.  

Apart from food scarcity that may occur, an increase in various types of diseases because of direct and indirect effects of climate change may also affect large parts. In India (as also in most tropical countries), the rise in temperature is expected to spread malaria endemic in a much larger area while water scarcity (coupled with lack of sanitation) may lead to an increase in water-borne diseases.      

The nutrition status may also be affected as warming may affect crop productivity. Moreover the erratic rainfall pattern, increase in floods in some areas and droughts in others have resulted in an increase in the incidence of diseases, affecting mostly the poorer and the economically weaker sections of society.      

Managing climate change involves exhaustive exploration and discovery of organizational potential, business processes and options for greenhouse gas abatement through research and development. Adoption of the right strategy for mitigating long-term climate change risks need to be taken by countries like China and India. Meanwhile, India needs to adhere to its pledge that it will never allow the country’s per capita emissions to exceed the average per capita emissions of industrialized countries.       

Indeed, special efforts have to be made to identify and check climate change impacts on human health, water resources, coastal areas and agriculture as this is vital for the large segment of the country’s population. There is need to aggressively promote dryland farming, soil conservation methodologies, watershed management and other agricultural technologies to the farming community so that agricultural production is not hampered. In fact, there is need to formulate programmes and strategies for effective promotion and implementation in specific areas where it is needed and could be of use. There is no time to waste. ----INFA     

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