Events & Issues

New Delhi, 16 February 2015

Kejriwal’s Re-Election

IMPACT ON NATIONAL POLITICS

By Dr S Saraswathi

Practising politicians as well as political scientists are drawing lessons from the Delhi election that is believed to be a potential game-changer in Indian politics. People can legitimately expect Kejriwal’s “jadu” (magic) to start “operation cleaning” immediately after taking the oath of office - an operation which will be restricted to the capital region, but draw nationwide attention and produce a contagious effect in other States.

Though Delhi has a small Assembly (70 seats) and sends seven members to Lok Sabha and three to Rajya Sabha, the Government enjoys a special position by virtue of ruling the National Capital Territory (NCT). Its interaction with the Union Government is more frequent and closer compared to that of other States.

Delhi is presently accorded the status of partial statehood.  In the five topmost priorities of the AAP Government, full Statehood for the NCT comes second after Lok Pal bill. Incidentally, both BJP and  Congress Governments were also demanding full Statehood though presently re-thinking is on. A reference to the administration of the capital cities in other countries now seems relevant to them. The Lieutenant-Governor of Delhi is not the head of the Delhi government like Governors of States, but is an agent of the Union Government.

The Delhi Government does not have control over land, and law and order. With two crucial areas beyond its sphere of planning and action, AAP’s 70-point agenda and promise of common man’s government may face obstacles in implementation. 

Kejriwal’s Government has to maintain extraordinarily cordial relations with the Union Government of its most bitter opponent in the elections to embark on its election promises. It needs unquestioning support of the Central Government, and of the governments of Haryana and Uttar Pradesh for power and water to do what it promised. Coming days will show as a test case whether the much-awaited concept of cooperative federalism, favoured by the BJP, is on paper only or would be translated into practice.  Kejriwal’s re-election will open another chapter in Union-State relations.   

In the backdrop of the general discontent of the people with Kejriwal government’s resignation in 49 days, his return with astounding majority looks like a miracle. But, in politics, miracles do not happen. The inability of the parties/candidates to decipher the mood of the people, miscalculations, application of irrelevant strategies and usage of inappropriate expressions, language, and tools, and lack of professional insight into electoral politics combine to produce election results. The logical outcome is often misunderstood as election surprises.

By the same logic, it can be asserted that to predict AAP’s automatic expansion in all the States is but a wishful thinking in the absence of the necessary local political conditions.  

Nevertheless, the return of Kejriwal to the Delhi Secretariat is expected by many to create an impact on national politics and on State politics elsewhere. Delhi is not Tamil Nadu where the two national parties - the Congress and the BJP - are non-entities and have yielded place to State parties several decades ago. Hence, the massive mandate for Kejriwal in the NCT against well entrenched parties is expected to contain significant implications beyond local electoral politics. Moreover, AAP cannot be considered a State party of Delhi given its national ambitions and the national attention it has received.

AAP has shaken the support base of the Congress in Delhi and has wrested both votes and seats held by it for many years. A defeat that will further weaken the party in all the States. AAP’s position against the BJP is not this strong as BJP’s defeat may be partly due to some tactical errors. Still, it conveys a message that in politics, popularity of leaders and parties cannot be taken for granted even for a short period. Political waves, like waves in the ocean, advance and recede.

Both these parties are aware ever since the 2013 election that the rise      of AAP is the most serious threat to their political future. This fear itself is an outcome of the strong impact on national politics produced by Delhi election. 

The phenomenon of re-election in barely one year, and that too after an unpopular resignation, must have intensified the fear of the Congress and the BJP of a growing threat to their electoral prospects elsewhere in the country.

They have to change their strategies and adopt conciliatory approach.  BJP’s change in dealing with political crisis in Bihar is a result of its defeat in Delhi. BJP leaders now agree to floor test which is mandatory under judicial views. The party cannot afford to assume a posture of invincibility and tend to set terms for others. Its own allies – the Shiv Sena and Akali Dal are emboldened by the rise of AAP. “Broom-wielding AAP reduced BJP to dirt”, remarked SS leader despite being a partner in Maharashtra. That is alliance politics and the respect the partners hold for each other!

At the same time, non-Congress, non-BJP parties wanting to form what they call the “third front” may aspire for alliance with the AAP however odd it may appear. These parties have to introspect and find out how much faith they have in the ideology and principles of the AAP and whether they will fit into that.

AAP’s rise is as much a threat to non-Congress, non-BJP parties as to the Congress and the BJP. It has come as an “alternative” the country is seeking since 1980s.

For, for the present, AAP professes to be and is seen as a principled party, and its victory is received as reflection of courage of convictions. It is for this reason AAP and its leaders are subjected to scrutiny to detect discrepancies in their professions and practices. 

The party, no doubt, has regained people’s faith in larger measure by its hard work. Kejriwal himself has admitted that his entry into 2014 General election was a mark of arrogance. He advised his party men immediately after taking oath to “guard against arrogance, VIP culture, and misuse of power”. The party lacks organizational strength to nurture national ambitions.

He also sent out a message that the AAP was not spreading its wings, at least for the present. Evidently, he believes in consolidating his position before venturing into new pastures. Thus, the impact of AAP’s victory will be indirect and by derivations and not direct penetration into national or State politics.

AAP can spread its wings in other States only if committed, energetic and locally acceptable new faces take to politics and join this party. Its alliance with other parties is neither possible nor advisable at present. Merger with AAP is also remote as most small parties in India are one-man/woman shows or specific interest-based groups unwilling to widen their horizon or lose their individual identity. 

Time alone will show how AAP government is going to cope with other governments and parties and carry on its mission. It cannot afford to be an irritant to other authorities, nor allow others to be an irritant in its way. It is a testing time for political sagacity, a chance to open a new era.

The impact of AAP’s victory will be seen in the rise of motivated voluntary groups and organizations to cleanse politics. Much depends on AAP’s relations with NGOs and social movements like Anna Hazare’s. It has to remain and work within the framework of the Constitution. ---INFA

(Copyright, India News and  Feature Alliance)