Round The World
New Delhi, 11 February 2015
Great Chabahar Dream
INDIA MUST PLAY CARD WELL
By Ashok B Sharma
Easing of
sanctions against Iran by
the Western powers coupled with the drawdown of NATO forces from Afghanistan has prompted India to speed
up its development plans of the Chabahar port. It is an opportunity for India, which has so far been denied direct
overland link to Afghanistan
by Pakistan,
to take up the development of the port with all sincerity and commitment.
Further,
there is another concern for India.
It is China’s String of
Pearls in the Indian Ocean and more particularly its presence in the Gwadar
port in Pakistan.
Taking advantage of India’s
slackness in developing Chabahar port, Beijing
had also offered investment of about $78 million way back in July 2013 to
upgrade this deep sea port. Beijing has signed
an agreement with Pakistan
for a multi-billion dollar LNG pipeline and terminal. The same would be
extended from Gwadar to Iran
for gas import when sanctions on Tehran
are lifted. China
sees the prospects of linking Gwadar to Xinjiang roping in central Asian
republics.
Chabahar
port was part of a plan to develop infrastructure in eastern Iran for many
years. It was put on hold in 1984 and was revived in 2002 with India assuring
assistance. But as the US
mounted pressure on India
and efforts to toughen international sanctions against Iran, India practically ceased its
construction works at Chabahar port. However, when a Chinese State-owned
company took over the administration of the Gwadar port from a Singaporean firm
in 2012, India resumed its
work at Chabahar in the same year with partners from about 12 countries from
Central Asia, Gulf and Europe. Apart from $100
million investment, Chabahar, New Delhi has
already completed a 200 km road from Iran’s
border town Zaranj to Delaram in Afghanistan. It defied US
objections to transport 100,000 tonne wheat to Afghanistan through the port.
After the
new Government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi assumed office, India in
October last year decided to invest $85.21 million in developing the port.
Apart from this it also decided to invest an annual revenue expenditure of
$22.95 million to support the efforts.
But New Delhi needs to tackle
the geopolitics in the region with a view to go ahead with its Chabahar plans.
Following the agreement between P5+1 and Iran there has been only limited
easing of trade restrictions on strategic items such as petrochemical products,
aircraft parts and precious metals accounting for $7 billion of trade over six
months, subject to Tehran’s implementation of its assurances.
Even
after withdrawal of its troops from Afghanistan,
the US’
ambition in the region has not yet faded away. New Delhi,
therefore, faces the challenge of cleverly playing its diplomatic cards to win
the US
confidence. Washington had earlier pressurized
the Musharraf regime in Pakistan
to favour a Singaporean firm over the Chinese in operating the docks at the
Gwadar port. But later the Singaporean firm backed out paving the way for the
Chinese.
However, Washington is not pleased with the growing Chinese
presence in the region and its ambition to play an important role in Afghanistan.
Also, the US has no option
but to see a more proactive Indian involvement but at the same time it would
not like Iran
gaining importance in the region. India
also needs to strengthen its cooperation with Russia,
which is interested to play an effective role in Afghanistan.
Tehran feels the necessity of having a deep sea port at Chabahar
as its Bandar Abbas port on the Strait of Hormuz,
though strategically located, is unable to handle high traffic load. Bandar
Abbas which handles 85 per cent of Iran’s seaborne trade can only
receive 100,000 tonne cargo ships. As most shipping is conducted through
250,000 cargo vessels, the cargo is first offloaded in the UAE port and then
sent in smaller ships to dock in Bandar Abbas. This results in Tehran’s outgo of hundreds of millions of
dollars to the UAE. Tehran also faces the
possibility of the UAE closure of this facility in case of a conflict between it
and Iran
or GCC countries and their western allies. Tehran
is also conscious of the presence of the US naval patrol in the area.
Similarly,
Pakistan is interested in
developing Gwadar as Karachi
port is already heavily loaded with serious congestion from commercial fishing,
civil and military shipping. It also fears that Indian Navy may target Karachi port in case of a
conflict. China has stepped
in to gain advantage in the Indian Ocean.
The
distance between Chabahar and Gwadar is only 72 km. Both these ports with
appropriately planned road and rail connectivity can offer trade facilities to
landlocked central Asian countries and even extend the facilities to Gulf
countries, Russia and Europe.
But
regarding implementation of the works, Chabahar stands at a more advantage
position than that in Gwadar. Gwadar is among the worst under developed
districts in Pakistan.
The local Baluchis are up in arms against this mega projects and this has led
to the killings of Chinese engineers. The Balochistan National Party-Mengal,
Baloach National Front, Baloach Republican Party and militant organisations such
as Balochistan Liberation Front, Balochistan Liberation Army and Balochistan
Republican Army are among those who oppose the deal with China. This
situation has delayed the work at Gwadar project.
Comparatively,
the Chabahar project is more or less hassle-free. The proposed road and rail
link bypasses Pakistan and
connects with Afghanistan.
However, its success will depend on the security situation in
Sistan-Balochistan province where it is located and subsequently in the rail
and road links in Afghanistan
that connects to central Asia. However, Iran has been
successful in capping any possible insurgency in Sistan-Balochistan.
However, India stands to benefit much from the Chabahar
project, not only in terms of its trade connectivity with Afghanistan, Central Asia
and beyond but also in terms of easier access to oil and gas in the region. India and Iran has also planned to establish
direct shipping between Chabahar and Mumbai and Kandla. The proposed
North-South and East-West corridors and rail links will further facilitate
trade.
Finally,
Indian should take up the Chabahar project with utmost sincerity and commitment
and wisely play its cards in the geopolitics of the region.--INFA
(Copyright,
India News and Feature Alliance)
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