Political Diary

New Delhi, 15 November 2014

BJP-Shiv Sena Splits Ville

AATA MAJHI SATAKLI OR BLUSTER

By Poonam I Kaushish

This is akin to a Rubik puzzle which challenges logic. That too, after being coochie-cooing bed partners to a bitter splits ville in their silver jubilee anniversary year. Yes, I am talking about the Hindutva cohorts in Maharashtra and the Centre, BJP and Shiv Sena. Raising a moot point: Why? Have the Parties and their leaders lost it? Or is it a calculated gamble?

Undeniably, it has everything to do with the fact the BJP led by President Amit Shah and Prime Minister Modi preferred to take a calculated gamble and go solo in the recent Maharashtra Assembly polls. Ably assisted by the Sonia’s Congress and Pawar’s NCP divorce on election eve and dragged down by the incumbency quotient, in disarray with no time to regroup. Resulting in a five-cornered contest, giving the BJP a leg up.

Of course, Sena’s Uddhav Thackeray too presented his partner a perfect fait accomplice to take a walk. According to leaders in the know, who sends an immature, arrogant and cocky 24-year old to negotiate the tricky delicate seat-sharing negotiations? More so, as ties between the BJP’s new power dispensation with Uddhav is at best formal. Remember, Modi and Shah “suffered” Sena’s founder Tiger Bal Thackeray but having to hold parleys with his grandson Aditya was simply not acceptable.

Asserted a senior BJP leader, “The ties were getting strained as Sangh’s senior leaders felt slighted for not getting the respect and warmth they deserved. While we lumped Bal Thackeray’s Big Brother aggressive leadership, his son too wanted deferential treatment and the Chief Ministership forgetting that we occupied top place in national politics.”

Moreover, Modi was clear that the Sena was an albatross round his neck and hated playing second fiddle but stuck together, despite cold vibes, to come to power. Not only did the two allies complement each other but the Sena’s mass base in Maharashtra’s cities was a major plus. Also, while the RSS provided the “brains” the Sena’s youth brought “muscle” power. The equation worked well as the Shiv Sena-BJP alliance was essentially an OBC affair.  

But Modi’s ascendency in Delhi changed the power equations in one fell stroke. The Sangh Parivar now had muscle power and the Sena was suddenly regaled to playing junior partner.  Worse, the BJP extracted its pound of flesh for the slights over the years and dumped it.

Add to this, Modi who has an elephantine memory had not forgotten that the late Balasaheb had publicly plummed for Sushma Swaraj just prior to his formal anointment as the BJP’s Prime Ministerial candidate. That he had taken this to heart became obvious when he did not attend the Sena Chief’s grandiose funeral and neither did he even mention Balasaheb in his first campaign rally in Mumbai.

He also underscored the Sena had never acting in keeping with the NDA spirit. It had voted twice against the NDA's Presidential candidates by backing first “Marathi” Pratibha Patil and later on Pranab Mukherjee.  

Compounding matters, Modi rubbed Sena the wrong way, when, despite 18 MPs he gave it only one Cabinet berth in his Council of Ministers. Whereby, the so-called proud Marathi Manoos began to view this as political surrender to the Gujarati leadership.

The recent by elections in UP, Gujarat and Rajasthan wherein the BJP suffered a huge setback presented Thackeray Jr the perfect opportunity to hit back by asserting the Sena’s position in Maharashtra. But a tough talking Modi would brook no nonsense as he felt the roles were reversed now.

Suddenly, the Sena realized it was not only regaled to secondary status with the BJP busy extracting its pound of flesh but also faced an existential dilemma if it agreed to an equal division of seats. This would amount to surrendering its claim of being Big Brother.

After all, he rightly or wrongly felt the BJP being 34-years-old, should not dictate terms to a 48-year-old organization notwithstanding the 25 years old alliance. In fact, till the Sangh got its own majority in the Lok Sabha it always conceded a larger role and more seats to the regional satrap. Vajpayee, Advani, Pramod Mahajan and Munde treated the Thackerays with respect.

Unfortunately, Uddhav who not only lacks both his father’s charisma and clout and also keeps indifferent health, for reasons best known to him did not want to be seen as being treated like a minor stakeholder by the BJP as the Sena is an only Maharashtra Party. Clearly, he miscalculated.

Besides, Sangh old timers are not surprised at all. The split was a given and only a question of time. The BJP’s past alliances with regional Parties bears this out. Be it its Southern allies, Gowda’s JD(S) in Karnataka, Patnaik’s BJD in Orissa, Maharashtra Gomtak Party in Goa, its Northern buddies Mufti’s PDP in Kashmir, Chautala’s INLD in Haryana, Eastern cronies Nitish’s JD(U) in Bihar, Barooah’s AGP in Assam and Mamata’s Trinimool. The BJP chooses a local ally to piggyback and when it grows roots in the particular State, it dumps the parent to go solo.  

True, the Shah-Modi strategy has worked out in Maharashtra with the BJP emerging as the largest single Party fulfilling its dream of sitting on Mumbai’s Raj gaddi.  But it’s not all hunky dory. Already the DF factor has come in to play. No, I am not talking about Chief Minister Devender Fadnavis initials but the erstwhile Congress-NCP Democratic Front.

The shrewd Maratha supremo Sharad Pawar who enjoys a cozy relationship with Modi and Gadkari seems to have hit the jackpot. The NCP legislators who had gone underground licking wounds post elections are today strutting the corridors of power as if they continue to be in power. Predictable, as if it weren’t for the Party playing footsie, Fadnavis would not have won his controversial trust vote. Pawar is bound to extract his pound of flesh sooner than later.

Notably, this spells bad omen for Modi as NCP whom he described as the Naturally Corrupt Party has him by the short and curlies in the State. Worse, he knows this. The fact that Fadnavis shied from a division vote on the trust motion in the Assembly raises a big question mark on the minority Government’s stability.

More so as Mumbai’s is India’s commercial capital where Modi intends unveiling his big push for path-breaking economic reforms. For these to materialize and bear fruit he needs his Government which is perceived as clean, stable and long-lasting.   

What next? Politics is the art of making possible the impossible. Both Modi and Uddhav could in all probability get back together as they are natural allies. Pertinently, Sena continues to be part of the ruling NDA dispensation in Delhi even as it sits in Opposition in Mumbai, notwithstanding their mutual bashing.

Today, Modi has had his say and way. Tomorrow whether the partners will continue their Salman Khan-like Aata Majhi Satakli (you better not mess with me anymore) act or marry again remains to be seen. Bets, anyone? ----- INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)