Political Diary

New Delhi, 11 October 2014

Indo-Pak Skirmish

BOLI, NO. GOLI, YES

By Poonam I Kaushish

India is in the throes of two wars. One, the battle of the ballot through boli in poll-bound Maharashtra and Haryana. Two, adversaries-in-arms trade golis across the international border. Laced with biting irony. Two activists, India’s Kailash Satyarthi and Pakistan’s Malala Yousafzai jointly share the Nobel Peace Prize. Amidst this a charged Prime Minister Modi sent a clear no-nonsense message across to his counter-part Nawaz Sharif, “my army will shut your mouth”. And it did.

Resulting in a disquieting lull after 9 days of heavy firing along the Indo-Pak International Border and Line of Control (LoC) leaving 10 dead, 80 injured and displacing 30,000 in border districts. Even as a sullen but defiant Sharif reiterated Islamabad’s desire for peace.

Questionably, why did Islamabad undertake this misadventure? Obviously, it misread New Delhi’s invite to Sharif for Modi’s swearing-in ceremony as a sign of weakness. It spoiled the mood when its High Commissioner invited the Hurriyat leaders for talks in Delhi on the eve of Indo-Pak Secretary level meet resulting in cancellation. Pakistan Premier again raised the Kashmir issue at the UN General Assembly only to be ticked off by Modi and failed to evoke international response. 

Worse, Modi ignored Sharif but met his Bangladesh counter-part and Sri Lankan President. Rubbing salt, Pakistan's “all weather friend” China not only skipped visiting it recently but met Modi. This seems to have rattled the Pakistan Establishment and it reacted the only way it knows: Make a nuisance to get noticed.

Undoubtedly, the recent conflagrations underscore the Pakistani Army has firmly re-established itself as the head of the power troika. Besides, Gen Raheel Sharif needs to play the India card as it gives him the excuse to get away from anti-terrorist operations in North Waziristan. Alongside, though the challenge to Sharif’s Government from rivals Imran Khan and Maulana Qadri appears to have lost momentum these attacks are a win-win situation for both as tension with India is a good way to distract, evoke fear and unite Pakistanis.

However, what is worrisome for Islamabad is that militancy and terrorist strikes are not providing any tangible results, other than providing cover to push jihadists into India before winter which makes intrusion difficult. Also, it has been hit by a triple whammy: One, there is a perceptible decline in militancy, two Kashmiri separatist leaders like Geelani are too old and Mirwaiz Umar Farookh too weak to sustain the separatist struggle and Yasin Malik and Shabir Shah have yet to establish their credibility.

Moreover, insecure Pakistan faces twin dilemmas of international marginalization due its political and economic instability and India’s political stability and growing economy. For Pakistani fed on the belief, that ‘accepting the status quo with India is defeat’, has resulted in a perceived ideological perspective that it has to be at war to stand up and be counted.

This is forcing the Pakistani army to take calculated military risks against the back drop of its nuclear capability as a manifestation of its continued struggle which it must continue to provoke India. Moreover, due to it being a failed State a fundamentally dissatisfied Establishment seeks to increase its prestige through spread of its ideology and religion in pursuit of its revisionist policies. Furthermore, India’s suspension of the dialogue process has reduced Pakistan’s incentive to keep the peace.

As matters stand, there is nothing concrete to suggest that Islamabad is ready to address New Delhi’s ‘core’ concerns on terrorism. Nor is there any indication that Pakistan has changed its antagonistic approach to India. On its part, New Delhi’s decision not to hold talks underlines its conviction that the military cost will soon become too high for Pakistan.

True, there is no magic wand to erase 60 years of distrust, hatred and enmity. Islamabad refuses to give up its confrontational mindset of waging a “thousand wars” and nor does it share India's desire for friendly relations. Deep mistrust and lack of confidence is apparent. Yet the two have not rejected further dialogue.

Clearly, Islamabad needs to do a lot more than generating artificial illusions. It has to match its words with deeds. There is little scope for talking peace and friendship when it is busy infiltrating and attacking Indian border posts. By now Pakistan should have known that such tactics would not take it far in its bid to be on a par with India. It also underestimates, as it has always done, India’s ability to withstand such pressures and, if necessary, retaliate with greater force.

Pakistan needs to understand that India’s patience is wearing thin. Modi has made plain: Cross the red line and pay for it. If Pakistan wants friendly relations with India, it should abandon its adventurism on the borders, come to senses and engage diplomatically with India. There are no short cuts. India wants durable peace though alone it cannot guarantee non-escalation.

So long as the hawkish Pakistan army continues to call the shots, peace with India would be a mirage. Modi realizes only to well that in today’s geo-strategic political reality pragmatism dictate real politic. New Delhi needs an all-encompassing and multi-pronged strategy to deal with Islamabad. Happily, unlike the erstwhile Manmohan Singh Government, Modi is implementing a ‘zero tolerance to provocations’ policy.

As the recent incidents show, the Government and its security agencies need to remain ever vigilant, be one step ahead of Pakistan, its jihadis and act promptly vis-à-vis terror attacks and cross-border terrorism. India should refuse to be bullied and stop all trade and cultural exchange with Pakistan till it mends its ways.

At the same time, notwithstanding the threat of a nuclear conflagration the neighbours know damn well it is an empty threat as both cannot afford an eyeball N-war. Resulting in an ‘armed peace’. Tough responses to provocations and clear red zones are the best guarantee of nuclear peace in the sub-Continent.

New Delhi needs to follow a four pronged strategy: First, a swift, sharp and effective response backed by controlled escalation to Pakistan’s provocations. The Government should not be fooled that Pakistan could attempt another escalation. Second, we should expose Pakistan’s crass attempts to rake up tensions in the sub-Continent by adequately exposing its nefarious designs both in Kashmir and rest of the country.

Three, there should be no talks till such time Islamabad mends its ways and agrees to meaningful dialogue. Lastly, Kashmir post-flood reconstruction work must gain momentum and fair distribution. The State Administration must be encouraged to show empathy in distribution of relief to win the hearts and minds of Kashmiris.

In sum, both India-Pakistan need to understand the bitter reality that even as we have a choice for striking friendships, we cannot choose our neighbours. New Delhi needs to stay engaged with those who rule Pakistan. Be it via political-security back channels or by high military levels contacts. India wants peace but will not bow down to provocations. That is what leadership is all about. Else, Pakistan will face the harsh reality of continuing to reap a pungent harvest! ---- INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)