Open Forum

New Delhi, 23 September 2014

J&K Polls

GOVERNOR RULE IMMINENT?

By Sant Kumar Sharma

What next? This question is now uppermost in the minds of analysts and avid Kashmir watchers, who are waiting with bated breath as to when, not if, Governor’s rule will be imposed in Jammu and Kashmir. Even the most optimistic supporters of the National Conference and Congress coalition government are saying that elections on due dates are not possible.

Given the unprecedented floods, and its aftermath, there is large scale devastation. Rescue over, there is now the next stage of relief which has just kicked in. Rehabilitation, the third phase in a disaster, is starting or has started in some affected areas. But it is a long haul, perhaps a very long haul, which may take years for rebuilding, according to an estimate. However, some others feel that the Valley will bounce back in no time.

At one time, in the beginning of this month, when incessant rains hit the State, Chief Minister Omar Abdullah had bravely said that elections should be held on time. Later, when the Kashmir valley got marooned in floods, and the Government nearly vanished, there was no talk about elections.

Afterwards, when Omar emerged from the floods, and surfaced, having remained away from pubic eyes for some time, he candidly admitted that elections were the last thing on his mind, floods being so overwhelming, and destructive.

In his heart of hearts, Omar knows only too well that elections cannot be held at this juncture and a dose of Governor’s rule is around the corner. He is almost resigned to that fate but articulating the thought has its perils.

Incidentally, Omar Abdullah became the Chief Minister of Jammu and Kashmir on January 5, 2009, when his party, the National Conference (NC), cobbled together a coalition with the Congress. The NC had gone to the polls with its patriarch Dr Farooq Abdullah as its chief ministerial candidate.

Party insiders say that Dr Farooq Abdullah would have taken the mantle of CM had his hand not been forced by the Congress. They say that the Congress vetoed Farooq’s candidature and said that only Omar could be the CM. This was to bring younger Omar to the fore, in keeping with the Congress ploy of giving more prominence to then Party General Secretary younger Rahul Gandhi. Omar’s anointing to the top executive post was credited to his bonhomie with Rahul, and it was tom-tommed as continuation of a long-standing relationship between the Nehru-Gandhi family and the Abdullahs.

It bears mention here that running a State as troublesome as J&K is not an easy job at the best of times. Veteran Congress leader Ghulam Nabi Azad found this to his chagrin in June/July 2008 in the wake of Amarnath land row and could not complete his tenure as he had to quit, on July 7, that year, ahead of the scheduled date of November.

Where veterans fear to tread, Omar entered the scene with a lot of fanfare as a young honest man who could herald change. The honeymoon period barely lasted four months and in May 2009, the Shopian rape-cum-murders case came to the fore. The furore over the case hobbled Omar government.

The next year, 2010, was no better. In fact, infinitely worse as the word ``stone-pelters’’ was heard, and repeated, so often in the media that it attained a nearly cult status. There were nearly 120 deaths in the ``summer unrest’’ that year, and the government was found gasping.

In the last few months of the Omar Abdullah government, which has life till January 19, 2015, the unprecedented floods have posed a huge challenge. But it looks impossible on any realistic assessment that the poll process can be started in the next month, if it has to be indeed completed in time to avoid Governor’s rule.

The Election Commission of India (ECI) has decided to watch the emerging scenario from the sidelines. Nirvachan Sadan till now has not been too forthcoming. Officials had planned to make a visit to the State, which hasn’t had happened till now. However, the process of reviewing the preparedness is going on and the EC is seeking reports from all the Deputy Commissioners, who are also ex-officio district election officers. But it is not long before it will have to take a call and decide to have Legislative Assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir postponed.

If the elections are to be conducted in J&K on schedule, the poll process will have to be initiated in October. This does not look possible because of the enormity of the devastation wrecked by the floods in Kashmir, as also some higher reaches of Jammu region.

Already, the NC had faced an electoral nightmare in April/May 2014 Lok Sabha elections when Farooq Abdullah lost to Tariq Hamid Qarra of the People’s Democratic Party. In fact, it is for the first time in the history of J&K that the NC has suffered such a massive and comprehensive defeat in the Lok Sabha elections with all its three candidates losing to their BJP and PDP rivals.

The floods, perhaps worst in the living memory and comparable to those of 1902 or thereabout, have destroyed vast infrastructure, including roads, buildings, bridges, houses, schools and hospitals et al. They have also destroyed whatever little chances the NC-Congress coalition had of trying to salvage its fortunes. Add to this, that the two partners after much deliberations, decided to part ways and go for elections on their own.

Rebuilding, reconstruction and rehabilitation may take many, many years and the knives are out for alleged inept and inefficient manner in which the floods were handled. Omar had admitted that after floods hit Srinagar with full fury, there was no government! It got marooned in flood waters with no communication, no officials in site for rescue and no word of solace from any quarters to the affected. It’s a different story altogether how the Army, which has come under fire for years in the State, became the saviour.

As of now, by all available indication, the writing on the wall is a dose of Governor’s rule in J&K after the inevitable announcement of postponement of polls. When and for how long, time will tell. ---INFA 

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)