Political Diary

New Delhi, 28 June 2014

360 Turn on Naxal Policy

CAN NDA WALK ITS TALK?

By Poonam I Kaushish

It’s the season of controversies in political Delhi. Amidst raging row over the University Grant Commission nixing Delhi University’s four-year under-graduate programme, to a furious storm over Health Minister Harshvardhan’s Victorian views on sex education in schools alongside plugging “faithfulness” over condoms to control HIV, culminating  in Prime Minister Modi confession of being buffeted “within and outside” over ushering “positive change.” To the latest 360 turn on India’s Naxal policy. Yawn, so predictable!

Indeed, Home Minister Rajnath Singh’s razzmatazz jingoistic jargon of abjuring talks, instead giving a “befitting reply” to Red Terror is a radical shift from erstwhile UPA’s anti-Naxal strategy of keeping the door ajar for talks if violence was renounced. Singh’s thinking seems based on the premise that Leftwing extremists use talks as a shield to regroup so the Government should not waste energy holding discussions.

Sounds great, but it raises a moot point. Questionably, how does the Centre intend fighting the war? Has it thought-through an anti-Naxal policy? Does it know the Maoists DNA? Or have an accurate assessment of the challenge and what fuels their movement? Are the Reds driven purely by the “robbing Peter to pay Paul” syndrome?

It seems the Minister has failed to realize that impressive catchphrases, ‘we will curb it through administrative leadership and political commitment’, don’t add up to well-thought of strategies. Instead they only allude to a mumble-jumble of intentions and wishful thinking at best and complete catatonia at worst.

Haven’t we heard this line ad nauseum before? Yet, the problem refuses to go away. Think. Every Government worth its salt promises more of the same: arms, air power, courageous security officers and district magistrates and better local administration and leadership. The result? Zilch.

Plainly, the insurgency, which started in 1967 as a peripheral peasant uprising, has now spread to 20 States and 223 districts --- and is showing no signs of exhaustion (7 States have already slipped beyond State control). Worse, as the Reds becoming mightier and deadlier with each killing, the police helplessness is obvious.

The Maoists have killed over 3,670 people since 2005, equaling three deaths every two days according to the South Asia Terrorism Portal. Shockingly, only one Naxal gets killed for four deaths among security personnel and civilians. Add to this, the Maoists have seized over 3000 weapons including AK 47’s, bombs and RDX in the last three years. Highlighting, the Government ill-preparedness, our intelligence apparatus’s in-effectiveness and the abysmal lack of Centre-State coordination.

Intelligence sources assert the Maoist game plan is to physically occupy the countryside and surround the cities until they can force regime change. Simultaneously, they want to transmute the social structure through the barrel of the gun. Towards that end, they are getting moral & material support from Nepal, Pakistan’s ISI and China and have links with the Lashkar-e-Tayiba, HUL and other Islamic terror outfits. Their ambition is to have a ‘red corridor’ from Pashupati to Tirupati.

Shockingly, New Delhi is fighting this violent movement with not even one tenth of the total security forces required to contain it. Worse, more than 30% of the Centre’s outlay towards modernization of the police force in the Red corridor has not been released at all and in eight Naxal-hit States only 63% of the outlay was used in 2001-2011.

According to the Institute for Conflict Management Director, “The forces do not have the strength, training, transportation and arms to gain control over such vast swaths of territory. Until there’s a steady capacity-building, all deployments will be irrational. It will just be a nibbling away at the peripheries, and a lot of security forces will be killed.”

Look at two absurdities. The national average of the police-population ratio is about 1.3 policemen per 10,000 citizens. But in worst-hit Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh and Maharashtra the ratio of policemen to the public is a meagre 0.9 per 10,000 i.e hardly one policeman for 10,000 people!

What next? The time has come for the Home Minister and his counter-parts in affected States to realize the problem is not firepower, but systemic. Towards that end, they need to prioritize, undertake joint operations and set up joint unified commands for continuous monitoring of the arms profile of various Naxal groups. Along-with identifying sources and networks, coordinating intelligence gathering and a well-equipped police force. 

Further, the forces need to tackle the lacunae in Naxal’s ideological framework and simultaneously launch a political offensive with a humanistic vision. Two, the Government needs to deal with distortions in the social system on a war footing to alleviate poverty, ensure speedy development and enforce law and order strictly.

Three, take up land reforms with a fresh revolutionary zeal and approach. Look at the present dichotomy. With a majority of India’s population engaged in agricultural pursuits, one would expect the tillers to be rich. Instead, they are not only poor but continue to be at the mercy of the rich landlords.

Four, the Government must put calculated emphasis on intelligence-led and narrowly targeted operations seeking out the leadership, rather than dissipating the forces on chasing cadres. The State must seize and hold the initiative that it has long relinquished, instead of concentrating on territory. Given that the Maoists follow the ‘fish in water’ policy: which renders the guerrilla soldiers indistinguishable from common citizens.

Five, the police forces not only need reorientation but also equipped and mandated to deal with the Maoists. Only through genuine police reforms and dramatic augmentations in general policing capabilities can the State stem the rising tide of Red terror.

A counter strategy is also required for the urban locations where sympathy for the Naxal cause has been gathering momentum and finding some resonance. New Delhi fails to realize that normal deterrence doesn’t work against a faceless and fearless enemy who has no borders and no scruples. It needs to carry the fight into the enemy camp effectively. It is not enough to assert ‘we have might and muscle. One has to display that power.

The Government has to tread carefully, first identify the enemy and then deal with him. There must be a clear determination to contain the Maoists on their peripheries, to engineer their expulsion from areas in which their influence is nascent, and ensure that they are not able to expand into new areas.

Unless New Delhi employs superior counter-insurgency to put down violence, and good governance to remove the exploitation of tribals' by non-tribals, blood will continue to flow in the jungles and districts of India. With a judicious mix of the law and order and winning hearts this can be achieved. The forces need to be seen by the exploited masses as caring and sensitive to their anger and bitterness towards the Maoists.

New Delhi has sent a clear message that senseless violence wouldn’t be tolerated. The ball is in the Government's court. Can the NDA walk its talk? ----- INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)