Events & Issues

New Delhi, 11 March 2014

MNS Googly

BJP-SENA PUT UP BRAVE FRONT

By Nikhil Gajendragadkar

The Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) has joined the bandwagon of surprises this election season. It has indeed caught the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance off guard by declaring its candidates, and led to an unsavoury situation between the two partners, given an unexpected meeting earlier between Former BJP President Gadkari and MNS Chief Raj Thackeray. The drama continues to unfold much to the amusement of the other partners, Congress and the NCP. For the entry of MNS may well spell doom for the BJP-Sena, despite its brave front.

While the alliance looks to be safe, as claimed for now, Shiv Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray is finding it hard to accept its partner’s overtures. After a brief silence, his anger was out there in the open on Monday last, when he launched a scathing attack on the BJP by asking “Who is the leader of the party in Maharashtra?” His irritation stems from the fact that the BJP is still not distancing itself from the MNS, clearly a direct rival.  

Early this week, Raj Thackeray ended the suspense by declaring that the MNS will contest the Lok Sahba polls. He has declared seven candidates, and may announce more. This should be viewed as a big blow to the Shiv Sena-BJP alliance in the State, despite Raj having said that his MPs will support Narendra Modi to form the Government.  Interestingly, Raj chose the foundation day of his outfit to declare his decision, which has created quite a flutter in both the Shiv Sena and the BJP and has angered the former. Recall that Raj broke away from Shiv Sena eight years ago.

What is of interest is why former BJP President Nitin Gadkari chose to meet Raj in the first place. The meeting was kept under wraps but was not too secret. In the evening, while talking to the media Gadkari revealed the reason of the meeting. He claimed that the BJP requested Raj not to contest the General elections. In fact, it has undertaken a drive to consolidate the non-Congress votes, and as part of the strategy, it appealed to the MNS not to field any candidates, where the BJP-Sena alliance nominee is contesting. The strategy was being applied even in Bihar, where the BJP chose to rope in Ram Vilas Paswan’s LJP to its camp.

The BJP-Shiv Sena alliance will be contesting all 48 Lok Sabha. However, it has new entrants. Recently, the Republican Party of India’s Ramdas Athawale faction and Swabhiman Shetkari Sanghatana led by MP Raju Shetty, an organisation from Kolhapur-Sangli sugar belt, fighting for farmer’s rights and more importantly a staunch opponent of Sharad Pawar, have joined hands with the BJP-Sena. It is now called as the Grand alliance (Maha Yutee). Thus, the BJP-Sena will have to accommodate them, which means the two will need to concede some seats already held by them. With the MNS entering the fray, the equation will become more volatile and their position even more fragile.

Recall that in the last 2009 election in Mumbai, the MNS candidates polled more than one lakh votes each, which helped the Congress to win all seats in Mumbai. The MNS ate into Sena-BJP’s votes and handed them an embarrassing defeat. The BJP wants to avoid it this time and also wants to show that its alliance is better and stronger than that of the Congress-NCP. But Raj Thackeray seems to have thwarted their plans. Apparently, his decision will not benefit the NCP alone but the Congress-NCP combine. Outside Western Maharashtra the NCP and MNS are not very strong anyway.

Should one read any similarity in the political alignment in Bihar and Maharashtra, as the BJP would want Raj to believe? Not really. In Bihar politics, LJP and Paswan were completely sidelined. He himself lost the last Lok Sabha polls and his party was rejected in the State Assembly election too. With both the Congress and Lalu Prasad Yadav’s RJD keeping him hanging for an alliance, the BJP chose to step in, knowing very well that Paswan was not really a big catch.

But the situation in Maharashtra is different. Raj thinks of the MNS as a strong force, as his cousin has shown strength by attacking Toll Plazas in the State and has been against ‘non-Marathi’ people, organising attacks on Biharis and other Hindi-speaking population in Mumbai. Any equation with the MNS would not be good for the alliance. More so, as the BJP projects itself as a national party and links with the MNS may give a beating to the party’s image not only in the State, but also in others. Even the Chairman of BJP’s UP State campaign committee Rampati Ram Tripathi is learnt to have feared so.

Indeed, Gadkari’s secret meeting with Raj does create a problem, despite its denial. Uddhav has made his displeasure amply known in Sena’s mouthpiece, the ‘Samana’. Its impact has even impacted the BJP supporters, who expressed their anger and burnt copies of it in Pune. Surely, this doesn’t go well for both the partners. However, BJP continues to stick to its stand that the Gadkari-Raj meeting should not upset the Sena, as MNS has offered support to Modi! But Uddhav is not impressed and stated at a rally that the alliance does not need new partners.

Will the tension ease between and how soon, is surely going to be a question on the BJP leadership’s mind. The Party’s ambition is to form the Government at the Centre and to do so it needs at least 220-230 on its own. Others shall than come into the NDA fold, is what the expectations are. Thus, it can ill-afford any tension between its existing partners and should avoid equations with small parties like the MNS, which could play spoil sport.

Insofar as MNS is concerned, Raj Thackeray has maintained a studied silence. He did not react either on the meeting with Gadkari or on Uddhav’s outburst. He has professed support to Modi, and is fighting against not only Shiv Sena but in effect the BJP too. Of the seven candidates he has declared so far, six are against the Shiv Sena and one against the BJP. More surprises should be in store.   

As of now, the Shiv Sena-BJP’s hope for a straight fight against the Congress-NCP alliance is all but dashed, at least in Mumbai and Pune. Raj may be popular among the Marathi youth, and he has presence in some city corporations, but that doesn’t mean MNS is certain to win Lok Sabha seats. Not in cosmopolitan cities like Mumbai or Pune for sure. But there is more than meets the eye. Perhaps Raj is not really interested in winning. He may well be happy being just a nuisance value and train his guns only on the Shiv Sena in the hope of eventually being an alternative. In this battle of egos of the cousins, someone’s loss is going to be the others gain. The BJP will soon find out. ---INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)