Political Diary

New Delhi, 8 March 2014

Goliath Modi vs David Kejriwal

9 DAYS WILL SHAPE OR SHAKE INDIA

By Poonam I Kaushish

The countdown to elections has began which promises to be full of intrigue, back-stabbing, acrimonious even violent. Nine phases, spread over 36 days from 7 April-12 May to decide who will sit on India’s Raj gaddi: BJP’s Narender Modi, Congress’s Rahul Gandhi or a khichri Third Front satrap. Either way, moments in time which will shake and shape the country!

Notably, while the Congress and BJP are locked in a gladiatorial contest, the entry of AAP has inserted an X factor in the battle with Kejriwal’s audaciously taking on the ‘Lion’ in his Gujarat den. Thereby, pitting him directly against the charismatic strongman of BJP, wherein instead of a Modi vs Rahul contest it has turned into a NaMo vs Kejriwal match. As the Congress seems to be heading for it’s worst-ever performance, with its tally shrinking to double digits thanks to huge erosion of middle class support.

A classic David vs Goliath fight, call it what you may but the Modi-Kejriwal fight has become the talking point of the run-up to the polls. Queries range from is Goliath running scared of David? Why is Modi silent at barbs made by Kejriwal? Why hasn’t Modi declared where he will contest from? Is he scared, unsure and jittery to take on Kejriwal? 

For a man known for his argumentative and authoritarian personality NaMo for reasons best known to him is fighting shy of taking Kejriwal head-on and simply chooses to ignores him on the fallacious premise and that he poses no threat. Undeniably, a politically myopic folly and a risk Modi is taking at his own peril as former Delhi Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit belatedly realized following her defeat at the hustings.

One can understand why NaMo has donned kid gloves and showing remarkable restraint towards the activist-anarchist-maverick who-came-in from the blue. For himself and his Party Poll 2014 is a make-or-break exercise. But for Kejriwal the BJP would have been in power in Delhi. 

The second mistake Modi made was playing into Kejriwal’s hand by refusing to meet the “gatecrasher” and worse not instructing his Party men to ensure the AAP Chief’s unfettered journey across Gujarat. Resulting in him falling into Kejriwal's trap who not only succeeded in provoking Modi but also turned his ‘detention’ by the Gujarat police and smashed car windscreen, followed by lathi-wielding BJP workers hitting AAP activists across cities in to a media and PR goldmine which Kejriwal’s urban constituency simply lapped up.

Suddenly, the Hindutva Brigade appeared as the big, bad bully beating up the helpless aam aadmi. Moreover, when it appeared that only the final coating had to be applied to Modi’s larger-than-life persona, some of his Teflon seems to be beginning to peel off.

Worse, he refused to answer Kejriwal’s list of 16 questions ranging from KG Basin gas and solar power pricing to land, corruption etc. Samples: If you become PM, will you raise price of gas, doubled by the UPA to $8 per unit? Why does your Government buy solar power at Rs 13 per unit? Madhya Pradesh buys at Rs 7.50?

You claim to have eradicated corruption in Gujarat but people claim that Rs 10 lakh bribe is demanded for appointment of a ‘talati’ (revenue official). How many planes and helicopters do you have? Who owns them? How much do you pay or does someone else pay for them? Why don't you make public these air expenses? Tearing in to Modi’s development model, Kejriwal underscored that 400,000 of the State's farmers who had applied for electricity connections years ago had yet to receive them. “If you haven't even given a connection, how will you give them electricity?”

Modi's trouble is that as numero uno he has to battle on all fronts, internal and external. Till he was fighting the Congress’ Gandhi’s Sonia-Rahul everything was hunky-dory and a cakewalk interjected with dollops of sting. But since Kejriwal’s dramatic entry NaMo appears unsure and hesitant about how to target the new challenger and has failed to evolve a rational strategy against him.

Undeniably, Kejriwal’s political acumen of taking his opponent by surprise has unnerved the Sangh Parivar. Thereby, exposing the first chink in Modi’s rattled armoury. The AAP leader has demonstrated an uncanny ability to take up issues which capture urban India’s imagination and strike a chord across castes and communities and social strata.

The raison d etre for AAP’s meteoric rise in less than a year is Kejriwal’s  anti-corruption platform wherein he has successfully tapped into a vein of public anger over a culture of entitlement among politicians, rising prices and endemic graft. Consequently, on the face of it, Kejriwal seems  ahead in winning the battle for media space and on social networking sites, Twitter and Facebook and various apps being used to mobilize the tech-savvy among 149.5 million new voters.

Along-with impacting urban-dominated constituencies wherein even if he does not win more than a handful of seats he has had an impact beyond Delhi. Thus, every seat that AAP registers would chip away one number from the BJP's tally. The election will show to what extent this fledgling party can convert its appeal into votes in other States.

Clearly, Kejriwal has juxtaposed himself against Modi, relegating Rahul to the third place and is spoiling for a fight as he has nothing to lose. Having become a thorn in the BJP’s flesh, how many seats AAP will win is unclear, at best it would be a nuisance value and a spoiler for the Saffron Sangh’s march to rule India.

Notably, the larger challenge for the Congress, BJP and the regional Parties is to regain credibility in the face of criticism that they are all part of collusive politics that revels in crony capitalism and nurtures nepotism.

Undeniably, the BJP appears poised to make big gains, a comeback after a 10-year drought thanks to Modi energising the Party's rank and file. Unless, of course, it falls victim to its historic inability to live up to its promises juxtaposed with Modi’s authoritative ‘it’s my way or the highway’ machismo which make regional satraps and fence-sitters jittery.

The campaign has begun in real earnest only now. Presently, everything is up in the air. To counter Kejriwal Modi will have to work doubly hard, be as resourceful and innovative as his adversary and seize the initiative back. Will he be able to do so, remains to be seen, else the BJP and Modi can sigh: 272, so close, yet so far!

The dice is cast. All Parties need to realize two months is a long time in politics, anything and everything can happen. New permutations and combinations, caste calculations, defections-alliances galore, behind the scene confabulations et al. A spark can ignite a new chingari given there are never any full stops in politics. One lives to fight another day! ----- INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)